Continuous North Carolina Weather Chat (professionals, versus, American)

[Tarheelhombre]

#Joaquin now a major hurricane at 23.8N 73.1W. Only TC to touch that lat/lon in the NOAA database was Dennis in 1999

[Tarheelhombre]

GFS now says out to sea. A fluke or is it bowing to Euro?

[oneuvakind]

Originally Posted by Tarheelhombre

The trend in modeling has been toward North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. However, the Euro says out to sea.

My model says differently......

[LordHelmit]

Originally Posted by Tarheelhombre

GFS now says out to sea. A fluke or is it bowing to Euro?

Watch the Euro will trend west lmao

[carolinadawg2]

Originally Posted by LordHelmit

Watch the Euro will trend west lmao

Not happening yet. Other models starting to agree with a more easterly track.

[Tarheelhombre]

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad now

#Joaquin staying offshore actually means higher rainfall for the Carolinas believe it or not. #ncwx #scwx

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by SunnyKayak

Its up to a Cat 3 and looks like Nags Head and towns north could take a direct hit or on the strong wind side.
Only Jim Catorre location will be in the Bull eye area.

I ponder when McCrory is going to issue a state of Emergrency for OBX , coastal & Eastern Counties.

The rain predictions for most of the state is pretty high with high wind gusts, not looking good.

Whether one agrees with it or not, there aren't any watches/warnings issued for North Carolina yet by the National Hurricane Center.

The reason is I suspect because the models are "all over the map" in terms of where this storm will go.

Currently, it can directly turn into the carolinas, or go as far east as bermuda.

Prob will start getting into warnings watches I suspect by later today....

[carolinadawg2]

Latest projected track is much further east...may not even make landfall anywhere in the US.

[CouponJack]

You are only talking about "one projected track". See below on the model disagreements from the latest 11am update.


After 36 hours, the guidance remains
very divergent. The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models
forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the
Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecast
a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to
sea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a
generally northward motion.

[Tarheelhombre]

Catastrophic rain predicted by the National Weather Service