Mini-Housing Bubble In NOVA? (Arlington, Alexandria: house prices, best school, high income)

[TheWatchmen]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

Don't know about others, but considering my parents were a bank teller (working 2 jobs actually) and carpet salesman, and we barely scraped by growing up, we certainly weren't milking the system. And in return, now that I make a lot more money, and my parents have gotten much better jobs in there later years, I think we have more than paid back into the program. But I concur, there can be a lot of sleezeballs out there that take advantage of it, leaving less for those who actually need it. Regardless, I still think people who use Free Lunch as a political divide and to essentially discriminate are ignorant and lack any actual experience in life. Some people weren't fortunate enough to be born into well off families, those who scrounge and work 2 jobs just so their kids can have a better chance at life are the kind of people we should be striving to have in our communities, not those that we want to separate ourselves from.

Those who disagree should grow up, in my opinion.

I think all students in the county should be provided a free breakfast and lunch, and I don't think it would be astronomically expensive. However, the students that are accepted into the free lunch program also receive a host of other benefits, like free gym uniforms, reduced price parking spots at high schools (It was $15 for FARM students, vs. $200 for non-farm students when I was growing up).

Lake Braddock? Pffff. Hard knock life there . I went to Falls Church, the cesspool of degradation of the county.

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by fcyolo

You said little johnny which most people assume to be a white child.

Lol, well when you assume you make a complete ass of yourself... not so much me though. Johnny happens to be a pretty popular name for all sorts of people, ranging from Asian, to Indian, to American. Little johnny is also a reference to Little Johnny Jones - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia which has to do with anti-european sentiment in America caused by influxes of immigrants last century.

You crack me up though. Thanks for the laugh.

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by TheWatchmen

I think all students in the county should be provided a free breakfast and lunch, and I don't think it would be astronomically expensive. However, the students that are accepted into the free lunch program also receive a host of other benefits, like free gym uniforms, reduced price parking spots at high schools (It was $15 for FARM students, vs. $200 for non-farm students when I was growing up).

Lake Braddock? Pffff. Hard knock life there . I went to Falls Church, the cesspool of degradation of the county.

Wasn't Falls Church recently noted as one of the best cities in america or something? I'm not saying going to Braddock was gangster high or anything, the point being, there are bad elements every where, even where schools are high income and low immigrant as evidently statistics showed Braddock was. So picking where a kid goes to school to specifically avoid demographics that are not as well off, or have more immigrants, is pure xenophobia without any evidence that it actually benefits the kid. I would have done the same if I had gone to Lee or Falls Church or Langley because all of them are safe enough so I would have been able to focus on learning. Now if you want to talk abotu high crime areas, sure, if a child has to contend with constant fear of being stabbed or massive drug problems at the school, then obviously that affects their ability to learn. I've yet to see any stats showing any school in Fairfax actually has that problem.

[TheWatchmen]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

Wasn't Falls Church recently noted as one of the best cities in america or something? I'm not saying going to Braddock was gangster high or anything, the point being, there are bad elements every where, even where schools are high income and low immigrant as evidently statistics showed Braddock was. So picking where a kid goes to school to specifically avoid demographics that are not as well off, or have more immigrants, is pure xenophobia without any evidence that it actually benefits the kid. I would have done the same if I had gone to Lee or Falls Church or Langley because all of them are safe enough so I would have been able to focus on learning.

The City of Falls Church is consistently touted as being one of the best to live in - but it has its own school system, and its own governing system. The areas surrounding the city of Falls Church - Bailey's Crossroads, and the 22042 side of Falls Church - are most certainly not. They are low income, high immigrant, lots of multifamily unit type of areas.

I'm not entirely knocking these areas - I grew up in them, and circled back eventually. I live in an area directly adjacent to Bailey's Crossroads, and there is a lot that I love about it here. No kids yet, but I'll have to think long and hard about the school situation before the husband and I have kids.

[FCNova]

I thought this was a fairly interesting thread about real estate values until it got totally destroyed by a pissing match. Now I remember why I haven't been to this forum in like 6 months

[FindingZen]

The detour of this thread into discussing school demographics has become circular and not helpful for the OP. Returning closer to the original topic will maximize the life of this thread and minimize infractions.

[fcyolo]

Originally Posted by airjay75

You can keep saying the same thing over and over again. That doesn't make it true. You have offered zero evidence of this claim, particularly as applied to specific schools or neighborhoods in Fairfax County.



I regard school quality as important factor, but not a decisive factor in Fairfax County. I think there are opportunities at almost all of the schools in Fairfax County for a motivated student to succeed and an unmotivated student to not succeed. Most people who disagree with this have only average statistics from some website to quote me, not any actual experience with any of the lesser regarded schools of which they speak. But, I'm not really sure why you're choosing to quote a post of mine from a different thread. My points on this thread, if you were able to understand them, are actually quite different.

Here is evidence that good schools insulate you from housing downfalls.

Here are the charts for higher and lower performing high schools inside the beltway over the past 10 years including the housing bubble crash of 2007. You can see that historically higher performing schools hold their values and continue to climb in prices.

Falls Church City (George Mason High), fully recovered upward momentum
Falls Church City County Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow


McLean (McLean high) Took a hit but fully recovered and continual upward momentum
Mc Lean Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow


Vienna Tysons (Marshall High) Took a hit during the downturn but now fully recovered and continual upward momentum
22182 Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow


22207 (Yorktown High School)
Fully recovered continual momentum
22207 Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow


22042 (Falls Church High)
Not Recovered, massive hit during the down turn
22042 Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow


22041/22044 (Stuart High)
Not Recovered, massive hit during the down turn
22044 Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow
22041 Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow



22153 (LEE High School)
Not Recovered, massive hit during the down turn
22153 Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow

[tysonsengineer]

A real chicken and egg conundrum, those school districts could have higher test scores because they have a lot of affluent residents in affluent areas which retain their value because they are long established areas that are desirable for a series of factors (including stable schools). In case you didn't notice, housing values in Arlington and DC also retained most of their value through out the crash, because living closer in has become more desirable especially in walkable neighborhoods like Falls Church and Vienna (your examples from your post) as opposed to Springfield/Centreville more traditional post WWII suburbs. There are good restaurants, nice parks, etc. Arlington you can make a somewhat decent case the schools could be a rationale, but I've never heard anyone touting the prowess of DC schools.

So how do you explain that paradox, that during the same downfall DC saw some fairly stable prices too.

Oh right, because its about jobs and local amenities (of which schools is one), not 100% about schools.

DC Zillow report: I'll just live it right

http://www.zillow.com/washington-dc/home-values/

[ACWhite]

The graphs are interesting, but you are cherry-picking data, and not accounting for other factors that people here have pointed out affect price at least as much as do schools.

All you have to do is cherry-pick a few zip codes in DC and Alexandria City, alleged not to have the best schools in the area, such as:

20001 Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow

and you will see that house values have curve shapes that are directly contradictory to your hypothesis.

You also need data well before the peak of the bubble to make the case. Many neighborhoods that had a big crash had a larger %-age uptick pre-bubble than did most of Arlington, so they had further to fall.

[fcyolo]

Originally Posted by ACWhite

The graphs are interesting, but you are cherry-picking data, and not accounting for other factors that people here have pointed out affect price at least as much as do schools.

All you have to do is cherry-pick a few zip codes in DC and Alexandria City, alleged not to have the best schools in the area, such as:

20001 Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow

and you will see that house values have curve shapes that are directly contradictory to your hypothesis.

You also need data well before the peak of the bubble to make the case. Many neighborhoods that had a big crash had a larger %-age uptick pre-bubble than did most of Arlington, so they had further to fall.

Washington DC is a whole other animal. I am referring to fairfax county inside the beltway.

I am sure old town will be brought up but I am not including that either because it is more of a city like environment.