Is it time to buy or where price is heading (Springfield: short sales, real estate)

[thomast5263]

Hi all experts,

We are looking to buy a home in Northern virginia, but it seems that prices are dropping a little bit in Feb 2009,
We need your expertise in the housing market to where home prices are heading or it 's a good time to buy. Thanks

[oneasterisk]

It all depends on your situation. How's your job stability? If you do buy, will you be living in the house for a while? What area are you looking at buying? Some areas have dropped a lot and seem to be leveling off. Others have only started to drop so could be dropping for a while.

On the plus side, rates are pretty dang low and I don't think they can get much lower. If you have good credit and money to put down, banks are lending. I closed on a house 2 weeks ago at 4.75% 30yr fixed @ 3/8 point. Others have received even better terms.

[DC Oldtimer]

I think it's a good time to buy if you find a well-located house you like at a reasonable price and dont get into a bidding war.

Where prices are heading is very neighborhood dependent in NOVA. There was a map in the Washington Post a little while ago that showed price changes by zip code. Some places had actually seen price increases over the past year, while others had actually seen an average drop of 30%.

Of course within a zip code there can be places that are doing well and others that are doing abominably. Check the tax assessment data to see how much prices have changed in the neighborhood over the past year or so. I would be wary of buying any place where prices have fallen > 10% since the peak, as that suggests to me a neighborhood that is in more of a downtrend than others.

[DJRR]

I have been here 30 years and this is the 3rd cycle I have seen. I think it is a good time to buy if you are going to be here for the next 5+ years. If less, then I would probably rent.

I track SFH in my zip 20120 pretty closely and things have bottomed out. Inventory in the price range I watch has fallen from ~ 75 houses to 26 this morning and most of the foreclosures and short sales have turned over. Not too many left.

Will probably stay flat for awhile, but with the low rates and tax credits it is a great time to get into a good neighborhood/school district if you have a longer term view.

Expect another big pop in 7 or 8 years

[VRE332]

Originally Posted by DJRR

I have been here 30 years and this is the 3rd cycle I have seen. I think it is a good time to buy if you are going to be here for the next 5+ years. If less, then I would probably rent.


Expect another big pop in 7 or 8 years

FINALLY someone on this board with common sense, and experience with the area. AMEN

[oneasterisk]

Originally Posted by DJRR

Expect another big pop in 7 or 8 years

I hope you're right. I just bought an investment property and hope to make some money off it during the next "bubble".

[VRE332]

Originally Posted by oneasterisk

I hope you're right. I just bought an investment property and hope to make some money off it during the next "bubble".

As soon as another republican takes over the white house then we will see another bubble.

[spidercharm]

Originally Posted by oneasterisk

I hope you're right. I just bought an investment property and hope to make some money off it during the next "bubble".

I do not believe common sense will let another bubble happen again in next several years. We are in a secular decline in housing market for years to come. I expect sizable decline next couple of years followed by almost flat prices for next few years.

I would stay away from anything that is housing related as far as "investment" goes (specially not in NoVA given where we are in the trend)

[oneasterisk]

When has common sense stopped the masses from doing stupid things? If it was so common sense, then it'd be just called sense - LOL I'm a pretty young guy, but I've learned that lots of things are on cycles but still people get suprised when it happens again.

This investment property is a long term strategy, I'm thinking 5-7 years. Worst comes to worst, I'll keep it till it's paid off. I got it at a great deal and I can pay my mortgage and the investment mortgage with my paycheck without going into the red if I'm unable to rent it. As long as I don't lose my job or reduce my salary, then things should work out...

[PegJames]

Hi there,

It's a wonderful time to buy. My first home in the area was purchased in the Springfield area in 1984. The interest rates then averaged 14%! Today rates are under 5%. "The same house I purchased back in 1984 for $121,000 is now selling for $275,000 in a depressed market! "
The strange thing is the house that I purchased in 1982 the P&I payment was $1433.00, today if I bought it with a fixed rate FHA Loan the P & I portion of the payment at 4.75% interest rate is $1384.32! See for yourself...
Short and long-term interest rates (Interest rates, 1982-) - www.scb.se

Now- the $8000 tax incentive is a nice carrot!

If you ask me now is a great time to buy.However buy smart. Buy something that you can live in Long Term. People have forgotten that purchasing a home to live in, is the goal. Historically real estate here in Northern Virginia has always been a good investment.

It's your home. Not something to flip or live in for a few years. If you can't commit to a long term homeownership then you should RENT>