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Anyone on Oahu that needs to commute long distances will be paying the price of rail. At least some of those with access to rail can save significant money by foregoing car ownership altogether or reducing a two car household to a one car household. It may result in a less convenient lifestyle but they could save a ton especially with today's automobile prices and ownership costs. This is an important consideration for lower income families.
I am just doubtful many will use it and this is why I assume the city will need to figure out ways on how to get people to ride.
I agree, though I think its worth noting that rail is never expected to be profitable for the city, and even decent ridership numbers would likely only represent a drop in the bucket. For context and comparison point, NYC's public transportation authority is still billions in the red each year. For calendar year 2021, NY's MTA had expenses of nearly $18 billion to operate the bus and subway system (which increased to almost $19.5 billion for 2022): https://council.nyc.gov/budget/wp-co...021/03/MTA.pdf ; https://new.mta.info/budget/MTA-operating-budget-basics Yet, NY collected just under $6 billion in fare revenue, though I caveat that this lower number was due to the pandemic. Even looking at 2019 numbers, though, the number wasn't exponentially higher.
Still, going to your point in a previous post about tolls, relying on fare revenues alone simply isn't sustainable, not for NY and it won't be for Honolulu. As a result, NY relies heavily on other taxes and tolls to make up the rest of it's roughly $16 billion in revenues. And, even then, the MTA there is still in the red billions of dollars each year. All of this is to say that I expect a lot more financial pain for folks down the line to fund this project.
I am pro Rail. Always have been. No people have another choice if the freeway is backed up. No more waiting 3 hours to get home. I moved away when Rene Mansho cancelled the Rail and was later indicted for fraud or corruption. It only took 50 years to build the rail, just like it took 50 years to build H-3. I don't hear complaining about H3. Public services never pay for themselves. Does the Police, Fire, Ambulance run in the green? What about parks, schools, roads? Nope. The country, state and city can't afford to maintain current infrastructure and roads. Being dependent on a car has made people poorer and has caused numerous wars around the middle east. The Military doesn't pay for itself. Does the justice system pay for itself? The government isn't a business. Does utilities pay for itself? Hawaii has issues adminstrating public projects why? Because politicians micromanage everything.
I am pro Rail. Always have been. No people have another choice if the freeway is backed up. No more waiting 3 hours to get home. I moved away when Rene Mansho cancelled the Rail and was later indicted for fraud or corruption. It only took 50 years to build the rail, just like it took 50 years to build H-3. I don't hear complaining about H3. Public services never pay for themselves. Does the Police, Fire, Ambulance run in the green? What about parks, schools, roads? Nope. The country, state and city can't afford to maintain current infrastructure and roads. Being dependent on a car has made people poorer and has caused numerous wars around the middle east. The Military doesn't pay for itself. Does the justice system pay for itself? The government isn't a business. Does utilities pay for itself? Hawaii has issues adminstrating public projects why? Because politicians micromanage everything.
That's all good and well, but I think it's important to note that rail isn't inherently going to make people less poor, especially when taxes have to be increased further (or tolls enacted) to pay for rail. As you aptly note, rail was never going to make money (but that's not the point of it), but it still has to be paid for some way.
While we're at a point of no return for rail, I'm also not going to put lipstick on a pig. With all of these services/institutions that don't pay for themselves, there is a serious point to be made about adding another multi-billion dollar enterprise that won't pay for itself, especially as more and more families continue to be priced out of Hawaii. The government isn't a business, but it does have to account for its expenses (especially at the state level, where governments have to balance their budgets and can't go on endless borrowing sprees like the federal government does), which means that we taxpayers have to pay more. And I seriously question the utility of rail (hopefully I'm proven wrong, but the route leaves much to be desired) in this instance.
On the point about people being dependent on a car making them poorer, I think we can safely say that rail is not going to make most people give up their cars, even if some use their cars less frequently. Estimates that I've read suggest that the overwhelming majority of rail riders will be the same people who currently use TheBus. Rail is still too inconveniently located (and that ain't changing soon) for most things. Vehicle registration fees, etc., won't somehow go down due rail.
I don't agree with that. While I hope I'm wrong, dismal ridership will eventually doom this. These stations have virtually no parking (except Aloha Stadium which isn't even in use) - most of these stations are not in a residential area - and it won't even go where people would want them to go (Waikiki/UH/Ala Moana, etc)
I don't agree with that. While I hope I'm wrong, dismal ridership will eventually doom this. These stations have virtually no parking (except Aloha Stadium which isn't even in use) - most of these stations are not in a residential area - and it won't even go where people would want them to go (Waikiki/UH/Ala Moana, etc)
I'd wager that the state and electorate are too ideologically set in their ways for things to change, which is why I write we're at the point of no return. Rail is a "progressive win" for working people, no matter the evidence to the contrary.
I'd wager that the state and electorate are too ideologically set in their ways for things to change, which is why I write we're at the point of no return. Rail is a "progressive win" for working people, no matter the evidence to the contrary.
Only 53% of voters approved rail when it was voted upon. The last civil beat poll I can find (Jul 2022) has rail support at 36%
Only 53% of voters approved rail when it was voted upon. The last civil beat poll I can find (Jul 2022) has rail support at 36%
The two concepts seem contradictory, but I don't think they are. I'd wager that voters are put off by how bungled rail build execution has been (from price overruns to other things) and disapprove from the project via that perspective, but don't otherwise want to abandon rail. For instance, voters overwhelmingly support building rail beyond Middle Street per a 2021 poll:
Quote:
The poll, conducted by MRG Research, found only 34% support for the project — nine points down from its peak popularity in 2015.
On the other hand, 53% oppose the project, and there are also more people who are undecided.
But when it comes to whether to address the money shortfall by cutting the project short, the public is divided: 26% say it should be halted at Middle Street, where it is nearly built.
A majority want it to go further — 19% to Aloha Tower and 44% saying it should still go to Ala Moana.
If voters wanted to get rid of rail, I'd think they at least start with supporting cutting the distance as short as possible instead of spending billions more to continue building. Note, this has been something that I've found, anecdotally, from many early rail opponents. IIRC, even the mod of this forum says she voted against rail, but still wants to see it completed.
I also note that rail has long been unpopular via public opinion polling, with 55% of voters disapproving going back to at least 2012.
Quote:
The Civil Beat Poll revealed Monday that 55 percent of likely Honolulu voters oppose the project, versus 34 percent in favor. But political observers say that despite the opposition, rail is far from dead.
Since 2012, we've had numerous elections and plenty of candidates running against rail. Yet, voters elected to keep the statue quo, which heavily weighs on why I think rail is here to stay.
If voters wanted to get rid of rail, I'd think they at least start with supporting cutting the distance as short as possible instead of spending billions more to continue building.
The voters can't get rid of rail - yet. The feds won't allow it.
The voters can't get rid of rail - yet. The feds won't allow it.
They aren't even choosing candidates who are pledging to work to get rid of rail.
Still, yes, voters (via their elected representatives) could get rid of rail. The feds cannot force Honolulu to keep rail. It would be expensive (the state/city would have to pay back all of those federal dollars and probably some more), but this isn't even a conversation being had in any serious manner. Note, there's actually very little that the federal government can force states to do based on the anti-commandeering principle inherent in the 10th Amendment as interpreted by the Supreme Court.
Last edited by prospectheightsresident; 06-12-2023 at 05:49 PM..
They aren't even choosing candidates who are pledging to work to get rid of rail.
Still, yes, voters (via their elected representatives) could get rid of rail. The feds cannot force Honolulu to keep rail. It would be expensive (the state/city would have to pay back all of those federal dollars and probably some more), but this isn't even a conversation being had in any serious manner. Note, there's actually very little that the federal government can force states to do based on the anti-commandeering principle inherent in the 10th Amendment as interpreted by the Supreme Court.
It isn't a conversation in a serious manner simply because Oahu can't pay back the Feds the rail costs.
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