[nightbird47]

Originally Posted by debbie at bouontiful

My daughter in Stillwater had a horrible storm and took out her largest tree in her front yard. So, you guys got some bad straight line winds. I am guessing.

In Cushing it started with a huge boom, and the whole side of the sky was lit. It immedialty knocked out dish, which meant it was over us. Winds were really strong and it poured for some time. We lost power for a little while too. The yard is growing like it was May.

It was definately a storm not to sleep through. I think the wind direction was north west, since it blew an empty large box off my porch. Usually rain doesn't touch the plants on the porch, but no need to water any of them today.

Quite an exciting morning.

[rockyinyourradio]

Seems like everything is going around the Piedmont area as of late.. Only a trace of rain so far this month here at the farm. Yesterday morning, quite a bit of lightning, a little wind (20mph maybe) but hardly a drop.

Chances of rain continue until about Tue. Very hit and miss stuff, then dry until late next weekend for the most part. Still thinking the last two weeks of the month may be a little more active. Computer models have been unreliable as of late so in honesty.. my confidence in what may happen is a little less than usual.

[StillwaterTownie]

Originally Posted by educator1953

StillwaterTownie:

I was up early today watching Emily Sutton's weather forecast on KFOR, and she said that Stillwater was in for a good amount of rain this morning. I thought of you and how you said that Stillwater misses out on the rain a lot of times.

So, did you get a good amount of rain this morning?

Thanks. Yes, and later, KFOR's Mike Morgan commented on Stillwater having gotten a lot of rain for a change. But amounts were all over the place. Mike said it was 1.7", the airport had .72", the west side had 2.05", and I had 1.42". Someone from east of Jardot, or the far east side had 2.4". One had to be located in just the right place under the storm clouds to get a really big, impressive amount. Wind wasn't much of an issue here.

In the meantime, this morning, Saturday, Stillwater sure got bypassed by a good rain. In neighboring Pawnee County it rained over 2".

[rockyinyourradio]

A computer model out of Japan called the JAMSTEC has had some reasonably good reliability over the last couple of years. It was within the ball park of predicting the last two winters for here in Oklahoma.
The winter coming up.. if this should verify, based on it's most recent data.. could be near historic for Oklahoma with lots of below normal temperatures and moisture, especially early on. What's ironic, it has much the US, from the Rocky Mountains on east; especially the mid south into the northeast.. just brutal, with unusual cold and especially snow and ice. The rest of the North American continent, Canada in particular and.. the rest of the world.. above normal temperatures by as much as 4 degrees F.

In the shorter term.. Look for typical August weather thru the end of the month with only spotty precip. possible. While many of us will stay mostly dry, pop up thunderstorms may occur and drop a quick inch of rain and will be possible most anywhere in the state. Longer range models still indicate a potentially wet first half of September for here in Oklahoma. I'm still on board with at least one excessive rain event sometime that month or maybe October. Several years passed with similar weather patterns have resulted in above normal rainfall. We'll see how this pans out. Don't forget, as I've said in previous posts, it's just a computer model, but one that is being paid more attention to. More to come soon. Have a blessed day.

[nightbird47]

Interesting that the report on the news today was we should expect a colder and wetter fall. I for one will be glad after these really hot 100's. I'll invest in a few new pairs of military grade thermals and will be happily toasty warm even if its colder. No way you can take off enough when its just too hot.

So, what does this mean for winter and snow?

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by nightbird47

Interesting that the report on the news today was we should expect a colder and wetter fall. I for one will be glad after these really hot 100's. I'll invest in a few new pairs of military grade thermals and will be happily toasty warm even if its colder. No way you can take off enough when its just too hot.

So, what does this mean for winter and snow?

Hi Nightbird! This el nino, which has been long advertised by the models has been slow to come on, but I do believe it will be a noticeable one but not the "super nino" that the media was going off about. As I said in a previous post, this will be centred more in the central Pacific near the equator by later this winter and will have at least some effect on our weather, but my hopes for an overall wetter scenario that el nino's can bring may not come to fruition.. at least like I like to see it.

Some of the newest data, and the analogue years with similar weather patterns, suggest a winter more like 1976-77 and 2002-'03. Both of those winters had some impressive chill but was significantly below normal in moisture as well. 2009-'10 is another year to consider with similar weather patterns; but that was especially snowy in December and January. I'll be digging deeper into other analogue years and continue to monitor the changes coming and give my official winter forecast later in October, but as of now.. I'm still sticking to some impressive arctic outbreaks and at least near normal snowfall for most of Oklahoma.

In the shorter term.. I'm beginning to think that September may run anywhere from 2-4 degrees above normal and still at least normal to moderately above normal precip. highest chances of excessive rain in the southeast third of the state. Thursday night thru Saturday may see some locally drenching thunderstorms most anywhere in the state and again around the early to middle part of next week, then a potential dry spell with moderately above normal temps. lasting well into the month.

[_redbird_]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

In the shorter term.. I'm beginning to think that September may run anywhere from 2-4 degrees above normal and still at least normal to moderately above normal precip. highest chances of excessive rain in the southeast third of the state. Thursday night thru Saturday may see some locally drenching thunderstorms most anywhere in the state and again around the early to middle part of next week, then a potential dry spell with moderately above normal temps. lasting well into the month.

We got our drenching on Tuesday, 9-1-14! It was great.

Rocky, I hear we are heading for a nice cool down. Temps in the 70s and lows in the 60s this weekend?! Very nice!

[_redbird_]

Yo! Rocky! How cold will it get during this arctic bomb or whatever they are calling it?

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by _redbird_

Yo! Rocky! How cold will it get during this arctic bomb or whatever they are calling it?

Yo Redbird!! Funny how just now I was thinking that once again this thread has been buried and frankly I didn't want to resurrect it due to an overall lack of interest, but thought, what the heck, I'll just check and see if anything has been posted.. sure enough! Redbird gives me a shot of confidence

So.. regarding our upcoming weather pattern.. so far with the exception that I really thought we would be wetter this fall, and a slightly milder October than forecasted.. the upcoming pattern I saw coming during the summer and fall is coming to pass.. and will so in a brutal way. I haven't seen what's coming down the pike, temperature's this cold for November since 1976. That was a cold month and will follow closely to that time. Today is the last day we'll see temperatures above 60 for at least 10 days minimum and possibly right up to Thanksgiving. Coldest temperature's will occur Thursday morning with lows between 16-25F generally north of I-44 and highs generally staying below or right around 40 starting tomorrow morning with an "invigorating" north wind.

I haven't really looked to hard at the latest data, but yesterday they featured the worst of the cold next week along with at least some light precip. which will be a mix of snow/sleet/freezing drizzle. Earlier last week, the models had an epic snow and ice storm for the upcoming weekend which I knew was not to be, sure enough the models backed off. I think while this period of subnormal temperatures are around, we'll be lucky to see no more than a quarter inch of moisture at most before we pull out of this by Thanksgiving (give or take a couple of days). I do think we will see enough winter precip. though that travel could get a little dicey though.. which for mid November will be notable but not all that unusual.

I'll post more when I look at data and have time to do so.

[_redbird_]

I love your posts, Rocky.