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I missed selling at the last peak, '05-'06? It's value is still considerably lower than that time frame, but I may be able to put it to better use over here. Our (Portland's) rental market is nearly as tight as yours and units much cheaper. (as you know)
To the OP, others have recommended managing the unit yourself from the mainland, I disagree. It may be because I have the best property manager on the planet or that I worry too much, but I could never have kept this property rented for ten years with not more than two or three days vacancy between tenants. He has all the local contacts such as cleaners, carpet, tile, appliance repair people etc. Stuff comes up often and it's hard enough getting people to show up when they say they will when you're on island, I can't imagine trying to do it from thousands of miles away.
I missed selling at the last peak, '05-'06? It's value is still considerably lower than that time frame, but I may be able to put it to better use over here. Our (Portland's) rental market is nearly as tight as yours and units much cheaper. (as you know)
To the OP, others have recommended managing the unit yourself from the mainland, I disagree. It may be because I have the best property manager on the planet or that I worry too much, but I could never have kept this property rented for ten years with not more than two or three days vacancy between tenants. He has all the local contacts such as cleaners, carpet, tile, appliance repair people etc. Stuff comes up often and it's hard enough getting people to show up when they say they will when you're on island, I can't imagine trying to do it from thousands of miles away.
Are you saying your Honolulu property is still worth less than it's 05,06 value? I'm up over 60% on my 2008 purchase and did not get it at a discount even tho the market was sketchy.
I have long distance managed since 1982 without any problems other than the first 6 months that I used a property manager that charged for everything and did nothing. The key is having a high demand property. Almost 40 years and not one day of unplanned vacancy. No family and friends here, just ask the resident manager if there are any long term owners/tenants and introduce yourself and see if they'll handle keys etc. for say $40 a month and a set price for showings.
Millani is the largest planned development on the islands and about the farthest away from the beach. Just as soon stay in CA.
Are you saying your Honolulu property is still worth less than it's 05,06 value? I'm up over 60% on my 2008 purchase and did not get it at a discount even tho the market was sketchy.
I have long distance managed since 1982 without any problems other than the first 6 months that I used a property manager that charged for everything and did nothing. The key is having a high demand property. Almost 40 years and not one day of unplanned vacancy. No family and friends here, just ask the resident manager if there are any long term owners/tenants and introduce yourself and see if they'll handle keys etc. for say $40 a month and a set price for showings.
Millani is the largest planned development on the islands and about the farthest away from the beach. Just as soon stay in CA.
what if something broke, say a clogged drain or the washer broke. Did you coordinate some handyman to come out remotely, did you ever have problem getting things done?
Tenants are responsible for their clogs. If a licensed plumber say it is the building fault then I pay. They arrange. When I was in town I try to do all preventative maintenance. Otherwise try to have a handy man contact. Don't rent to people that want a handyman out to change light bulbs.
I'm up over 60% on my 2008 purchase and did not get it at a discount even tho the market was sketchy.
The condo median price in 2007 (and 2008) was $325,000
The condo median price in 2015 was $360,000
8 years and only 11% appreciation for condos
The single family median price in 2007 was $643,500
The single family median price in 2015 was $700,000
8 years and only 9% appreciation for single family homes
I'm not saying your specific condo unit didn't see that kind of appreciation. But your condo is clearly an exception, not the norm.
In 2012, trusty old Paul Brewbaker predicted $800K prices in 2015 and $1M by 2017. Obviously he was wrong. Going by historical data (i.e. "cycles") to predict future home prices is worthless in this day and age.
If we are indeed at or near the peak today, that would mean ~10% appreciation from one cycle (peak) to the next cycle (peak). If that's the case we have only recovered from the last cycle. In fact, once you consider cost of permits and construction today (vs 8 years ago), home prices have actually DROPPED from 2007.
The condo median price in 2007 (and 2008) was $325,000
The condo median price in 2015 was $360,000
8 years and only 11% appreciation for condos
The single family median price in 2007 was $643,500
The single family median price in 2015 was $700,000
8 years and only 9% appreciation for single family homes
I'm not saying your specific condo unit didn't see that kind of appreciation. But your condo is clearly an exception, not the norm.
In 2012, trusty old Paul Brewbaker predicted $800K prices in 2015 and $1M by 2017. Obviously he was wrong. Going by historical data (i.e. "cycles") to predict future home prices is worthless in this day and age.
If we are indeed at or near the peak today, that would mean ~10% appreciation from one cycle (peak) to the next cycle (peak). If that's the case we have only recovered from the last cycle. In fact, once you consider cost of permits and construction today (vs 8 years ago), home prices have actually DROPPED from 2007.
Something to consider.
That's the thing about real estate investing. 50% do better than the other 50%. I bought for $996 sf and the exact same model sold for $1667 sf. Probably was under contract in 2015 and sold for over $800,000! Seems like Paul was right on!
The thing about people that don't know historic data, such as where I invest they have seen over 4 decades of values doubling about every 10 years. Those are probably the bottom 50% of investors.
Are you saying your Honolulu property is still worth less than it's 05,06 value? I'm up over 60% on my 2008 purchase and did not get it at a discount even tho the market was sketchy.
I have long distance managed since 1982 without any problems other than the first 6 months that I used a property manager that charged for everything and did nothing. The key is having a high demand property. Almost 40 years and not one day of unplanned vacancy. No family and friends here, just ask the resident manager if there are any long term owners/tenants and introduce yourself and see if they'll handle keys etc. for say $40 a month and a set price for showings.
Millani is the largest planned development on the islands and about the farthest away from the beach. Just as soon stay in CA.
That's the thing about real estate investing. 50% do better than the other 50%. I bought for $996 sf and the exact same model sold for $1667 sf. Probably was under contract in 2015 and sold for over $800,000! Seems like Paul was right on!
The thing about people that don't know historic data, such as where I invest they have seen over 4 decades of values doubling about every 10 years. Those are probably the bottom 50% of investors.
Wait, $800K for 480 square feet?
There is only one building I could imagine commanding those kinds of prices... Trump. But the prices have skyrocketed on very strong demand from Asian countries (more than 50% of buyers from Japan alone) and record-setting tourism.
If there is continued weakness in Asia and we realize any softness in tourism, condotels in Waikiki will likely take a big hit.
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