Nova bubble 2.0? (Reston, Manassas: affordable houses, buyers, schools)

[homebeyer2013]

Originally Posted by mormegil27

I am a federal worker. And the fed workforce is loosing jobs every month - about 1000/month locally over the prior year.

(1) many people are retiring. The combo of no raises, furloughs, and the stock market recovering has convinced many to leave. That probably doesn't effect housing - people who retire often keep living in their home, especially when on the lower end of the pay scale which most Feds are. It may, however, skew the job market stats if they report net job gain or loss. The fed loses workers, but private jobs are created, so parity is the net.

(2) young people are leaving. The combo of no raises, furloughs, benefits being less than what the boomers enjoy, and low relative salaries are pushing people out. Of course, with the govt experience young workers can land better salaries in the private sector and may not leave the area, which doesn't turn over housing, well maybe upgrades. No net gain or loss of job in that case, either, though I think young people are much more likely to leave the area for a new job, which then would be a loss.

There have been articles written about the worker crisis inside the fed - you should google it. But yeah, half the country wants no fed govt, and they are getting what they voted for. I think those states really should be allowed to have autonomy, but I've always been more of a states rights proponent.

I'll take that as a "No."

[mormegil27]

Originally Posted by homebeyer2013

I'll take that as a "No."

"No" to your layoff question? I thought you were joking. I personally know 2 in my own agency in the last year alone, who knows how many there are that I don't know. I can be laid off at any time if congress permanently cuts our budget, which has been known to happen. I can also be let go for sub-par performance because my existence depends on bringing in funding from external sources.

I had heard similar can't be laid off stories before, but now I know it was just conservative nonsense. I've also heard that the Heritage foundation is selling the memorial bridge for a bargain price.

I take it you are not a federal employee?

[homebeyer2013]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyLmru6no4U

Obama called the debt "unpatriotic," and that was 9 trillion Dollars ago.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...dministrators/

I'm sure this is an isolated incident of waste.

[mormegil27]

Ha! Yeah, Obama said a lot of things that didn't come out in the wash. Seems off topic, but mayhaps you suggest that the enormous debt has gone out the fed's pocket and straight into dc's housing market? An astute point, I agree, especially when it comes to contractor salaries. Did you know that good ole Eddie Snowden, contractor extraordinaire, had a $120k salary with no degree? I wonder who paid his salary? ... Oh, right.

10 trillion dollars! Where is dr evil when you need him?

Edit: the post above is a bit over the top. Do they let that sort of thing fly here on this forum?

[homebeyer2013]

Originally Posted by mormegil27

Ha! Yeah, Obama said a lot of things that didn't come out in the wash. Seems off topic, but mayhaps you suggest that the enormous debt has gone out the fed's pocket and straight into dc's housing market? An astute point, I agree, especially when it comes to contractor salaries. Did you know that good ole Eddie Snowden, contractor extraordinaire, had a $120k salary with no degree? I wonder who paid his salary? ... Oh, right.

10 trillion dollars! Where is dr evil when you need him?

Edit: the post above is a bit over the top. Do they let that sort of thing fly here on this forum?

I don't think they've been calling them "Beltway Bandits" since the Beltway was actually built because they're honest. I worked for a minority contractor with a fake Ph.D. and a jet.

How about a line graph of DC housing prices since 1994, with an overlay of number of persons with security clearances? Any chance of similarity?

...

[airjay75]

mormegil27 - Hopefully my earlier posts did not convey a sense that I think federal employees have faced challenges in recent years that are no big deal. Furloughs for feds can be difficult, particularly if you are one of the many feds (just like there are many Americans) living paycheck to paycheck. With certain Congressman attacking federal employees every chance they get and no end to our current budget difficulties in sight, it can be difficult to have a positive outlook on federal employment. I, too, could make much more in the private sector. I actually became a federal employee in late 2012 and I came from the private sector where I was making almost twice what I do now. For me, the salary cut was worth it to have a job where I could actually have a life outside of work, but that doesn't mean I will always feel the same way, particularly if Congress continues to cut our pay and benefits beyond what they already have.

The only real point I was trying to make earlier is that, while federal employees have faced a lot of challenges in recent years, they are still a large workforce with many different positions and many different agencies. I am skeptical that they are putting downward pressure on the housing market (yet). I think it's probably more of a mixed bag. There are federal employees, such as myself, who have bought houses in the past year, and there are federal employees, such as yourself, who feel incredibly squeezed and that housing is unaffordable in this area. If federal employees continue to have their wages frozen (or, effectively, cut), it will eventually hurt the housing market. I'm just not sure we're there yet. But, I could very well be wrong too. Perhaps the private sector is simply outpacing federal employees so much, that it is more than making up for any downward pressure from federal employees.

[mormegil27]

Originally Posted by homebeyer2013

I don't think they've been calling them "Beltway Bandits" since the Beltway was actually built because they're honest. I worked for a minority contractor with a fake Ph.D. and a jet.

How about a line graph of DC housing prices since 1994, with an overlay of number of persons with security clearances? Any chance of similarity?

Maybe save the discussion of yaksukcox for a thread on bad drugs.

I'm with you there on both counts.

Oh, just to clear confusion for other readers, my edit above was in response to an inflammatory comment made by yaksukcox that was removed by the admin.

[mormegil27]

Originally Posted by airjay75

Perhaps the private sector is simply outpacing federal employees so much, that it is more than making up for any downward pressure from federal employees.

I think that is likely correct, for now at least. Plus the high rent issue.

[newgatedenizen]

Originally Posted by mormegil27

Given these trends, how can the home appreciation trend in DC metro, and nova in particular, continue on a bubble inflating median sale trend, and with little job creation?

Opinions?

I guess nothing lasts forever but people still keep moving to NOVA. As long as that continues it will keep some pressure on housing.

County Totals: Vintage 2013 - U.S Census Bureau

[Ex bubba]

Originally Posted by mormegil27

I am a federal worker. And the fed workforce is loosing jobs every month - about 1000/month locally over the prior year.

(1) many people are retiring. The combo of no raises, furloughs, and the stock market recovering has convinced many to leave. That probably doesn't effect housing - people who retire often keep living in their home, especially when on the lower end of the pay scale which most Feds are. It may, however, skew the job market stats if they report net job gain or loss. The fed loses workers, but private jobs are created, so parity is the net.

(2) young people are leaving. The combo of no raises, furloughs, benefits being less than what the boomers enjoy, and low relative salaries are pushing people out. Of course, with the govt experience young workers can land better salaries in the private sector and may not leave the area, which doesn't turn over housing, well maybe upgrades. No net gain or loss of job in that case, either, though I think young people are much more likely to leave the area for a new job, which then would be a loss.

There have been articles written about the worker crisis inside the fed - you should google it. But yeah, half the country wants no fed govt, and they are getting what they voted for. I think those states really should be allowed to have autonomy, but I've always been more of a states rights proponent.

Many contractors out of work or taking radical salary cuts due to Fed new contacts/rye competes with 30% lower salary ranges and fewer positions. If you're IT maybe good for first job but unsure about future. DOD is getting killed. Fed workers are retiring and younger workers want to live closer in to save on commute and be where the action is. Fed hires have slowed significantly. Not enough homes in sweet spot and probably too many in $600k and abv.