So Just How Quickly IS NoVA Growing? (Arlington, Reston: rent, condos)

[VRE332]

Originally Posted by Denton56

Which baby boomers would that be? I am a baby boomer, and I moved to a huge ass house. Ditto my friends. Now that many are getting ready to retire, they sell their closer in houses, and move to the beach, the country, or the mountains, buying much bigger houses with much bigger lots, often on the water. You should see the boats, horses, and pools our friends have. They now have the time and the money for their hobbies, so they move to where they can raise horses, or on the water where they can play with their boats and lay in the sun.

It's a total myth that people down size when they retire. Why would they? Retiring professionals, like those who live in Fairfax county, have plenty of money to live as they choose and it's rare that they choose to go backwards to a smaller home. Like everyone else, they want to move up to bigger and better.

Retired professionals from Fairfax are a small percentage of the overall community. In addition, retirees who can afford the horses, boats and above is an even smaller pool. What about the couples who had 2.5 kids that are all out of the house and would like a smaller place (i'm talking about going from 4 bedrooms to 2). I know of 2 couples who are in the process of reducing their home sizes just because they don't have the energy to clean, and their retirement income is fixes, and they cannot walk up the stairs.

[DiderotsGhost]

Originally Posted by ScranBarre

At this rate if NoVA's population increases by roughly 1,250,000 every 30 years, then by 2040 NoVA may be creeping up to the neighborhood of 4,000,000 residents (especially if Culpeper County, Frederick County, Rapahannock County, and the City of Winchester are annexed by then, as I expect them to be!)

Still think we don't need to be concerned about smart growth?

I've always hated the term "smart growth" (as opposed to dumb growth?), but I agree with the basic idea behind it. However, the population of NoVa is not going to increase 1.25 mln every 30 years, I don't believe. The process of suburbanization may very well be grinding to a halt at this point. People have a tendency to believe trends will last forever, but I think re-urbanization will become the new trend and there's some evidence that already suggests it's happening.

Instead of the population increasing at a dramatic rate, I believe cities with sprawled out and unsustainable development patterns will simply see much lower growth than those with more dense, upward development.

[normie]

What I've been observing is that many people who live in the outer ring of suburbs lose their corporate jobs and then open small businesses in their own neighborhood. For example, an accountant laid off from a job in Tysons Corner then opens his own office down the street from where he lives. Many people start businesses from their homes. That's what happened with us--during the last big recession we got tired of the corporate games and started our own publishing company.

Over time we grew but stayed in our neighborhood. Like most people, if I'm going to rent my own office I'll choose a place near my home. IMO, that's why so many office buildings are going up now. The sprawl is filling in and people are opening their own offices. But FWIW, the people I meet at the Chamber of Commerce (aka the people renting these offices) are mostly people who already live here.

It's interesting to watch how sprawl starts off as a housing development but over time fills in with local restaurants, drug stores, hair salons, etc. Over the next decade I think we'll see many of these communities starting to resemble small towns.

[leighland]

Originally Posted by Denton56

Which baby boomers would that be? I am a baby boomer, and I moved to a huge ass house. Ditto my friends. Now that many are getting ready to retire, they sell their closer in houses, and move to the beach, the country, or the mountains, buying much bigger houses with much bigger lots, often on the water. You should see the boats, horses, and pools our friends have. They now have the time and the money for their hobbies, so they move to where they can raise horses, or on the water where they can play with their boats and lay in the sun.

It's a total myth that people down size when they retire. Why would they? Retiring professionals, like those who live in Fairfax county, have plenty of money to live as they choose and it's rare that they choose to go backwards to a smaller home. Like everyone else, they want to move up to bigger and better.

Thats been my experience with older people in all 6 states I have lived in.

[NOVAmtneer82]

Northern Virginia as a whole will continue to grow at a rapid rate however I think the growth will start becoming more concentrated in areas inside the Beltway..or at least close to it. I forsee A LOT of infill development and redevelopment occuring in places like Annandale, Springfield, the Tysons area etc. It would also make sense that if trends continue Arlington and Alexandria will continue to see their growth rates rise as well.

Percentage wise we won't be growing at the same rate because our population is getting so large that it would be difficult to match numbers from the last 20 or so years. In terms of the number of people moving here...it will probably stay the same or maybe increase to higher amounts depending on how much the government expands over the next few years. People may not be moving here to be actors or surfers like normie mentioned, but many certainly come to the DC area to make their mark on the political world.

[Gottasay]

Originally Posted by Denton56

It's a total myth that people down size when they retire. Why would they? Retiring professionals, like those who live in Fairfax county, have plenty of money to live as they choose and it's rare that they choose to go backwards to a smaller home. Like everyone else, they want to move up to bigger and better.

I think you're making quite a sweeping generalization, don't ya thaink? I know of retirees who downsized to much smaller quarters after their kids left the nest. It is common sense.

[Gottasay]

As the boomers age, you will also see a lot of condo complexes going up -- composed of one-level condos. Many choose to stay in the DC area b/c they still have debts, need to work and/or have family and/or an emotional/intellectual connection to the area (go figure!).

You'll also see more more hospitals, pharmacies, libraries, senior centers, community colleges, theatres, and people driving in the passing lane at 25 mph.

[Alicia Bradley]

Originally Posted by Denton56

Which baby boomers would that be? I am a baby boomer, and I moved to a huge ass house. Ditto my friends. Now that many are getting ready to retire, they sell their closer in houses, and move to the beach, the country, or the mountains, buying much bigger houses with much bigger lots, often on the water. You should see the boats, horses, and pools our friends have. They now have the time and the money for their hobbies, so they move to where they can raise horses, or on the water where they can play with their boats and lay in the sun.

It's a total myth that people down size when they retire. Why would they? Retiring professionals, like those who live in Fairfax county, have plenty of money to live as they choose and it's rare that they choose to go backwards to a smaller home. Like everyone else, they want to move up to bigger and better.

My parents retired to Florida to a much smaller home (albeit in a fairly pricey neighborhood) and also enjoy boating and golfing and beaching. Just sayin'.

[athousandlogins]

My in-laws won't downsize (or upsize) because they hate and fear change. But all of their friends have downsized to one-level condos like Gottasay mentioned. This is an upper-class group who could certainly afford to upsize or stay in their homes if they wanted to.

It's actually pretty funny - my MIL usually does everything her friends do, so she's very defensive about being the odd one out this time. If you ask her if she plans to join her friends and downsize soon, she - in all seriousness - tells you that she can't because her husband plays hockey. Because where would he store his hockey sticks in a condo??? Like they don't build two bedroom condos, LOL.

Anyway, they have a split level and I do wonder what will happen when they can't handle the stairs anymore. It's probably more about being practical than being aspirational, or not.

[SteelCityRising]

I just believe people in NoVA need to stop fearing "infill." It's not a profanity! As I said in my Reston Land Use College thread a few weeks ago a lot of the old-timers in Reston are terrified that Reston is going to become "Arlingtonized" due to all of the massive mixed-use projects and high-rises on our not-so-distant horizon (that will probably only grow in quantity when the Metrorail's Silver Line is extended here in several years). I think Reston founder Bob Simon would PROMOTE and ENCOURAGE transit-oriented development in Reston, as he initially wanted to create a community where people could walk to most of their necessities, mingle with their neighbors, etc., etc. The Reston of 2009 isn't that by a long shot, but the Reston of 2040 can be.

I undersand we'll never get people to abandon personal automobiles in favor of mass transit, even with generous subsidies, but overall NoVA really needs to stop orienting 100% of its new development around the automobile. Tyson's Corner is the perfect example of how poor planning a generation ago is now going to cost OUR GENERATION billions of tax dollars to correct to make that part of McLean more pedestrian- and bicyclist-friendly (Google "Transforming Tyson's"). Streets are going to have to be "calmed" and retro-fitted with sidewalks/bike lanes. Pedestrian bridges may have to be constructed over Routes 7 and 123 in strategic locations. Surface parking lots are going to have to be bulldozed and replaced with garages to permit more room for urban green space. I work right in a high-rise right in the heart of Tyson's Corner, and I have no idea how I could safely cross Route 7 to get to Wendy's.

Like it or not, folks, Fairfax County is going to have to start building UP instead of just out because we're running out of room. You can either put up resistance as some of the folks in Reston are doing, or you can embrace this change as being necessary. You can't just have people continuing to sprawl into Culpeper, Winchester, Southern Pennsylvania, Frederick, Charles Town, etc. and tell them to commute 3 hours each day. For God's sake I just received an advertisement in the mail today for Snowden Bridge, a planned community in Winchester, that is advertising its "hassle-free commute to D.C."