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There's such a thing as an older (relatively close-in) desirable suburb, you know.
I definitely agree! The close-in suburbs here are definitely desirable.
One big difference between Nova and older cities like Detroit is that people here aren't simply moving in one direction--they aren't abandoning inner ring suburbs to move outwardly. There are some people who move out to Loudoun for less expensive housing, but much more often people move to Loudoun because they got a job in the Tech Corridor. You also see people moving closer to DC if they get a job in DC.
The only part of Nova that I think might have to deal with people abandoning it to move to newer homes would be out near Woodbridge or Springfield. But then again, those areas have been re-inventing themselves lately and I think their future is bright, especially with BRAC coming in.
I think once all of that land has become all divided up everywhere, it is almost impossible to reverse - so it'll remain suburban in nature, and just simply age, with ever increasing traffic.
Generally, next is developers realize they can shift that population from what becomes older Fairfax with the older houses and such, to a new county - for NOVA, Loudon County. The developers and everyone else advertise like crazy, buildboards go up, and people make money hand over fist just simply 'moving' the population ever expandingly outwards in search of newer houses, newer strip malls, without the traffic (for now). Jobs and buildings and such pop up all over in the next county. All the new houses are out there, but more and more traffic follows, etc.
This is not the future; it's well under way and has been for years. Eastern Loudoun is all jammed up with development, and we already have bad traffic (among commuter routes, anyway). And Western Loudoun has growth controls in place that basically sent expansion skipping past it, north into West Virginia, northwest towards Winchester, south towards Gainesville.
This is not the future; it's well under way and has been for years. Eastern Loudoun is all jammed up with development, and we already have bad traffic (among commuter routes, anyway). And Western Loudoun has growth controls in place that basically sent expansion skipping past it, north into West Virginia, northwest towards Winchester, south towards Gainesville.
It's the housing developments in West Virginia where I think you're most likely to see future ghost towns. People who do buy homes there will discover it's just too far to commute, and there won't be any nearby jobs in WV for them to turn to.
Winchester and Gainesville, OTOH, will continue to attract businesses, and as a result they really won't be commuter towns (for most future residents). In other words, as time passes an increasing number of people will move there because they have jobs in the area. And those who moved to those areas initially to commute to jobs in the Tech Corridor will eventually take jobs where they can work fairly close to where they live.
I also predict Gainesville will see an explosion in retirement housing. The retiree population of Nova will grow faster than any other group, and they'll be attracted to places like Gainesville, where housing is less expensive but they can also be relatively close to family in Nova.
With that being said pending approval of my transfer request I'll be in Pittsburgh within a few months. I've finally realized myself that cul-de-sac-dominated suburbia isn't for me, and instead of trying to change that while bashing my head against a brick wall it's better if I just put my tail between my legs and go somewhere that I actually feel like I belong. I can do a world of good for the Steel City, and I look forward to taking a very active role within my new neighborhood (as of right now Mt. Washington and Lawrenceville are my top two contenders).
I'm a huge fan of Pittsburgh. I love those two neighborhoods. So many interesting neighborhoods throughout Pittsburgh, that I noticed. Good luck with the potential transfer...are you already thinking of some new potential name changes?
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Originally Posted by FairfaxGuy73
I don't know about all of the counties, but Fairfax is trying to locate dense housing and business around development centers. There are about 15 that it has designated.
I'm curious, where are those? Mostly inside the beltway or outside the beltway? Any link to that, or remember a few of the locations?
BTW, I don't think we'll see a decline in population. In fact, I think we'll continue to see growth. Just not the crazy growth we've had in the last few years.
I just think it's important to differentiate the difference between population growth and development growth. Sure credit bubble will slow development but the demand for jobs will keep people coming in. The future will be weird because there will continue to be more and more jobs than people in Fairfax County at least. South Riding will rise again .
areas where I see higher densities likely or possible
Tysons corner - several new metro stops, a county plan to increase density/walkability
Merrifield/dunn loring - new mosaic project, several developable parcels walking distance to metro, close to beltway
Vienna metro area - Metrowest, some other possibilities?
Reston - new metro stop
Herndon - New metro stop
Springfield - metro stop nearby, some parcels with potential, IIRC. WOuld be nice if could tie in to walkable Kingstown, but probably not likely
Huntington Metro - Anything developable here?
Baileys Cross Roads - will be the terminus of the Columbia Pike Light Rail, some parcels suitable, considerable existing density. I think someone already announced a plan for something there?
Old Town Fairfax - no metro, but decent bus service (?) proximity to GMU, historic walkable grid, recent new developments, some remaining parcels with potential?
I can't think of any places NOT near metro stops other than OT FFX likely to take off. Not Annandale, I am afraid. Not central Vienna. Not Mclean. And other than the silver line and the Col Pike LR, what new transit is in the pipeline? An extension to Ft Belvoir? Could that lead to new development possibilities?
I disagree with folks who think that any population spurt will end after the economy improves. RestonRunner put it the best when he said that people move here for jobs jobs jobs. The fact is that there will be more jobs vs population as time goes by. More people will try to commute into the area and there will be more pressure to build housing for people. Right now, the projection is for NOVA to increase from a population of two million people in 2000 to three million in 2050.
I don't know about all of the counties, but Fairfax is trying to locate dense housing and business around development centers. There are about 15 that it has designated. If you look at the county's comprehensive plan, they do expect to preserve many of the neighborhoods. What you'll have are single family homes that are more the realm of rich people while so many others will have to live in those horrible little holding cells called condos. Mostly traffic will become unbelievably choked. Right now the region has no solution for it. I love how even the Metro is dependent on most of its users driving to get on the train. Real nice scenario. Also strained resources like schools and parks. People already elbow and cut in line here, so more aggressive behavior and general misery in public environments.
I agree with this post...
Young people moved here in droves long before the "Great Recession" and they will continue to move here long after. The DC area has always been somewhat of a magnet for people to begin their careers. Northern Virginia isn't an exception to that.
Fairfax has designated several areas as places to concentrate high density growth..the largest of course being Tysons Corner. I think you will of course see other areas that develop at higher density rates like Merrifield, Alexandria (the county portion), Springfield and of course along the Dulles Toll Road.
I could also foresee the Fair Oaks area and perhaps Vienna Metro surrounds start to develop at higher densities. I believe it already started with the MetroWest development a few years ago. The developer purchased a small older neighborhood of maybe 50 homes and successfully applied to have it rezoned into a community of 2,000+ residences, office space and retail. I am not sure what the status of that project is after the economy went bust but I could definitely see that type of development occuring elsewhere near transit nodes.
It took me an hour today to get between Tysons Corner and Reston due to the congestion. It's just over 7 miles door-to-door. I seriously hope Tysons Corner evolves into a "city" sooner rather than later for the sake of the sanity of those of us who work there. Another hellish afternoon commute like the one I endured today (where it took me 20 minutes JUST to pull from a side street onto Greensboro Drive!) will have me jumping to Pittsburgh AHEAD of my transfer! LOL!
RR, best of luck with your job transfer. Pittsburgh sounds like a much better fit for you.
Thanks. I've done nothing but talk (and talk and talk some more) about moving to Pittsburgh, and as I near my 24th birthday I'm realizing you only live once, so why should I waste the entirety of my youth somewhere that I'm so unhappy? Even if my transfer request is denied I'd likely ride out life here through the end of my lease in May 2011, looking for a new position in another government agency (or in the private sector) in Pittsburgh in the interim. At this point I'm even willing to deliver newspapers in the morning, work at a grocery store, and then bartend or deliver pizzas at night to make a living in Pittsburgh while job-hunting if all else fails. I'm a "city guy", but I also don't want to live in a rooming house just to live in DC. In Pittsburgh I can get one roommate and live in a nice 2-BR apartment for $400/month (including a few utilities). That's unheard of around here, unless you're way out in Winchester.
What good am I doing annoying everyone on this sub-forum when I can just move somewhere that I love instead of trying to transform someplace hate into someplace I can tolerate?
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Originally Posted by Caladium
As for the luxury homes being built in Great Falls, I think there will continue to be a market for homes in that level. They appeal to the corporate executives who (IMO) will definitely continue moving here. Moving a corporate head quarters is not a decision that's made lightly, and the tax issues and other concerns that drive corporations to relocate will continue over the next decade, at least.
For me I just hate seeing so many trees coming down when there are "For Sale" signs EVERYWHERE already in Great Falls. I just don't always buy the whole "Build it, and they will come" mantra. It seems like many executives prefer McLean over Great Falls, anyways, possibly due to the better proximity to DC and Tysons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caladium
The growth spurt I was talking about is from recent college grads, entry level employees, and mid-level employees who choose to move to the DC area because they don't think jobs are available anywhere else. When the economy improves, some of those people will continue to move here, but others will choose to take jobs in other cities. None of those people would have bought homes in Great Falls, anyway, so it doesn't affect the developer of a property like that.
Many of us have moved here simply because the recession has scared the heebie-jeebies out of us. If I was still in Scranton I'd likely still be working at Lowe's in the evenings and on weekends to supplement a $35,000 salary as an entry-level staff accountant at a manufacturing plant. Some of my friends who graduated with me and chose to stay in the area still don't have work in their field. We haven't felt the recession here in Metro DC at all with the malls and restaurants always jam-packed and BMWs and Audis at every red light, but many other parts of the country are truly struggling. 70,000 people in my hometown area now live in immense poverty. That's staggering.
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Originally Posted by Caladium
BTW, I don't think we'll see a decline in population. In fact, I think we'll continue to see growth. Just not the crazy growth we've had in the last few years.
Agreed. Regardless the percentage growth will decline no matter what. For example, if you go from 100,000 people to 200,000 people, then that's a growth rate of 100%. In order to maintain that growth rate you'd then have to add 200,000 people to get to 400,000 people and then 400,000 people to get to 800,000 people, and so on. Yes, some will always be lured here because they want to be near the most powerful city in the free world, but many others (not just myself) came here because this is the only place we had nibbles. I'm so sorry, in hindsight, I was so miserable here (and made it no secret), but I will NEVER EVER again move somewhere just for a job.
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Originally Posted by Tiger Beer
I'm a huge fan of Pittsburgh. I love those two neighborhoods. So many interesting neighborhoods throughout Pittsburgh, that I noticed. Good luck with the potential transfer...are you already thinking of some new potential name changes?
Pittsburgh has nearly 100 distinctive neighborhoods, many with their own little downtown business districts, churches, parks, schools, etc. It really feels like a bunch of small towns of 5,000-10,000 people sewn together like a quilt to make a city of 300,000. I like the "bones" that Pittsburgh has. Yes, it has potholes, some crazy weather, high taxes, and urban blight, but it's also the nation's "Most Livable City", is the world's 20th "Most Beautiful City" and was also just rate the nation's 4th Best City in Which to Raise Children. It was a slum for a long time, but in the past decade it's really begun to turn itself around. I want to live somewhere that has a sense of "place", if that makes sense. Reston just feels too transient and "young" for me. I love walking down a street, admiring architecture, and picturing the immigrant who built that home through blood, sweat, and tears back in 1890 for his growing young family. I just love history, and you don't get that in much of NoVA, sadly. For the people who live in places like Cascades they obviously don't "need" to be near history. I do. I grew up in a historic city (Scranton, PA). I need to live in a similar environment again.
I love Pittsburgh because it's a city that needs more people who want to move in and make a positive difference. A young professional like me moving in to rehabilitate an older home, join a neighborhood association, volunteer, raise my family, open my own firm, etc. would be very welcomed and much-appreciated there. Fairfax County, on the other hand, needs more people like it needs a hole in its head! LOL! If Yac would be so kind in several months I'd like to ask for my final name change to be "PittsburgherInParadise" (to borrow from Jimmy Buffet's "Cheeseburger in Paradise")
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LOL!
