CRA Study: Loudoun Will Have Fastest Job Growth in the next 20 Years (Arlington: schools, university)

[Caladium]

Interesting article in today's LTM. Apparently a recent study by the Center for Regional Analysis concludes the DC metro area will add 1 million net new jobs in the next 20 years, and that Loudoun County will be leading the way in job growth. The number of jobs in the county is predicted to increase from 140,381 in 2010 to 287,290 in 2030.

More than 1/3 of the growth will be in professional and technical services.

It's also estimated the metro area will need to add about 2 million more workers to replace retirees and employees who move from the area.

Metropolitan Washington Economic Index | Center for Regional Analysis

[oneasterisk]

That's not surprising. Loudon has been one of the fastest growing areas around here for a while now. Maybe my next investment property should be there...

[brooklynborndad]

CRA is Steve Fuller at GMU.

This is interesting

The Economics of Stephen Fuller: How a wonky academic became a major player in the local real-estate business - Washington City Paper


"I think sometimes there’s a perception that Steve has been overly optimistic in his forecasts,” says Dave Robertson, executive director of the Council of Governments and a former student of Fuller’s at George Washington. “My guess is it’s closer to right than not.”
Some of that perception could be rooted in Fuller’s projections of massive regional growth as a result of spending on the Iraq war, which never quite came to fruition. It may also come from the fact that there is always an upside to forecasting in the Washington region—the federal government keeps the lows from getting too low, and makes happy projections a generally defensible bet. To be fair, he did sound notes of caution during the go-go years of 2005 and 2006.
But Fuller knows his reputation. “Someone told me the other night that they discount whatever I say by 10 percent,” Fuller says, noting that most economists are pessimistic and the media is always reporting negative news. “I’m a glass-is-half-full person about life. And I’m trying to provide some balance.” He prefers to say he’s “enthusiastic,” not optimistic; either way he says he looks at data analytically."

Note Bene - even if you discount the LC growth figure by 10% for a Steve Fuller effect, its still quite impressive. Im not posting to suggest LC isnt likely to grow dramatically. But I do think the article about Fuller is interesting.

[Caladium]

I was surprised to see LC projected as growing faster than Fairfax, especially since LC has so many growth restraints for the western half of the county. Also, Fairfax has been doing a really good job lately with courting California companies to move here. Maybe the Silver Line is part of the reason? (Although the Silver Line mostly has stations in Fairfax.)

[VRE332]

The problem with Loudoun is RT7, and the rediciolus Greenway. I just wont live in a county without a highway.

[Caladium]

That was indeed an interesting article. The author seemed to be impressed by Fuller. I was intrigued by the wide variety of local and world leaders who turn to him for long-range economic forecasting.

Originally Posted by brooklynborndad

CRA is Steve Fuller at GMU.

The article was about Fuller, but for the record CRA is run by a small group--it's not just one person. According to their web site there are four major players, as well as a small group of research assistants and affiliates. John McClain, for example, is another of the directors--he also has impressive credentials.

Faculty | Center for Regional Analysis

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by Caladium

I was surprised to see LC projected as growing faster than Fairfax, especially since LC has so many growth restraints for the western half of the county. Also, Fairfax has been doing a really good job lately with courting California companies to move here. Maybe the Silver Line is part of the reason? (Although the Silver Line mostly has stations in Fairfax.)

Fairfax has a much larger base, and much less vacant land (even comparing to only LC east of rte 15). Most job growth in Fairfax will be in office space in densifying places (esp Tysons Corner). Fairfax is somewhat more tied to federal contracting than LC, I think.

And Fairfax has older schools, more poor people, etc. Companies moving to Loudoun don't have to share in the burden of the regions social problems, at least not so much.

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by Caladium

That was indeed an interesting article. The author seemed to be impressed by Fuller. I was intrigued by the wide variety of local and world leaders who turn to him for long-range economic forecasting.



The article was about Fuller, but for the record CRA is run by a small group--it's not just one person. According to their web site there are four major players, as well as a small group of research assistants and affiliates. John McClain, for example, is another of the directors--he also has impressive credentials.

Faculty | Center for Regional Analysis

one of those four is a research assistant.

Fuller built the model, fuller brings in the business. He's got enough work to support a deputy/senior economist, a junior economist, and an RA. Good for him.

[Caladium]

Originally Posted by brooklynborndad

one of those four is a research assistant.

???? I'm not sure why this would be an issue (does it affect their economic predictions for Loudoun County?), but for the sake of accuracy all four of the major team members are faculty.

Dr. Fuller is a Professor. Mr. McClain is a Senior Fellow and Deputy Director Center for Regional Analysis. Dr. Anacker is an Assistant Professor. Dr. Sturtevant is a Research Assistant Professor (not the same thing as being an RA; a professor with this title has a rank that parallels other professorships. The difference is these professorships are funded by grants; they are not employees of the university and don't teach classes). Before joining the faculty at GMU Sturtevant spent four years as County Demographer for Arlington County. She is hardly some student working as a research assistant.

By the way, this program does have research assistants, all of whom are doctoral students.

But really--what difference does it make? It doesn't change the findings. Oh well, even if I am a little puzzled by the point of this side topic, I do appreciate that it's drawing readers to this thread. Sounds like we have found our fun livewire thread for this weekend.

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by Caladium

???? I'm not sure why this would be an issue (does it affect their economic predictions for Loudoun County?), but for the sake of accuracy all four of the major team members are faculty.

sorry, I read quickly. Research Assistant Professor is a title I have never seen before. Congrats to GMU on being innovative, and confusing.

My experience is that a research center, like a small firm, can be centered around one individual, despite the hiring of other associates. When I saw this I thought "fuller" and when I looked it up that was confirmed. AFAICT CRA's rep is based on Fuller, and their business is based on the model he built. Its like in the old days saying "DRI is Eckstein".

but yeah, I see he has FOUR associates. or major players, or whatever CRA chooses to call them. I doubt anything major happens there without Fuller's agreement.