Just How Blue Was Fairfax in 2012? (Arlington, Alexandria: how much, private schools, college)

[JD984]

Originally Posted by tarp

What kind of real estate site are you using that shows results from Maryland when you search for houses in Centreville, VA?

I grew up in Centreville in an affluent area that was full of Romney signs. Just drive up Pleasant Valley Road. Check out the houses near Cox Farms. Chantilly has plenty of that but most of it is in the Loudoun County part of Chantilly. Most of the richer areas off Waples Mill Road have either Fairfax or Oakton addresses.

Most of Fairfax will continue to become more "blue" as the area becomes increasingly diverse and the right-wing types move further out to flee the diversity that scares them so much.

I assume Stpickrell used a well-known local site that allows you to search MLS listings regionally by simply inputting a term like "Centreville," which will pull up properties in both Virginia and Maryland. The C-D moderators delete specific references to that site on the public forum, since it's sponsored by a real estate broker.

We should all stipulate that Centreville and Chantilly have some very affluent areas that went in Romney's favor, even though most of the Centreville and Chantilly precincts went for Obama. That's a somewhat different, and harder to discern, picture than you see in places like Great Falls and Clifton/Fairfax Station, where either all or the vast majority of the precincts went for Romney.

I suppose Fairfax might become more "red" again if the Republicans found a way to appeal to a wider base in the future. And there are some parts of the region that are less diverse than Fairfax or Loudoun (such as mostly-white sections of North Arlington and Montgomery County) that have been solidly "blue" in recent elections.

[CAVA1990]

My precinct in the Mount Vernon district voted for Romney. We were the only one that did. I feel so 1% now.

What's ironic is we all go vote at one of the lowest ranked elementary schools in the county.

[tarp]

It's not solely the "diverse" vote that is voting democrat. It's the type of people who are staying in these areas these days - mostly graduate-school educated, high earning upper-middle-class folks. The lower class folks who vote "values" and work blue collar jobs are now living in places like Stafford or Culpeper.. they can no longer afford Fairfax County.

[novajs]

Fairfax county also has a sizable Asian population. I think Obama got like 70% of that community. They are not necessarily "values" voters but more like highly educated progressives. And their children are not going to grow up joining the tea party. I see Fairfax county be solid blue (60%) for the foreseeable future. My kids' elementary school had its own election - 72% for Obama.

[GustavoFring]

Originally Posted by novajs

I see Fairfax county be solid blue (60%) for the foreseeable future. My kids' elementary school had its own election - 72% for Obama.

I remember in my youth when I attended a private Christian School. They had a mock election in 1996, and Bob Dole won something like 95%-5% in an area that has voted democrat for probably 40 years. What a fantasy land those people lived in.

[stpickrell]

Originally Posted by tarp

What kind of real estate site are you using that shows results from Maryland when you search for houses in Centreville, VA?

I grew up in Centreville in an affluent area that was full of Romney signs. Just drive up Pleasant Valley Road. Check out the houses near Cox Farms. Chantilly has plenty of that but most of it is in the Loudoun County part of Chantilly. Most of the richer areas off Waples Mill Road have either Fairfax or Oakton addresses.

Most of Fairfax will continue to become more "blue" as the area becomes increasingly diverse and the right-wing types move further out to flee the diversity that scares them so much.

A site I cannot mention here There's Centreville, MD in Queen Anne's County.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by novajs

Fairfax county also has a sizable Asian population. I think Obama got like 70% of that community. They are not necessarily "values" voters but more like highly educated progressives. And their children are not going to grow up joining the tea party. I see Fairfax county be solid blue (60%) for the foreseeable future. My kids' elementary school had its own election - 72% for Obama.

I'm somewhat curious what ILD has to say about that.

[stpickrell]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

I'm somewhat curious what ILD has to say about that.

I think the presence of Ex-Senator Macaca may have skewed things somewhat.

Cool story bro: S.R. Siddarth (the original Macaca) was on Thomas Jefferson's state championship winning Scholastic Bowl team back in 200(mumble). As Scholastic Bowl Commissioner, I awarded him a nice medal he's hopefully kept somewhere and shook his hand. This was, of course, before he determined control of the US Senate.

[IndiaLimaDelta]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

I'm not so sure Cucinelli will make it past the primary. If McAuliffe runs unopposed there will likely be a fair number of Democrats who will cross over to vote for Bolling.

Sadly for you, grasshopper, RPV has gone convention in lieu of primary. So sad Democrats can't vote in internal Republican elections. But who's for archaic things like the freedom of association, right? The Neanderthals!

Originally Posted by tarp

Most of Fairfax will continue to become more "blue" as the area becomes increasingly diverse and the right-wing types move further out to flee the diversity that scares them so much.

"Right-wing types" are not fleeing diversity. I laugh at this because affluent liberal enclaves are some of the most segregated neighborhoods around. Leftists like to preach "diversity" (not true diversity, but skin colors and ethnic tokenism), but like to live in rich, safe white (or white-Asian) areas while sending kids to private schools with similar ethnic makeup. Bro, puh-leese.

I hate to burst this bubble, but exurbs and outer suburbs are increasingly popular with successful ethnics who are actually doing the fleeing -- from ethnic ghettos that they associate with all kinds of unpleasant things, including, yes, lack of this "diversity." Apparently they like to live with white folks.

Originally Posted by tarp

It's not solely the "diverse" vote that is voting democrat. It's the type of people who are staying in these areas these days - mostly graduate-school educated, high earning upper-middle-class folks. The lower class folks who vote "values" and work blue collar jobs are now living in places like Stafford or Culpeper.. they can no longer afford Fairfax County.

Yeah and I bet you are one of those folks who don't realize that tea party type folks are better educated and higher income on average than the general population.

The Democratic Party has increasingly become a party of very high income elites mixed with very low income folks, with a variety of interest groups (trial lawyers, unions, professional race baiters, etc.). The middle class is still very fertile grounds for Republicans.

Originally Posted by novajs

Fairfax county also has a sizable Asian population. I think Obama got like 70% of that community. They are not necessarily "values" voters but more like highly educated progressives. And their children are not going to grow up joining the tea party. I see Fairfax county be solid blue (60%) for the foreseeable future. My kids' elementary school had its own election - 72% for Obama.

Obama racked up big numbers among Asians, whose political allegiance is the least settled among non-whites in this country (Bob Dole carried a majority back in '96). Party ID is the weakest with them than any other group.

More so than Hispanics, they can make as "natural" conservative ethnics as one might find in the US. And quite a few ARE "values" people in that a significant portion of Asians are evangelical Protestants. Somewhat amusingly, the Ivy League and other elite universities have become more "evangelical" in recent years solely on the basis of the fact that a large number of Asians are (at Yale, for example, 90% of the members of the Campus Crusade for Christ are Asians).

The GOP has done an extremely poor job of reaching out to Asians (as it has with Hispanics). That should change.

One thing to keep in mind is that politics, like war, is a mutually-learning and -imitating activity. I am as skeptical of a leftist realignment today as I was of a conservative realignment back in 2004.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

Sadly for you, grasshopper, RPV has gone convention in lieu of primary. So sad Democrats can't vote in internal Republican elections. But who's for archaic things like the freedom of association, right? The Neanderthals!.

Thanks for the heads-up. I just submitted my application to represent my fellow Betty Forders there. If anyone else wants to, here's the link:

http://www.billbolling.com/convention-delegate-sign-up/