Phillies fans at Nationals stadium (Washington: unemployment, community college, calculated)

[FindingZen]

Philadelphia sports fans definitely have a boorish reputation that we're simultaneously proud and embarrassed about. The most egregious infractions, however, are more likely to happen in the "cheap seats" at the home field...not that such transgressions should be tolerated there, either.

I would say as the Nationals' fortunes improve, so will the attendance for all of their games. Kudos for the management to be proactive in trying to counteract the ticket sales to their closest geographic rival.

Of course, being a Phillies fan, it can be a bit confusing for me at first when I see people walking around with red caps with white lettering...

[PSUinNoVa]

I completely forgot about this thread...

It is pretty shocking that you know even less about statistics than you do about baseball, given how low you set the proverbial bar on the baseball front. Do you actually think that comparing correlation coefficients between two teams using inter-temporal data can tell you anything-- anything at all-- about the a fan base's support for a team? This ridiculous exercise might get you a solid D in your freshman statistics course.

There are a number a reasons why comparing correlation coefficients in the manner that you have here is complete nonsense. The reasons why this is true will clearly be lost on you, so I won't waste my time getting into the details. I will give you a hint though: variance matters. If you spent more time thinking and less time talking/posting, perhaps you could one day conquer your innumeracy. Until then, you are better off letting your ignorance slink along in a cloak of silence.

Originally Posted by LocalGuy61

Wow, you know how to cherry pick a particular year to "prove" that Philadelphia is a better baseball town than Washington. Congratulations! Look at the complete history of Phillies attendance starting with 1980 (the last year they won the WS prior to 2008, in case you're new to being a Phillies fan and don't actually know anything about team history). In my opinion, the only so-called (mythical?) baseball towns that most people would agree exist are St. Louis, Boston, New York and Chicago. New York and Chicago are even iffy since only the Cubs and Yankees have the kind of fan support that might justify this label, while the White Sox and Mets do not. Philadelphia is most certainly not a baseball town. It's like nearly every other city with an MLB franchise, which means that attendance goes up with winning seasons and down with losing seasons.

As a basis of comparison, I ran correlations of wins (X) and attendance (Y) for every season from 1980 through 2011 for both the Cardinals and the Phillies. The Cardinals are a good team for comparison since they're also in the NL and have enjoyed a comparable level of success as the Phillies during this time period (Phils were in the playoffs 9 times and in the WS 5 times, while the Cards made the playoffs 12 times and the WS 6 times). The correlation between attendance and wins for St. Louis is +.44, and for the Phillies it's +.55, indicating that Phillies fans are more likely to attend when the team is doing well than Cardinals fans are. I should also point out that the average annual attendance in St. Louis during this period was 2,806,994. In Philadelphia it was 2,389,636. This is an average difference of nearly half a million fans per year, even though St. Louis is a smaller city than Philadelphia. By the way, the average attendance in DC for the 7 years that the Nats have been playing here has been 2,112,619 for a team that has averaged 70 wins per season and has never sniffed the playoffs.

Philadelphia is no more a baseball town than DC, and far less of one than St. Louis. So, get off your high horse.

[TheseGoTo11]

Think it says something when so many move from Philly to the DC area, but very few move in the other direction.

[SPHokie]

Originally Posted by TheseGoTo11

Think it says something when so many move from Philly to the DC area, but very few move in the other direction.

Its my understanding that the job market in PA has been pretty bad over the past decade or so.

That's also the reason there are so many Pittsburgh Steelers fans in the DC area.

[JHG722]

Originally Posted by TheseGoTo11

Think it says something when so many move from Philly to the DC area, but very few move in the other direction.

Yes, it says DC is one of the most transient cities in the country.

[LocalGuy61]

Originally Posted by PSUinNoVa

I completely forgot about this thread...

It is pretty shocking that you know even less about statistics than you do about baseball, given how low you set the proverbial bar on the baseball front. Do you actually think that comparing correlation coefficients between two teams using inter-temporal data can tell you anything-- anything at all-- about the a fan base's support for a team? This ridiculous exercise might get you a solid D in your freshman statistics course.

There are a number a reasons why comparing correlation coefficients in the manner that you have here is complete nonsense. The reasons why this is true will clearly be lost on you, so I won't waste my time getting into the details. I will give you a hint though: variance matters. If you spent more time thinking and less time talking/posting, perhaps you could one day conquer your innumeracy. Until then, you are better off letting your ignorance slink along in a cloak of silence.

You used a lot of text to say pretty much absolutely nothing to refute my argument. Why not give it another try, professor? As for correlations and variance, I probably know a lot more about it than you pretend to. The correlation between wins and attendance in St. Louis (r = .44) indicates that the variance in success on the field explains only about 19% of the variance in attendance. However, the variance among wins in Philadelphia during that same time frame (r = .55) explains 30% of the variance in game day attendance. That's a pretty noticeable (perhaps even significant!) difference if you ask me. Philadelphia is not a baseball town. Face it.

[JHG722]

Originally Posted by LocalGuy61

Philadelphia is not a baseball town.

lol

[LocalGuy61]

Originally Posted by JHG722

lol

Good point. I should have said that the idea that Philadelphia is a baseball town is laughable. It's just like nearly every other city; fans come out when the team wins and they stay away in droves when the team loses.

[spencgr]

First, I am a Phillies fan, from Philadelphia.

Second, I spent a week in St. Louis last fall an was ASTONISHED as to how much that city loves their Cardinals. No matter where you were, or what time of day, they were either playing the game, or replays of the game, or highlights of the game.

8:00 am - coffee/ bagel shop = highlights from the previous game
12:00 pm - local lunch spot = replay of the previous game
5:00 pm - local sports bar = current game or previous game (I couldn't tell)
8:00 pm - upscale, trendy bar = current game

After seeing this, I don't think Philly is quite the baseball town as St. Louis, probably because allegiances are split between Eagles, Phillies, Flyers, and Sixers.

But, I will say that Philly is a thousand times the baseball (or football or hockey or basketball) city that Washington is.

Sorry.

[LocalGuy61]

Originally Posted by spencgr

But, I will say that Philly is a thousand times the baseball (or football or hockey or basketball) city that Washington is.

Sorry.

Of course, that's ridiculous hyperbole. I don't think that Philadelphia has ever drawn 20 million fans in a season.