Will real estate prices drop (contractor, compensation, tax)

[Caladium]

Originally Posted by oneasterisk

Here's me crossing my fingers.

I'm crossing my fingers for you too. Hope you get it!

[kevinm]

The banks will hold the properties that they have forclosed on off the market until prices recover. They will not sell at a loss if they don't have to.

[Caladium]

It seems like prices have gone up slightly here in Loudoun.

[robbobobbo]

Originally Posted by anonymous703

But are jobs and incomes continuing to grow? If the feds get anywhere with their plan to shrink DoD contracts sector, then that will have a significant impact on incomes. (Not necessarily jobs, as I suspect the feds will end up absorbing most of what gets cut.)

I don't think this will impact incomes if it happens. The government pays more to the contracting company than what they'd probably pay to a GS employee, but that is not what the employee actually gets.

For example, the government pays my employer (salary + $n) for me. If the government created a Federal position and got rid of the contract, they'd no longer pay $n, but I don't think they'd pay much, if any, under my salary.

As to housing prices, prices in Alexandria city have risen. I believe people are still paying under the seller's initial price, but overall prices are up.

[anonymous703]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

You seem to be implying contractors make more than federal employees. I'm not sure that's true.

I don't know how much stock to put into those studies that compare federal vs private sector pay on a wide-scale basis. The last one I saw (from the Cato Institute IIRC) suggested that the feds made more than the private sector. Now, oneasterisk posts a link to an article discussing a BLS study that concludes private sector employers pay 25% better than the feds. So, can both be true?

What I can do is speak to my own experience -- we do contracting work for a non-DOT agency, so none of us are cleared. If I were to compare salaries and qualifications about those who I know, I can tell you that if you assume a BS = GS7, MS = GS9, and PhD = GS11, then my company tends to pay new hires comparable to steps 9 or 10 of the resepctive level. (In fact, my own personal salary is equivalent to a high GS10 or mid-grade GS11, and I was hired with little to no experience straight out of grad school.) I couldn't be more than a GS9 if I worked for the government -- I know, because I've looked at postings for which I'd be qualified.

I'm sure the local DoD contractor jobs hire people of similar backgrounds, so the pay is probably equivalent, if not higher, because an active clearance commands a premium on the job market. My point here is that when we talk about true professional jobs where graduate work is recognized, in the areas I'm somewhat familiar about, private sector pays better than the public sector, and these are the types of jobs they're trying to reign back in.

Oh, and don't forget those contractors who go over to Iraq and are making extremely good money ($100k for six months of work I've heard) alongside very poorly paid E3s and E4s.

So yeah, I think private sector makes more money. Even if the feds have a better benefits package, "benefits" doesn't pay the mortgage.

[oneasterisk]

Originally Posted by Caladium

I'm crossing my fingers for you too. Hope you get it!

Thanks I appreciate it! Happy thoughts, happy thoughts

[Forehead]

I'll be curious about the OP's question as well, since I'm looking to move in 4-5 years. I don't want housing prices to drop necessarily, there's been enough pain on that front already. But if they would be polite enough to hold steady for the next half-decade, I'd be fine with that.

[Caladium]

Originally Posted by Forehead

I'll be curious about the OP's question as well, since I'm looking to move in 4-5 years. I don't want housing prices to drop necessarily, there's been enough pain on that front already. But if they would be polite enough to hold steady for the next half-decade, I'd be fine with that.

I'm not a realtor, but my guess it they will increase slighty, but not much. So that's almost as good as holding steady.

[ghett61]

Originally Posted by anonymous703

Oh, and don't forget those contractors who go over to Iraq and are making extremely good money ($100k for six months of work I've heard) alongside very poorly paid E3s and E4s.

I know someone who went to Iraq and got triple pay for a 9 month stay. If you stay a year then you get the salary tax free.

[anonymous703]

Originally Posted by robbobobbo

I don't think this will impact incomes if it happens. The government pays more to the contracting company than what they'd probably pay to a GS employee, but that is not what the employee actually gets.

For example, the government pays my employer (salary + $n) for me. If the government created a Federal position and got rid of the contract, they'd no longer pay $n, but I don't think they'd pay much, if any, under my salary.

As to housing prices, prices in Alexandria city have risen. I believe people are still paying under the seller's initial price, but overall prices are up.

How much do you know about federal hiring practices (serious question)? I just know for me they'd have to bring me in as a high-step GS10 or mid-tier GS11 for me to keep my pay. I have no knowledge of federal hiring practices, but is it realistic to expect them to bring me in at that grade when I could only qualify as a GS9 (I don't have the years of experience to overcome that.)