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Charlotte's CSA and the Triangle's CSA are adding people at similar absolute number rates year over year: Charlotte ~208K, Triangle ~204K totals since 2010. However, with over 33K of Charlotte's being added in South Carolina in the same time period, the Triangle is actually adding more numbers to the state's population.
That said, a key piece of information missing from that simple objective analysis is how many new Charlotte and Triangle residents are just moving to those metros from within the state itself. Many counties are shrinking in NC and many leaving those counties don't leave the state; they simply move to another part of the state. The same sort of migration is true for almost every state.
NC in general is an inbound state. Metrics from moving companies' data confirm what we all already know anecdotally, that much of the growth is coming from out of state. I just don't know the full story of the growth data to parse it out further.
I've seen sites that track counties' migration patterns from within state as well as other states and abroad. You can click on a county and it shows which other counties in the US have net positive or negative flows related to that county. I'll see if I can find the link.
EDIT: Here's one of them. A bit clunky to add up every county in NC vs other counties, but it's there.
EDIT2: There are tabs with raw data saying how many moved to/from another state or another county within the state. Here's Mecklenberg's:
Mecklenburg County, North Carolina
Population (1 yr and over):
956,307
Movers from a different state:
39,495
Movers to a different state:
28,133
Movers from a different county, same state:
24,338
Movers to a different county, same state:
25,631
Movers from abroad:
7,167
I've seen sites that track counties' migration patterns from within state as well as other states and abroad. You can click on a county and it shows which other counties in the US have net positive or negative flows related to that county. I'll see if I can find the link.
EDIT: Here's one of them. A bit clunky to add up every county in NC vs other counties, but it's there.
EDIT2: There are tabs with raw data saying how many moved to/from another state or another county within the state. Here's Mecklenberg's:
Mecklenburg County, North Carolina
Population (1 yr and over):
956,307
Movers from a different state:
39,495
Movers to a different state:
28,133
Movers from a different county, same state:
24,338
Movers to a different county, same state:
25,631
Movers from abroad:
7,167
A nice chunk of those who moved to a different state simply moved across the border and are still in the metropolitan area. Same goes for those who moved to a different county.
A nice chunk of those who moved to a different state simply moved across the border and are still in the metropolitan area. Same goes for those who moved to a different county.
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Someone can move from Mecklenburg to Union or Wake to Johnston and still be in the MSA and result in a zero sum game. Moving from outside a metro but from within the state to a metro also becomes irrelevant because it doesn't move the needle in the state. It only tells us that the metros are possibly more important than the state itself. The same would be true of Atlanta in Georgia or any other growing metros in the states that NC is chasing. The data is really needed at the metro level to understand what's really happening and I don't know anywhere that that can be calculated easily without painstakingly going through each county in a metro and, even more complicated, across state lines in the case of state line straddling metros like Charlotte. The thought of trying to figure that out with county level data gives me a headache.
I would say it can definitely pass up all the "cold" states.. despite the threat of global warming people like warm areas. I myself am considering South Carolina.
It will surpass those states and maybe florida before the century is over. The climate is simply nicer and prettier than Georgia.
There's absolutely no way to tell what could happen 80+ years into the future; it's futile trying to make a prediction that far out. And there are really no drastic climate differences between most of NC and GA.
It will surpass those states and maybe florida before the century is over. The climate is simply nicer and prettier than Georgia.
Florida is a huge wildcard if massive sea level rise predictions come to pass this century.
Unlike almost every coastal state, NC doesn't have a large metro on the coast. Yes, I know, Wilmington....but it's not large and the city itself is actually 30 feet above sea level.
NC's majority population and its growth centers are significantly inland and that could position the state well for refugee style growth from other states if the sea rises only 8-10 feet as projected. This sort of change would wipe out significant portions of coastal Florida and other states and leave millions homeless (me included but I'll be dead).
Georgia has a similar situation to NC with Atlanta being 1000 ft above sea level.
Wow, thanks guys and gals for giving such descriptive replies! As a Raleigh native, I've been amazed to see so much development in our city and apartments and houses popping up here and there and I was thinking, holy cow, will our state have more people than Ohio or Pennsylvania? Thanks again!
Florida is a huge wildcard if massive sea level rise predictions come to pass this century.
.
Yes. Surely Florida will surrender their metropolises to an expected 1'-4' sea level raise by 2100. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise . Yes, climate change and sea level changes are serious, but lets not go chicken little.
Yes. Surely Florida will surrender their metropolises to an expected 1'-4' sea level raise by 2100. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise . Yes, climate change and sea level changes are serious, but lets not go chicken little.
One foot is not going to put South Florida out of business but 4 feet will be VERY difficult to manage, and 8 feet, as some models suggest is the worse case scenario, would be devastating. These people will need some place to go and It think that NC would get more than its fare share if the more dire predictions start to show signs of being possible. It won't take until the end of the Century for people to start fleeing; it will happen in a few decades if the sea shows signs of these predictions. I'm not being chicken little either. I am literally living next to a huge infrastructure project where the city is raising an entire neighborhood's infrastructure including roads, sidewalks and seawalls by 3 feet while installing new pumping stations that prevent water from backing up into the streets during high tides.
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