Pacific City, OR--col, housing, quality of life (Brookings: earthquake, island)

[Metlakatla]

And a lot of people in Portland will die too when the "big one" hits. Better run, Nell.

[texasdiver]

Originally Posted by Metlakatla

And a lot of people in Portland will die too when the "big one" hits. Better run, Nell.

Probably not.

Most of the big death tolls due to earthquakes are in countries that use unreinforced masonry construction. Places like Pakistan and China where homes are made of brick or adobe that is often unreinforced by rebar and such. So people get buried in their own homes by the thousands. There are some old historic brick buildings in Portland that are extreme hazards, but for the most part, any building built in the past 100 years is going to be reasonably earthquake resistant. Especially any wood-framed home. You can shake them up a tremendous amount and while the sheetrock will crack and stuff will fly off the walls and shelves, the house will stay standing. The second worst earthquake in recorded history was the 1964 earthquake in Anchorage Alaska which registered a 9.2 and lasted almost 5 minutes. Only 9 people died in Anchorage from the quake itself while about 120 died from the subsequent Tsunami that hit various towns along the coast like Kodiak.

Contrast that to big quakes in Asia that kill hundreds of thousands due to masonry buildings.

[Metlakatla]

Originally Posted by texasdiver

Probably not.

I agree. I was just responding in kind to the hyberbolic and typically alarmist claim that "the entire Oregon coast is going to be swept away!!!"

[Nell Plotts]

I am simply relating the science. It is my understanding that the biggest risk to life is the tsunami and the earthquake need not be in the immediate vicinity.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Originally Posted by Nell Plotts

I am simply relating the science. It is my understanding that the biggest risk to life is the tsunami and the earthquake need not be in the immediate vicinity.

Maybe Astoria is the best place on the coast (in terms of Tsunamis?)... There is a section of Astoria that is on solid rock (but, the rest of it is landslide prone). Maybe parts of Depoe Bay???

You probably want to live 200 feet above sea level (and learn the Tsunami routes).

But, I don't buy the whole 35% chance (no, that's an Insurance thing for raising Earthquake Insurance Rates)...

Here are the facts:

Estimated Years Interval (in Years)
(via 2005) (via 2003)
about 9 pm, January 26, 1700 (NS) 780
780–1190 CE 880–960 CE 210
690–730 CE 550–750 CE 330
350–420 CE 250–320 CE 910
660-440 BCE 610–450 BCE 400
980–890 BCE 910–780 BCE 250
1440–1340 BCE 1150–1220 BCE unknown

As you can see the Interval between 9.0+ Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone is estimated between 210 years and 910 years. We are at year 321. So, it could happen in the next minute or it might be approximately 700 years from now. It's not worth worrying about too much (but, if State Farm won't insure you then you probably ought to think twice).

You don't want to be on a Portland bridge when it happens (or generally in downtown Portland -- which is built on an old river bed)...

[SusVelo]

Originally Posted by Wile E. Coyote

Maybe Astoria is the best place on the coast (in terms of Tsunamis?)... There is a section of Astoria that is on solid rock (but, the rest of it is landslide prone). Maybe parts of Depoe Bay???

You probably want to live 200 feet above sea level (and learn the Tsunami routes).

But, I don't buy the whole 35% chance (no, that's an Insurance thing for raising Earthquake Insurance Rates)...

Here are the facts:

Estimated Years Interval (in Years)
(via 2005) (via 2003)
about 9 pm, January 26, 1700 (NS) 780
780–1190 CE 880–960 CE 210
690–730 CE 550–750 CE 330
350–420 CE 250–320 CE 910
660-440 BCE 610–450 BCE 400
980–890 BCE 910–780 BCE 250
1440–1340 BCE 1150–1220 BCE unknown

As you can see the Interval between 9.0+ Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone is estimated between 210 years and 910 years. We are at year 321. So, it could happen in the next minute or it might be approximately 700 years from now. It's not worth worrying about too much (but, if State Farm won't insure you then you probably ought to think twice).

You don't want to be on a Portland bridge when it happens (or generally in downtown Portland -- which is built on an old river bed)...

I think the tsunami zones say get up 60-80 feet, but 200 would do it.

The other thing to consider is that if you survive the tsunami and earthquake, it might be a while to get help given the destruction to infrastructure that will occur.

[texasdiver]

Originally Posted by SusVelo

I think the tsunami zones say get up 60-80 feet, but 200 would do it.

The other thing to consider is that if you survive the tsunami and earthquake, it might be a while to get help given the destruction to infrastructure that will occur.

The other issue is what are your property values and quality of life going to be if you live some place where you might have found high ground but the rest of the surrounding community gets washed away?

If you are investing your life in a place I would think it isn't just your own property that you want to consider. It's the surrounding community as a whole.

[leastprime]

How bad the Tsunami will depend on the direction the surge and length of surge.
If the Tsunami comes from the south and into the Nestucca's mouth, the surge will bottle up around the grocery store and pile up a lot of debris.
If from the north, the surge will be less damaging because the Cape will block initial waves and mitigate the surge.
Terra-del-mar will cease to exist no matter what direction.
Don't eat the clams: Cow manure contamination. You wont be able to dig them out, anyway until they work themselves out.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Originally Posted by SusVelo

I think the tsunami zones say get up 60-80 feet, but 200 would do it.

The other thing to consider is that if you survive the tsunami and earthquake, it might be a while to get help given the destruction to infrastructure that will occur.

Yes, of course, if you were not correct Portland would be located along the Oregon Coast rather than being somewhat safely inland.

The reason I said 200 feet has to do with sea level risk in the event of abrupt climate change (abrupt sea level rise). Also, the Alaska 1964 Earthquake had 220 foot waves (but, differently configured geography)...

You could have a survival pod for each person in the household.

Products.

[leastprime]

100-200 ft at the base of the Cape. The TimeShares are theoretically above the Tzone but the surge will pile up here.