$450K, Single, 31 Where Would You Buy? (real estate, apartment, mortgages)

[JfromReston]

Originally Posted by ACWhite

This area is unusual in that prices stayed relatively flat throughout the 90s, then zoomed up in the early 2000s, then dropped, then have stayed pretty flat a long time again.

That is not what has happened in Reston. I just got an informational sheet from a realtor with data for detached single family homes in 20191 (South Reston) showing that 20191 has reached an all-time high. The information doesn't cover the 90's but clearly disagrees with your statement that "they have stayed pretty flat a long time again".

Here is the data for average sold price from January 1 - July 2 each year.

2004 -- $456,292
2005 -- $647,227
2006 -- $634,060
2011 -- $537,285
2012 -- $616,596
2013 -- $600,619
2014 -- $623,573
2015 -- $685,211

A 27.5% increase from 2011 to 2015 is not what I would call "pretty flat".

[TheWatchmen]

Originally Posted by JfromReston

That is not what has happened in Reston. I just got an informational sheet from a realtor with data for detached single family homes in 20191 (South Reston) showing that 20191 has reached an all-time high. The information doesn't cover the 90's but clearly disagrees with your statement that "they have stayed pretty flat a long time again".

Here is the data for average sold price from January 1 - July 2 each year.

2004 -- $456,292
2005 -- $647,227
2006 -- $634,060
2011 -- $537,285
2012 -- $616,596
2013 -- $600,619
2014 -- $623,573
2015 -- $685,211

A 27.5% increase from 2011 to 2015 is not what I would call "pretty flat".

And you have the silver line to thank for a lot of that increase, particularly the 2014 - 2015 increase.

[FCNova]

There's not many areas that have been flat in the last 4-5 years. Maybe far out areas in Loudoun haven't seen a ton of appreciation because there's been such a huge amount of supply, I don't know. But FFX county prices have risen a lot. We bought in 2011 and have seen about a 20% increase. That's probably on the low side for FFX county too for that period.

[ACWhite]

I think we all understand that areas differ within the greater metro region--and that median values can be misleading because they reflect the mix of properties (eg condo, TH, SFH) as well as value increases. And J, the "average" or mean values, can be even more misleading. But I was speaking generally, and OP is looking at a wide variety of areas.

The Metro extension is a huge factor for Reston, as others said. J, you also need to look at what happened in the other periods I mentioned, eg in the 1990s. And during the 2000s, the further-out areas went up in percentage terms a lot more than did the close in suburbs, and many dropped a lot more during the "burst", so some may also have ascended more since the "burst" than closer in areas.

Even given the hazards of comparing these data, notice that j's 2005 and 2015 numbers are not very different--inflation was greater during that period. They show that one cannot count on slow steady appreciation.

FFX, in general, dropped more than did most parts of Arl and AX city, so they have more room to recover since the burst. And again, look at the 1990s and the general trends discussed. My friends' condo (mentioned earlier) was in FFX, and definitely was caught in the 1990s price stagnation.

[gomason]

My parents home, in South County, has appreciated $40k or 8% in 22 months.

I wouldn't worry too much about properties in Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria. PWC and Loudoun is where home prices really boom and bust.

[RandomNovaGuy]

What happened in 07/08/09/10?

Originally Posted by JfromReston

That is not what has happened in Reston. I just got an informational sheet from a realtor with data for detached single family homes in 20191 (South Reston) showing that 20191 has reached an all-time high. The information doesn't cover the 90's but clearly disagrees with your statement that "they have stayed pretty flat a long time again".

Here is the data for average sold price from January 1 - July 2 each year.

2004 -- $456,292
2005 -- $647,227
2006 -- $634,060
2011 -- $537,285
2012 -- $616,596
2013 -- $600,619
2014 -- $623,573
2015 -- $685,211

A 27.5% increase from 2011 to 2015 is not what I would call "pretty flat".

[ACWhite]

To correct my earlier statement -- I should have explicitly mentioned the recovery as part of the post burst/flat period. For areas that were more "bubbly" (increasing and dropping more) some had more "recovery" than those that didn't increase as much in percentage terms and some went through a recovery at a different time post 2005/6 than others. But even those areas are AFAIK relatively flat in price relative to the peak (and some are still below the peak)--if you bought then you are likely not keeping up with inflation especially if you consider the costs of maintaining and updating during those 10 years.

[Middlin]

I guess I missed the part where he said he was looking to get married. Look, you can make yourself go crazy with all the with if scenarios, but the listing in Vienna has a lot of positives.

Under budget
close to work/Tysons
close to metro
walkable or short trip to shops/entertainment
on the W/O
suburban neighborhood to walk dog
2beds & 2 baths

The Vienna location isn't going to be the hottest nightlife, but trust me on this, a few years from now this will not be at the top of your list. I believe resale value in that area will always be in demand due to it's proximity to all the above.

Even if you get married, have a baby, having the 2/2 doesn't make it impossible to live in for a few years if you want to get really conservative about out growing the place a few years down the road.

[ACWhite]

Middlin, look at his 2nd post in response to some posters' questions.

Gomason, look at the variability in JfromReston's numbers. Even with all the caveats--they show a huge drop when the bubble burst (and I would bet that 2008-2010 showed even lower prices). My friends in McLean and Merrifield also saw big drops, though not as big--but prices in their neighborhoods also went up a lot during the bubble. FFX is definitely not immune from price drops.

[ACWhite]

Originally Posted by HokieFan

OP, just keep in mind that with a condo or townhome, you'll have monthly HOA/COA fees to take into consideration. For instance, I like the third listing in your first post but I see that the condo fee is $437 a month. Personally, that would drastically affect how much mortgage I could afford.

Have you checked out Fairlington? I have a friend that has lived in Fairlington for 20-something years, and she loves it.

4819 30th St S APT B1, Arlington, VA 22206 is For Sale | Zillow

4825 28th St S # A, Arlington, VA 22206 is For Sale | Zillow

3441 S Stafford St APT B1, Arlington, VA 22206 is For Sale | Zillow

Yes, but the maintenance and updating costs of a SFH in that price range would likely be at least that much. And some condo fees cover cable, exercise facilities, and other amenities that SFH prices would not.

To me the biggest risk in a condo is the quality of neighbors. You're dependent on everyone's having similar values with respect to quiet, keeping up the property (eg one time assessments, landscaping), smoking or not, owner-occupied/rental, etc.