Has Ohio Seen Its Population Growth Bottom? (Columbus, Dayton: transplants, 2013)

[jbcmh81]

As everyone knows, the state has not exactly had high rates of growth for some time. It's last decadal growth over 5% was 1960-1970, and had averaged just over 2% per decade 1970-2010. The 2000s had Ohio near the very bottom of growth, with a rate of 1.6%.

Since 2010, the census has been showing very low growth estimates.

Population Estimates Change Per Year Since 2000
2000-2001: +34,068
2001-2002: +20,485
2002-2003: +26,899
2003-2004: +17,463
2004-2005: +11,069
2005-2006: +17,893
2006-2007: +19,255
2007-2008: +14,923
2008-2009: +13,505
2009-2010: +7,286
2010-2011: +4,337
2011-2012: +3,259
2012-2013: +17,777

From an estimates standpoint, 2012-2013 was the best year since 2006-2007 and the second best in the last decade. The state had the overall best numerical growth rate change out of all 50 states from 2012-2013, moving up 18 spots from its previous place near the bottom. This isn't the only reason to think the state may have hit bottom.

Domestic migration is recovering.

Difference Between Out and In Domestic Migration 2005-2012
2005: -41,089
2006: -31,437
2007: -24,326
2008: -35,998
2009: -34,463
2010: -11,771
2011: -12,574
2012: -1,736

There is some variation up and down, but the general trend is that the losses are going down over time.

Still early yet to see if these are longer-term changes, but so far, it seems to be that the state may have finally turned, or at least has begun to turn, a real corner in population.

[Natural510]

It's all speculative, but I don't see Ohio gaining back its Congressional seats any time soon, and probably are at risk of losing another in 2020. Other than Columbus, there still is no destination for transplants. Obamacare has slowed hiring in the medical field (hopefully only short-term), and military cuts will further be felt at WFAFB and the Dayton area.
I do think the Sunbelt bubble will bottom out eventually, but that doesn't mean Ohio or the Midwest as a whole will benefit, not until the region becomes less of a follower and more of a leader.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by Natural510

It's all speculative, but I don't see Ohio gaining back its Congressional seats any time soon, and probably are at risk of losing another in 2020. Other than Columbus, there still is no destination for transplants. Obamacare has slowed hiring in the medical field (hopefully only short-term), and military cuts will further be felt at WFAFB and the Dayton area.
I do think the Sunbelt bubble will bottom out eventually, but that doesn't mean Ohio or the Midwest as a whole will benefit, not until the region becomes less of a follower and more of a leader.

The time when Ohio stops mattering in national elections is a long time off. The point is not that I'm expecting the state to start booming, but even modest growth would be something the state hasn't been able to see in 50 years. Just like all booms end, so do all declines eventually.

Outside of a few select areas in the Sun Belt, there is very little I see them leading in, aside from growth itself, and I don't think whatever they lead in has been the general cause of the growth anyway. Economics were, but those are changing, as was inevitable.