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Nope, I love non white people. I was just asking more informed members of this board if they thought CP was at risk of white flight, just as Merrillville and Gary have. I think a more diverse Crown Point is a better Crown Point, but will the town be able to enjoy the same perception it maintains now. That is the big question it faces in the future. Crown Point is growing very fast, thus I conclude it could change racially fairly fast if this ever would start. Nothing bad about diversity. More so bad things happen when a concentration of poverty is created, this being regardless of race. Most people on this board would not want to live around poor whites in Black Oak, nor around poor blacks and Hispanics in Gary or EC.
And BTW, Highland is already seeing housing turnover with more and more Hispanics moving in from the north. Is this bad? No, it is adding diversity to the town and not adding crime or problems to the community at the moment.
Back to the original topic, if high speed rail is added to NWI, more and more Illinois residents would definitely at least CONSIDER moving to NWI, although NWI does lack other amentities such as shopping that some suburbs in Illinois have.
Doubt it... 1st it's going to be 10 years before the first train departs. 2nd again the only people leaving are the people that are moving from comparable valued homes. 3rd the train will take the same if not longer time than their current train system. 4th South Shore is fine but I'd prefer the Metra, runs more frequently and has more established stops already.
Again, there will be some people that move here but more people will probably leave Lake county for Porter than will come in. The South Shore extension will serve Munster and parts of St. John township. East of 41 and south of 30 you're probably still better off going to East Chicago.
The vast majority of people that live in NWI work in NWI.
Where did I say Minooka was more expensive or more desirable than Munster? Please point me to which post where this was stated. I said median home prices are comparable - is this factually incorrect? I even said that I believe Munster has more to offer than Minooka so it is very surprising that median home values are comparable.
I am sorry, I own you an apology for misunderstanding you. However, you said you were "alarmed" that the median prices were similar and then seemed to insinuate that there was something wrong with NWI as Minooka is located in the middle of cornfields 50 miles from the city.
Please understand you can't just compare median home values to derive any concrete conclusions regarding home values, demand or pricing in real estate. If you look at the details of the data in Minooka you will clearly see that the homes are on average much newer, larger and sit on larger lots. Given that Minooka is such as small place to begin with even nominal population growth can make it look like the market is hot and demand is strong when in reality demand overall is weak relative to most areas in the Chicago region.
For example if you have a town of 100 people and it grows by 50 people and just focus on the annual growth rate you will conclude that the market is hot. Not really, 150 people is nothing.
Similarly if you have 3 homes that were built in the 1980's and add another 5 new construction homes, it will make the median home value go off the chart. It does not mean that the price of the home built in 1980 rose considerably.
You have to look at median home values and population growth rates in context. For an nice infill area, no population growth isn't a bad thing. It just means that the area is already built-out. If you see teardowns, than that is a sign of desirability. You have that in Hinsdale and to a much lesser degree we are seeing that in Munster.
But that's my whole point. The tax situation has greatly favored NWI for a long time now (this isn't something new) and still NWI home values are greatly depressed relatuve to comparable Chicagoland suburbs on the IL side.
Yes, taxes will increase but neither you nor I know to what extent or in what form. To say otherwise would certainly be one way of spreading misinformation as it appears a lot of IL bashers enjoy doing.
We agree on this - nobody knows how much taxes will increase. We just know it will happen and IL is in the worse financial situation of any state (excluding the territory of PR). That is the added risk I see resulting in potential upside in NWI in the FUTURE. I don't think the taxes are terribly out of whack yet in IL (although there are some communities which have certainly reached the tipping point).
I think most homebuyers turn a blind eye to the IL financial situation and won't really think about the tax increase until they open the mailbox and it is sitting there. Most people on the C-D forum do not fit this description and I certainly would not consider you one of them. You are thoughtful on what is driving trends and interested in this subject matter. You also did were small and bought a more modest home in one of the best burbs of IL. If I stayed in IL, I'd be in one of those western burbs with you.
I'm really not an IL basher. I want IL to succeed. I have so many great memories living in downtown Chicago and my family resides in IL. I just have little faith in the established politicians who are running IL and the largest city in the state (Chicago). I'm waiting on the sidelines and maintaining flexibility in financial decisions by choosing NWI.
I grew up around people making 30k per year who would make fun of kids who could not afford new clothes or shoes. I also knew people who made millions who were very down to earth. Our youth league soccer ref growing up is an attorney who is worth over 200mm. Very nice man who drives newer non-luxury cars.
Many are insecure and just want to make themselves feel better by comparing themselves to someone less fortunate.
Many in urban areas live in micro bubbles, surrounded by people like themselves. I love Hinsdale but apart from social projects and volunteerism most of its residents know very little about how the other half lives.
Same is true of people living in Munster in 4000 sq ft 500k houses on golf courses, even though poverty is only a short drive away (for Hinsdale too).
We agree on this - nobody knows how much taxes will increase. We just know it will happen and IL is in the worse financial situation of any state (excluding the territory of PR). That is the added risk I see resulting in potential upside in NWI in the FUTURE. I don't think the taxes are terribly out of whack yet in IL (although there are some communities which have certainly reached the tipping point).
I think most homebuyers turn a blind eye to the IL financial situation and won't really think about the tax increase until they open the mailbox and it is sitting there. Most people on the C-D forum do not fit this description and I certainly would not consider you one of them. You are thoughtful on what is driving trends and interested in this subject matter. You also did were small and bought a more modest home in one of the best burbs of IL. If I stayed in IL, I'd be in one of those western burbs with you.
I'm really not an IL basher. I want IL to succeed. I have so many great memories living in downtown Chicago and my family resides in IL. I just have little faith in the established politicians who are running IL and the largest city in the state (Chicago). I'm waiting on the sidelines and maintaining flexibility in financial decisions by choosing NWI.
Fair enough and I appreciate your input. I wasn't being sarcastic when I said I wouldn't even know where to find much of the detailed data you inquired about (maybe I was being a bit lazy though). I may have been irritated by a few posters on this forum and resulted in posts that came off as sounding sarcastic or annoying. I truly was hoping to understand the NWI situation better because on paper it seems like it could be a great solution for some but looking at some of the recent price performance (year over year) of the more desirable towns (Munster, Crown Point, Saint John) has to be a bit concerning.
I never said Hinsdale COL was about the same as Munster for a comparable home. I said that Hinsdale is "affordable" to middle-upper class families if they are willing to compromise on home size and age. I admitted I was wrong on the comp between Downers Grove and Munster. You can get more house for your money in Munster clearly, as others have shown. I acknowledged all this but it led me to my next question on why Munster is so affordable relative to similar IL suburbs. No one has really been able to pinpoint the reason why. Despite its reasonable proximity to downtown Chicago I think it still comes down to location. Living in NWI really limits employment options. There is far greater flexibility when residing in the western suburbs for example (unless you move out to the far west suburbs which understandably coincides with a significant discount in home prices).
Quote:
Originally Posted by valpofan11
So does that mean a lot of the vinyl villages built in Crown Point, which have attracted people from all over NWI as well as the south/southwest suburbs will experience white flight? North Crown Point (north of 101st) has already experienced this to some degree. Part of it also has to do with the housing turnover as older non-Hispanic whites die off, and they're replaced by non whites.
Quote:
Originally Posted by svillechris
There is a lot of concern from Crown Point residents that it's just a matter of time until less desirable people move in. I think the town is really doing a great job to prevent that and top flight schools will continue to be the best way to avoid that scenario from happening. CP gets an A+ in that regard. However, since there are a lot of older parts of the town, with older more run down houses (clearly not all or most), there is more reason to be concerned in my opinion compared to a similarly high-growth town like St. John where there's a lower percentage of older, more modest homes that may attracts riff-raff. No I don't have any data to back it up, but I think it is fair to say that Crown Point doesn't have the same percentage of residents working in Illinois which typically will lead to higher wages, when compared to a Munster or Tri-town area. I'm not trying to say I think Crown Point will be heading south as a town anytime soon, and I think they're doing everything within reason to keep the town's arrow pointed up. However, I do understand some of the concern that residents do have longer term.
Also, Crown Point north of 101st might as well be a different universe considering how that area is zoned to Merrillville schools.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cobra86
? Crown Point has room to grow before this should be considered. Are you afraid of non-white people? Seems to be a lot of racial undertones that go on here. If any towns would be seeing this as a current problem it would be Highland or Griffith where there is more of an older population. While Ross township portion of CP does create confusion for those that buy into it thinking they're getting CP schools it is still pretty much a seemless transition into the area directly south of it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by svillechris
It's not a secret that there's a large portion of Crown Point residents that don't want minorities to move into Crown Point. Not that that view isn't found elsewhere in NWI, America, or the world, but this is no secret as it pertains to CP. Most CP residents have "seen what's happened to Gary, then Merrillville", and are worried it'll happen to Crown Point in due time as well. There are stark differences between CP and those other two towns, so as I mentioned before I don't think it'll happen any time soon or at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cobra86
Well with that mentality, they should probably pull out the stakes and move to Jasper/Newton county. In the meantime, I don't think you're going to see a repeat of what happened in Gary since the 50's. That town is/was a one trick pony and now it's pretty much a dead horse. As I said I would be more concerned with that if I lived in Highland or Griffith, and even then I would only be concerned once my neighborhood became a certain level of rentals compared to owner occupied.
Quote:
Originally Posted by valpofan11
Nope, I love non white people. I was just asking more informed members of this board if they thought CP was at risk of white flight, just as Merrillville and Gary have. I think a more diverse Crown Point is a better Crown Point, but will the town be able to enjoy the same perception it maintains now. That is the big question it faces in the future. Crown Point is growing very fast, thus I conclude it could change racially fairly fast if this ever would start. Nothing bad about diversity. More so bad things happen when a concentration of poverty is created, this being regardless of race. Most people on this board would not want to live around poor whites in Black Oak, nor around poor blacks and Hispanics in Gary or EC.
And BTW, Highland is already seeing housing turnover with more and more Hispanics moving in from the north. Is this bad? No, it is adding diversity to the town and not adding crime or problems to the community at the moment.
Back to the original topic, if high speed rail is added to NWI, more and more Illinois residents would definitely at least CONSIDER moving to NWI, although NWI does lack other amentities such as shopping that some suburbs in Illinois have.
Regarding Crown Point, svillechris is correct in the mentality of many residents in the area based upon what they have seen with Gary and Merrillville. Although I cannot anticipate any major change like what happened in Gary occurring in CP, the fact is that CP has become very diverse with a huge growth in the Black population in the ross township area and there will be some growth in the center township area as well. It appears to be mostly middle class folks. The question is will CP be able to adjust overall? While the area north of 101st is usually written off by many folks, it's still part of CP. You can also see the differences in White Hawk Country Club. The northern half is in Ross Township and I actually think that is the area with nicer homes. But the prices premiums are on the southern end of that subdivision. The lots in the northern half are in the $40K range which is less than smaller lots in less upscale subdivisions in Center Township.
As far as Highland and Griffith, these areas have become a little more diverse but not nearly as much as most people would have thought given their geographic location in the metro area and relative inexpensiveness. However, there are a few reasons for this. Many minorities in this area whom are upwardly mobile associate old post-war and tract housing (no matter where it is) as not being reflective of their status. In addition, there often is a concern of moving into an older and established neighborhood as opposed to a newer neighborhood where the likelihood of acceptance would be greater. They see new housing, tract or more custom McMansions as more reflective; however, price is still a factor. So when it comes down to it, many folks are turned off at the idea of paying $200,000 for an old small home in Highland or Griffith when they could pay the same or slightly more for a home in Merrillville or CP and still have acceptable schools. Now there are exceptions as part of the area of north CP has older homes but this area is also still close to Merrillville and Gary where many Black families have ties to anyway and have been rooted here for generations. But there are also many Black families further out in much newer developments in Winfield and these are not necessarily all very cheap either (some are). The other thing is that while the Hispanic populations in NWI seems to be pretty well integrated in various neighborhoods, this is not the same for the Black population. In Griffith, it seems like 90% of the Black population lives in the Mansards. Look at the census map and this can be clearly seen. Also compare the demographics between a school like Ready Elementary School and Beiriger Elementary School. Both in the same Griffith school district; very different demographics (and this is a very small school district both in population and physical size).
Everywhere in NWI will get more diverse; however, historical and current trends will show that most of the growth in non-White population will occur in the southeastern part of the county. Merrillville was beginning to get more diverse but due to White Flight, it changed primarily from just predominantly White to predominantly Black...most of those White residents (whom were originally from Gary) are now in CP or their families are.
Overall, I do agree with Humbolt that in some areas, lower cost housing can be ripe for White Flight; however, in NWI, I would say that lower cost NEW housing would trigger that more. CP will probably not see the flight all together that Merrillville saw, but there will be some (and yes, may folks are and have already pulled up their stakes and going to Lowell and Jasper County)...Lowell is also very cheap so distance really would be the only deterrent for more folks moving there.
Regarding Crown Point, svillechris is correct in the mentality of many residents in the area based upon what they have seen with Gary and Merrillville. Although I cannot anticipate any major change like what happened in Gary occurring in CP, the fact is that CP has become very diverse with a huge growth in the Black population in the ross township area and there will be some growth in the center township area as well. It appears to be mostly middle class folks. The question is will CP be able to adjust overall? While the area north of 101st is usually written off by many folks, it's still part of CP. You can also see the differences in White Hawk Country Club. The northern half is in Ross Township and I actually think that is the area with nicer homes. But the prices premiums are on the southern end of that subdivision. The lots in the northern half are in the $40K range which is less than smaller lots in less upscale subdivisions in Center Township.
As far as Highland and Griffith, these areas have become a little more diverse but not nearly as much as most people would have thought given their geographic location in the metro area and relative inexpensiveness. However, there are a few reasons for this. Many minorities in this area whom are upwardly mobile associate old post-war and tract housing (no matter where it is) as not being reflective of their status. In addition, there often is a concern of moving into an older and established neighborhood as opposed to a newer neighborhood where the likelihood of acceptance would be greater. They see new housing, tract or more custom McMansions as more reflective; however, price is still a factor. So when it comes down to it, many folks are turned off at the idea of paying $200,000 for an old small home in Highland or Griffith when they could pay the same or slightly more for a home in Merrillville or CP and still have acceptable schools. Now there are exceptions as part of the area of north CP has older homes but this area is also still close to Merrillville and Gary where many Black families have ties to anyway and have been rooted here for generations. But there are also many Black families further out in much newer developments in Winfield and these are not necessarily all very cheap either (some are). The other thing is that while the Hispanic populations in NWI seems to be pretty well integrated in various neighborhoods, this is not the same for the Black population. In Griffith, it seems like 90% of the Black population lives in the Mansards. Look at the census map and this can be clearly seen. Also compare the demographics between a school like Ready Elementary School and Beiriger Elementary School. Both in the same Griffith school district; very different demographics (and this is a very small school district both in population and physical size).
Everywhere in NWI will get more diverse; however, historical and current trends will show that most of the growth in non-White population will occur in the southeastern part of the county. Merrillville was beginning to get more diverse but due to White Flight, it changed primarily from just predominantly White to predominantly Black...most of those White residents (whom were originally from Gary) are now in CP or their families are.
Overall, I do agree with Humbolt that in some areas, lower cost housing can be ripe for White Flight; however, in NWI, I would say that lower cost NEW housing would trigger that more. CP will probably not see the flight all together that Merrillville saw, but there will be some (and yes, may folks are and have already pulled up their stakes and going to Lowell and Jasper County)...Lowell is also very cheap so distance really would be the only deterrent for more folks moving there.
Having grown up in SW Michigan, this whole concept of "white flight" is kind of foreign for me. I understand that back in the 1950's and 1960's in the Chicago region if a black family moved into a white block, all the white people started freaking out and moved further out into the burbs. This was "white flight".
Haven't most people in this country come a long way in the last 60 years in terms of realizing one's skin color a person does not make? When you say "white flight" now, is it the same as it was in the 1960's?
I ask b/c in my neighborhood we have all sorts of different races and nationalities but yes, still primarily white. If a black/AA family moved across the street from us after the elderly lady who lives there now dies or moves to a home, I wouldn't freak out. Now, if a bunch of gang bangers moved in and it created a violent atmosphere then, yes, I'm out. When you are talking about "white flight" is it still based on color alone or is it based on lifestyle/crime issues? Not to sound Pollyannaish but are there really still a good chunk of people in certain areas of NWI that will just jump ship based on the color of their neighbors skin? Should we call this "Crime Flight" or is it still really the same old "White Flight" there was 60 years ago?
Nope, I love non white people. I was just asking more informed members of this board if they thought CP was at risk of white flight, just as Merrillville and Gary have. I think a more diverse Crown Point is a better Crown Point, but will the town be able to enjoy the same perception it maintains now. That is the big question it faces in the future. Crown Point is growing very fast, thus I conclude it could change racially fairly fast if this ever would start. Nothing bad about diversity. More so bad things happen when a concentration of poverty is created, this being regardless of race. Most people on this board would not want to live around poor whites in Black Oak, nor around poor blacks and Hispanics in Gary or EC.
And BTW, Highland is already seeing housing turnover with more and more Hispanics moving in from the north. Is this bad? No, it is adding diversity to the town and not adding crime or problems to the community at the moment.
Back to the original topic, if high speed rail is added to NWI, more and more Illinois residents would definitely at least CONSIDER moving to NWI, although NWI does lack other amentities such as shopping that some suburbs in Illinois have.
As someone who lived in IL and worked downtown less than 2 years ago, the answer is YES, all day long.
I feel like every other person I meet takes this trip and I am sure other's would be more apt to move to NWI if the rail connection was stronger than it currently is.
All I know is they had better not bring their voting habits over here like the Californians have to Nevada and Colorado, or New Yorkers and New Jerseyans have to Florida.
Having grown up in SW Michigan, this whole concept of "white flight" is kind of foreign for me. I understand that back in the 1950's and 1960's in the Chicago region if a black family moved into a white block, all the white people started freaking out and moved further out into the burbs. This was "white flight".
Haven't most people in this country come a long way in the last 60 years in terms of realizing one's skin color a person does not make? When you say "white flight" now, is it the same as it was in the 1960's?
I ask b/c in my neighborhood we have all sorts of different races and nationalities but yes, still primarily white. If a black/AA family moved across the street from us after the elderly lady who lives there now dies or moves to a home, I wouldn't freak out. Now, if a bunch of gang bangers moved in and it created a violent atmosphere then, yes, I'm out. When you are talking about "white flight" is it still based on color alone or is it based on lifestyle/crime issues? Not to sound Pollyannaish but are there really still a good chunk of people in certain areas of NWI that will just jump ship based on the color of their neighbors skin? Should we call this "Crime Flight" or is it still really the same old "White Flight" there was 60 years ago?
To answer your question, yes most people have, but a significant number of people have not. And White Flight (as far as how it was in the 50s and 60s) not quite.
Back in the 50 and 60s, the vast majority of White Flight was from cities to suburbs and due to redlining, minorities (even if they had the money or creditworthiness) would find it impossible to move. In addition, it was considered dangerous for many to move to certain suburbs that were considered sundown towns as well. As a result, minorities of higher incomes lived in the same neighborhoods as minorities of lower income. After redlining was made illegal, minorities started to branch out further...inner ring suburbs that were wealthy were stable. Less wealthy ones saw White flight to further out suburbs. One example of this is River Forest IL and Maywood, IL. River Forest is an upper middle class/upper class area(just west of Oak Park) and Maywood is just west of River Forest...Maywood historically was more blue collar White ethnics (which was a population that in the Chicago area was the most likely to flee). You look today and River Forest and Maywood are night and day regarding demographics and other socioeconomic factors.
In NWI, places like Munster, Highland, Dyer, and Schererville grew a lot from White Flight from suburbs like Dolton, Calumet City, South Holland, Lynwood, part of Lansing as well as growth from some long-time region residents in Hammond and EC whom were looking for newer housing options and less crowded areas. There was also some flight from Chicago Heights, but not as much then as there was in more recent years. Merrillville, IN was created in 1971 through a law that made an exception to a buffer law stating that there must be a 3-mile buffer between a class 1 city and another municipality (something along those lines)...once this law passed, Merrillville BOOMED in population which was nearly 100% White Flighters and this was right after the election of Gary's first Black mayor, Richard Hatcher. Some of the flight did go to Schererville, Griffith, Hobart, and Crown Point, (and even Porter county) but most went to Merrillville because a lot of new housing was able to be developed. Interestingly enough, Hobart never saw much growth due to an issue with their ability to expand sewer service; many folks think that in the long-run, this has actually made Hobart more desirable than it would have been if the area bordering Gary and Merrillville were more populated (there is a forest area that serves as a buffer).
As far as these days, most of the growth that Munster and the ti-town area has seen has not been as much White Flight as it has been a desire for a lifestyle upgrade overall for many folks or for some IL folks, cost savings while maintaining their lifestyle. However, it is knows that places like Dyer, St. John, and Cedar Lake have seen growth from some white flight from places in IL like Chicago Heights, Crete, Lansing, Sauk Village and Crown Point has seen growth from those same areas as well as a major population shift from Merrillville. In NWI, some areas that have seen an increase in minority population is not necessarily due to Whites fleeing but mostly due then Whites whom die off not being replaced by younger and larger White families.
Crown Point (next to Merrillville) has the highest Black population of any suburb in NWI but this is concentrated in the northern part of the city that is zoned to Merrillville. To be honest, the reason that I focus on Black as opposed to all minorities is because that is primarily the population that White Flight is fleeing from. Hispanic/Latinos are growing in population everywhere and that group in this area is diversifying quickly and now reaching all income and educational levels. Somewhat the same for the Asian population although they tend to have higher education, higher incomes, and in NWI are concentrated more in the Munster area. But the Black population in NWI is mostly lower to lower middle income and concentrated in more urban centers such as Gary, EC, and part of north Hammond. The most suburbanization of the Black population in NWI is in Merrillville and north CP and this is why many folks in CP are concerned that White Flight would happen again.
The questions that people here seem to struggle with is "Does property value go down because of the fact that the city is getting less White OR does it go down because of actual issues occurring related to the growth in non-White residents OR does property value go down because of people playing into fears and causing a scare?
Many folks cannot agree on the answer but most folks tend to play into the fear because "it happened before" and the saying about history tends to repeat itself...I will say that in general in NWI, while Route 30 now serves somewhat as the racial dividing line north south (with the exception of Merrillville of course), it seems like Burr St. serves as the east-west diving line between areas most susceptible to flight (east of Burr) and areas less susceptible to flight (west of Burr)..of course there are some exceptions to this.
In my opinion: Places like Munster have a difficult geographic location as while it is close to the city and its amenities, it is also closer to some not-so-nice areas; however, if that town were to have started to have gone seriously downhill, I feel that it should have occurred at least 20 years ago...but it hasn't...and many folks (sadly) almost seem to wish it would go downhill so that they could say "I knew it would happen to them snotty Munster folks some day!"...and many of those folks are those whom may have left that area to places further south and east (read: Crown Point) because they thought they were ahead of the game.
Well one thing that doesn't make sense to me is this...if I were White and I REALLY did not want to live near any Black folks (no matter their income, education, etc) one of the last places I would move to would be Crown Point...it is literally in the growth path of where Black families are moving...in this day and age, most of America is diversifying but I cannot for the life of me understand why folks who wish to reduce the likelihood of Blacks living by them would move to CP??? Really most places in the Region would not be a "safe bet" if that was someones line of thinking, but there are literally so many folks out there that honestly think that Crown Point is "safe" from Black folks moving in and I just laugh at them to be honest. Boone Grove, Hebron, Kouts, Knox, maybe even Demotte would be much better options lol...honestly, even Saint John would be a better option than CP because it is at least pricier than Crown Point...but again, that is the mentality of a lot of folks here.
The flight on the IL side can be seen when you see the divide between the overwhelmingly White southwest suburbs (west of I-57) and the overwhelmingly Black south suburbs (east of I-57)...the suburbs east of 57 went through White Flight but also grew from Black Flight from the south side. suburbs west of 57 grew from White flight. Most other suburbs west, northwest, and north of the city did grow from some flight in the 50s-70s but many of those areas are so pricey that most folks but especially many minorities are priced out anyway, so any continued flight is not much of a concern as proximity to minority groups is much further than in the southern region of Chicago area. Hope this explanation offers some background/education into White flight in the Chicago area.
Personally, I am a big advocate of people moving wherever the hell they want. If that means a Black family wants to move to Schneider, IN or a White family wants to move to Midtown in Gary, IN, then so be it! But not everyone is comfortable everywhere and that is okay as long as the rights of people to move where they want and can afford are not infringed upon.
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Using Median Home Values In a Vacuum
