does the term "a fixed income" bug you? (broker, how much)

[mathjak107]

the time to think about selling was last october, with 50% of the risk now out of the market an investor should be like a kid in the candy store. now is the time to buy... could we drop more? sure but at this level over time you should make alot of dough.... remember its buy low sell high.... human emotions make us do the reverse and its dangerous

almost every first year out of a big drop are 30% plus years, we even had some as high as 54% ,most of the gains come very early on way before even the first hint that things are getting better,in fact they usually look gloomier than ever. miss the first 4 weeks and usually you miss 30% of that gain, by the 2nd month you missed 1/2 the run up..... its a waiting game.... no one knows how long the wait but the way i look at it a cd or money market is a guaranteed loss after taxes and inflation. 100% guaranteed... ill wait it out in equities myself

[Gaffer]

I couldn't agree more. I assume your talking October '07', not '08'.
Somewhere I heard the statistic Dow Jones has gone up an average of %10.22 since 1930. Don't know how true that is, but doesn't sound unplausable.
Alot of people are loosing a lot of money selling scared over the recent past!

[mathjak107]

yes october 07.... that was the time to think about selling... now its just about what to start adding if you bailed out or rebalancing your portfolio if you didnt

[Gaffer]

Yup - wish I had say 100k sitting in a cookie jar somewhere right now. Would love to go on a buying spree then sit back and watch it grow (hopefully)

[rockky]

I have a question for you guys.

What has been historical trends....is that still a valid barometer? I mean we aren't talking microeconomics anymore. We had a country that was manufacturing out the wazoo. We were supplying the world as well as gravy here in the USA. The traditional blue collar jobs are gone. What's out there are low pay service jobs for many. Even the fields of education and medicine are filling holes with minimally trained, low pay jobs. The professionals are being forced to stretch themselves to the max. I did a stint a couple of years ago doing some support work on the maternity floors of a couple local hospitals. Many of the mothers were on welfare. The nurses were caring for women who had more financial security than the nurses themselves. They weren't making boo-coo bucks, and their medical insurance costs were astronomical. Many of the pros might have qualified for WIC support for their own children. I found some of the info they shared with me to be shocking. I also did some part time hours in the office of a psychological practitioner. We were doing intakes for people that the state covered all the costs of their care. The workers doing the intakes had no medical coverage from their jobs. Between booking patients, one woman was desperate to find somewhere to get a mammogram for free for herself.

Those 'old days' appear to be gone, and the prospect doesn't appear to be good for them to reemerge. Even people with degrees can't find jobs that pay a living wage. The nations that were 'poor' in modern history are going to own us....if they don't already.

Even for little, old ladies it's a macroeconomic situation.

If that sounds stupid, I apologize. Fact is I don't know what I'm talking about. It's more of a gut sense than anything I can base on real knowledge.

[Summering]

Originally Posted by rockky

Thank you, nkotb. His death was totally unexpected...totally healthy. It was determined to be a genetic blood disorder, and both our kids shared a 50% chance of carrying the gene. Ten years ago I thought it was fairly rare. Now I tend to think more people have it than is realized, but the deaths are attributed to heart attacks or embolisms. Perhaps because he was in shape otherwise, the ER doctor ordered blood work right away. Otherwise we never would have known.

After spending several weeks in a chair, I realized that complaining or casting blame wasn't going to get me out of the chair. I had to move in some way....very small steps. I put the farm on the market and was out of there within 5 months. I went into a condo. No mowing 11 acres, plowing the 1/4 mile lane on a 1949 tractor, etc.

We did plan. There was a life insurance policy...and my little job in special education. The pay was very low, but I had bennies. It is a very high stress profession though. I'm not 62 yet. Also I discovered investments that my husband had made. He didn't tell me about them. That's another story. However, in the last couple of months much of that on-paper money has disappeared. I couldn't touch it until I reached 59.5 without penalties. I was counting on those funds to be my insurance policy for smoother living. I will make it. As long as I have a warm hearth, and medical expenses don't do me in, I'll make it.

One thing that I will tell any young woman.....always have something to fall back on. Learn a profession. Get an education in some area. Be able to earn a living wage. (As if anyone is making a living wage out there! sigh) I believe that thinking is standard now, but women still don't earn equal pay. With the divorce rate and other unexpected life circumstances, always be prepared to support yourself and your children.

Women who are approaching 60 and those older came from a different time and mentality about the roles of women as wives and mothers. If you were a good girl and took care of everyone else, all would be well. Take care of yourself first!! It's the only way you can really care for those you love.

Another thing we have in common Rockky....The on paper money disappearing in the last few months. But, I know that many who put their pensions in the hands of a financial planner........lost funds too. I look at the planner now and just have to shake my head. But, then again........the markets crashed, and thats life! Click the heels and start up again......
My hubby had two major, major heart surgeries due to a "genetic" issue in his family also........So when retirement was offered early, he had to be in line to take that. Thank goodness the company offered a good life insurance ( for that time anyhow.......) as you can't get it once you have had heart issues.
Like Math said........that is important to have. I have always felt that way.
Anyhow........I have enjoyed catching up this eve, and listening to everyone ....your all very interesting. You know that, right?

[Gaffer]

Well, Summering nice to have another interesting forumite join us.
Rockky - your comment sounded neither uninteligent, uninformed or stupid in any way. As a matter of fact quite the opposite and I have been wondering the same myself. I have not heard any "financial experts" on Bloomberg or anywhere else discuss the effects of the macroeconomy and its projected effects on our US economy or markets. One thing is for sure, other markets are gaining and, it seems, gradually taking over the US. I can't recall the last time I bought a hard good that wasn't made in China, S. Korea, Taiwan etc or a car or piece of electronic equipment that wasn't made, or partially made in Japan or a computer 'geek' service that isn't located in India or Turkey and on and on. We borrowed $500 Billion from China - why? The balance of trade is way out of balance and our tarrifs on imported goods is no where near adequate enough to help. Foreign companies and governments are buying up way too many interests in the US.
To answer your question on how the macro economy will effect markets in the US? _ I don't know. I'm hoping they will keep pace with european and asian markets, but that may be a little too naive. I'm thinking it will somewhat negatively effect the 10.22% average Dow gain I mentioned earlier, but not enough so that investing in US markets is a bad bet.
Sorry for the run around, but I'm just not sure and haven't heard any well informed input.

[mathjak107]

i think we are headed overall for lower future returns but still far ahead of anything else... while the old days are gone here we have entire new economies all over the world fueling growth, investing here and abroad . emerging markets hopefully will take up the slack.

[rockky]

Thanks, Gaffer. "I don't know" is a honest answer.

My planner keeps referring to past market trends. I'm not sure that is what we need to base choices on right now. It's different world than it was 75 or a 100 years ago.

People wanted to come to the United States to seek their fortunes and improve their way of life. That may still be the reason for many, but not like it used to be. Of course there was no public welfare then.

Ireland lowered their taxes and revitalized their economy. They were, for many years, in dire financial straights. So was Australia. I briefly met their past Prime Minister and heard him speak. He took a hard-nose attitude and improved conditions for the long-term residents. I certainly can't say things improved for the natives, but you know what I mean.

Maybe I'm just in a bad mood. My paint is getting fuzzies all through it from the carpet we just ripped up. My break time is over. Vacuum time!

[rockky]

I hope you're right math. I really, really do.

I wanted to use those investments this June to make major improvements to a property I've managed to hang on to. I've got it, but it needs so much....a white elephant concept. Real estate is certainly down, but not back to what we put in it in 1989. It's still a mini gold mine within a mile of the beach.
Nothin' like the mansions that have gone up down here....but those high end properties aren't selling either. No one has the work here in southern DE like they did a few years ago. It's an employment wasteland in construction.