Population Trend of Northern Virginia (Arlington, Alexandria: stats, estimates, best)

[CaptainAaamerica]

I read up on some data that made me think of something that was said on this forum that had stuck in my mind because it was surprising. It was said that the region has seen a net domestic migration loss in the past decade or so, - a statement which is very surprising about NoVa (even as an outsider). I read a contradicting article which led me to look up more details on that statement. I though to share it because there is a nuance to that statement which makes it more sensible.

The stated stat of "a net migration loss" appears to be applicable to the State as a whole and not to NoVa. To say that Nova is the opposite is an understatement, - NoVa is booming at an incredible pace, both in population growth and economic growth. The stated stat was simply only true if talking about the State of Virginia as a whole, - including "including more rural areas in the southern and western parts of Virginia dropped more than ten percent."

As a non-Virginian (alien to Virginia or whatever you want to call me) who works in the Tech industry, I think it was normal for me to have had a biased/positive view of NoVa that is not descriptive of the rest of the region (i.e. local population and other industries). Thats why I didn't question the statement when I read it (to be honest I think I may have read it more than once in the posts). But now after a closer look of the stats/studies I see that my perception was indeed correct (i.e. the NoVa region as a whole is indeed booming at an incredible rate, - one of the leaders in the country). Since 2010, Loudoun grew by over 30%, Arlington by over 16%, Alexandria and PWC both by 15% and Fairfax County by almost 6% (it brought the most people compared to the others, but it has the highest population base so percentage is lower).

I dont want to write a long essay but I think the dichotomy between population trends of NoVa Virginia and non-NoVa Virginia is understandable (not suggesting that its how it ought to be or that nothing should be done about it, but more so that its understandable given the economies of the two regions are based on very different industries).

Here is one article: https://www.localdvm.com/news/virgin...sus/1755128709

"The data shows the population of Loudoun County and the surrounding Northern Virginia area jumped 30 percent to more than 400,000 people. However, the remainder of the state, including more rural areas in the southern and western parts of Virginia dropped more than ten percent."

Here is another one: https://wtkr.com/2019/02/01/virginia...-big-declines/

"Seventy of the state’s 133 cities and counties gained population between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2018, according to data released this week ... The population of Loudoun County, in Northern Virginia, jumped 30 percent, to more than 406,000.

But the remaining 63 localities — largely rural areas in the southern and western parts of the state — saw population declines. The population of Buchanan County, in the Appalachian Mountains bordering West Virginia and Kentucky, dropped more than 10 percent, to fewer than 21,600 residents.

Overall, Virginia’s population has grown by 6.5 percent since the 2010 census, passing 8.5 million residents last year, according to the Weldon Cooper Center, which generates the state’s official population estimates.

Even so, the state’s annual population growth this decade is the lowest since the 1920s, the center said. During the past five years, the commonwealth’s population has grown more slowly than the nation as a whole."

[Veritas Vincit]

Without having delved too deeply into the numbers, you're looking at two different things here - domestic net migration and population growth. The latter can be driven by immigration and high birth rates as well. That's how it has been in California, for example, for many years, negative domestic migration made up for by massive foreign immigration.



Now Northern Virginia is a long, long way from Spanish-speaking nations and yet by now there's not a few communities in this area with Hispanic population rates you would have expected to see only in California or New Mexico 15-20 years ago. This is *part* of what has driven the population growth here. I would have also expected to see positive domestic net migration to be honest in an area like this, so maybe that is happening, too, but immigration is a huge factor.

[NOVAmtneer82]

Was the article you saw talking about the DC region as a whole or just Northern Virginia? We usually post high(er) domestic migration numbers when the economy is slow everywhere else but still growing here- the Great Recession was a prime example of that. Things sometimes cool off on the domestic migration front when the economy warms up elsewhere and people are drawn to cheaper COL and less hectic cities. Foreign migration into this area has always been and continues to be really high and then we also have a huge surplus of births over deaths. The above poster is correct- very smiliar to California which was growing very fast in the late 80s and 90s despite having little to no gains from domestic. I don't have a specific breakdown of migration totals for the DC area or Virginia as a whole but from my best guess- in this region there is more outward domestic migration from Maryland and in the rest of Virginia a much of it in the SW and Southside sections of the state. Some people who leave those areas head up here but many more head towards Raleigh or Charlotte which is in many cases closer than here. We're still growing and quite fast at that- I just don't know enough as to where it is all coming from. And it seems like theres going to be a lot more heading our way.