Illinois To NWI Migration (Munster, St. John: lease, loans, top schools)

[jvr789]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

The funniest (saddest) part about McDonaldIndy's posts is the fact that affluent Chicagoland suburbs are generally performing better over the past year than those found in NWI and Indy. Seriously, check these out. Flat or even negative appreciation in some cases for some of the most desirable suburbs in Indiana over the past year. How is that possible if IL residents are flocking to Indiana in droves?

[DEFAULT_PAGE_SUBTITLE] | Zillow

Carmel IN Home Prices & Home Values | Zillow

Munster IN Home Prices & Home Values | Zillow

[DEFAULT_PAGE_SUBTITLE] | Zillow

Crown Point IN Home Prices & Home Values | Zillow

Hidden Valley IN Home Prices & Home Values | Zillow

Fishers IN Home Prices & Home Values | Zillow

Zillow trends aren't actually based on actual sales data or paired sales data analysis which is actually probably the best way to construe value trends. They are based on Zillow estimates. So while I do think Zillow can provide some insight, it can't be relied upon in a vacuum. For example, you and I had a discussion about Minooka IL a few weeks back. By looking at the Zillow data only, someone may conclude that the market is hot and there is strong demand there, but in reality if you look at the overall size of the market it is just a tiny exurb of Chicago where there is really overall little demand. Relying on the Zillow data in that case will result in the wrong conclusion.


The Greater NWI Association of Realtors has YTD sales up 13.4% and median sales price up 7.3% in NWI. It will be interesting to see what happens in the future b/c again, IL is by in large kicking the can now. I don't think we will know the true impact on home values and migration trends in IL until the IL gov actually addresses the financial situation and balances the budget.


http://www.gniar.com/images/PDF/Mark...ortMay2016.pdf

[My Kind Of Town]

Originally Posted by jvr789

Zillow trends aren't actually based on actual sales data or paired sales data analysis which is actually probably the best way to construe value trends. They are based on Zillow estimates. So while I do think Zillow can provide some insight, it can't be relied upon in a vacuum. For example, you and I had a discussion about Minooka IL a few weeks back. By looking at the Zillow data only, someone may conclude that the market is hot and there is strong demand there, but in reality if you look at the overall size of the market it is just a tiny exurb of Chicago where there is really overall little demand. Relying on the Zillow data in that case will result in the wrong conclusion.


The Greater NWI Association of Realtors has YTD sales up 13.4% and median sales price up 7.3% in NWI. It will be interesting to see what happens in the future b/c again, IL is by in large kicking the can now. I don't think we will know the true impact on home values and migration trends in IL until the IL gov actually addresses the financial situation and balances the budget.


http://www.gniar.com/images/PDF/Mark...ortMay2016.pdf

I was responding to his statement that all of Illinois, which includes the affluent Chicagoland suburbs, will end up on the same path of total destruction as South Holland due to excessive tax liabilities. That has not been reflected in the performance of the residential real estate market within affluent suburbs of Chicagoland when compared to affluent suburbs in NWI and Indy over the past year (since he has also stated that folks are flocking to Indy from Chicagoland - which should result in big price increases in the Indy residential RE market wouldn't you think?). In case you missed it, here is what he said:

"Not surprisingly the ex-wife can't sell the home and is constantly trying to appeal the property taxes (Madigans law firm makes a lot of money doing those appeals)
That is preview of what is coming to all of Illinois. Some areas will be hit sooner and some areas will be hit later. Regardless mass amounts of people that don't get out of the state will be stuck with worthless homes and $30,000+ yearly property tax bills"

I have stated this before, but many are assuming the main source of increased revenue in Illinois will come from residential property tax increases. How does anyone know at this point in time where the revenue will come from? Hell, Bruce Rauner himself doesn't know so how would anyone else? To definitively state otherwise is dishonest and misleading. Even if this is the route chosen (i.e. increased residential property taxes as a result of decreased state funding to schools for example), it will have minimal impact on the affluent Chicagoland suburbs because they already receive very little funding from the state. For example, public schools in Hinsdale on average receive less than 5% from the state. More than 75% of my property taxes fund the Hinsdale school system. Even if that less than 5% state funding goes away, it will have very little impact on my overall property tax burden.

Now I won't argue against the idea that the growing divide between the affluent suburbs and poor suburbs will increase further but to say that all of Illinois will end up on the same path of South Holland is beyond comical.

[damba]

Originally Posted by My Kind Of Town

Now I won't argue against the idea that the growing divide between the affluent suburbs and poor suburbs will increase further but to say that all of Illinois will end up on the same path of South Holland is beyond comical.

Agreed. Mr. McI-LOVE-MY-AREA-BECAUSE-IT-HAS-LOW-TAXES cracks me up sometimes.

[damba]

Sorry. Not gonna happen in my part of IL, amigo.


Enjoy your twenty mile drives to the grocery store in your low-tax bedroom community(!)

Originally Posted by McdonaldIndy

Oh the soaring taxes can't force you into poverty and homelessness soon enough.
Pass the popcorn please and find a time machine that can go 10 years into the future

[jvr789]

Originally Posted by damba

Sorry. Not gonna happen in my part of IL, amigo.


Enjoy your twenty mile drives to the grocery store in your low-tax bedroom community(!)

Sort of confused by the bolded. I live in NWI and it takes me like 3 minutes to drive to Whole Foods?


I get what you are saying though in general and I agree that some parts of IL are going to be better positioned to weather the IL financial mess that is coming. I don't think any area will be completely immune but I would venture to guess that really highly sought after areas will continue to be highly sought after and that the high-upper income households that live there can totally deal with increasing taxes. So maybe these households will have to cut back on the ski trips to Aspen or may have to pick a lower Mercedes series, but I don't think they will end up in financial ruin. Or maybe they will have to sell at a loss but they will likely be able to absorb it. It's going to be much harder for those households not so fortunate to have lots of disposable income...that is why I say if you stay in IL, just don't overextend whatever you do.

[nanannie]

Originally Posted by McdonaldIndy

This attitude/response right there explains very well why Illinois is looked down upon heavily across America. It is one of if not the least liked state in America and the American people don't feel sorry for the pain and suffering going on in Illinois. Especially since its self-inflicted.
So sit back and find out the hard way

Wowza. Probably one of the most irrationally ignorant generalizations I have read during my many years on CD.Unless you are in middle school. Then I understand and apologize

[Serious Conversation]

Originally Posted by jvr789

Sort of confused by the bolded. I live in NWI and it takes me like 3 minutes to drive to Whole Foods?


I get what you are saying though in general and I agree that some parts of IL are going to be better positioned to weather the IL financial mess that is coming. I don't think any area will be completely immune but I would venture to guess that really highly sought after areas will continue to be highly sought after and that the high-upper income households that live there can totally deal with increasing taxes. So maybe these households will have to cut back on the ski trips to Aspen or may have to pick a lower Mercedes series, but I don't think they will end up in financial ruin. Or maybe they will have to sell at a loss but they will likely be able to absorb it. It's going to be much harder for those households not so fortunate to have lots of disposable income...that is why I say if you stay in IL, just don't overextend whatever you do.

That was kind of my point all along. If you are among the Chicago elite, you are so wealthy the tax increases are unlikely to impact your lifestyle.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by McdonaldIndy

This attitude/response right there explains very well why Illinois is looked down upon heavily across America. It is one of if not the least liked state in America and the American people don't feel sorry for the pain and suffering going on in Illinois. Especially since its self-inflicted.
So sit back and find out the hard way

I get you live in a bubble, trapped in the bedroom your parents have gifted you in their home in Carmel, IN, but I think you need to take a break from CD and explore the world outside of Indianapolis. Most Americans don't concern themselves with places they don't live. Average people probably don't have much of an opinion of Illinois. If you asked them what they do think of Illinois most would say something about Chicago, winter, and corn.

[Serious Conversation]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

I get you live in a bubble, trapped in the bedroom your parents have gifted you in their home in Carmel, IN, but I think you need to take a break from CD and explore the world outside of Indianapolis. Most Americans don't concern themselves with places they don't live. Average people probably don't have much of an opinion of Illinois. If you asked them what they do think of Illinois most would say something about Chicago, winter, and corn.

True, but IL has become the butt of jokes in conservative media nationwide. Right or wrong, it is well known in the conservative world as an example of what not to do.

[Humboldt1]

I have foreigners literally everyday tell me how they would love to visit Chicago but are concerned about the crime. I tell them it is overblown and that they will be fine so long as they avoid the south and west sides.

It would be like someone in Indy thinking that all of Indy is crap because of crime on east and west sides.

Chicago is well known by conservative media for gun crimes and failed gun laws. Much of this attention is due to Obama starting here as community organizer.