Will Republican Party make a play for PA in 2016? (Philadelphia: cost, legal)

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by I_Like_Spam

The Republicans might not have that big of a chance to win PA in 2016, but I don't see Christie as having any particular advantage as the GOP nominee.

Christie's allegiance to Obama's program will turn off voters who dislike the president's ideas and goals, and those who like what the Democrats have been doing are almost assuredly in the bag for Biden, Mrs. Clinton or whoever else wins that nomination.

Senator Paul of course has connections to the Commonwealth, his father hails from Green Tree, PA, so he might connect better than most.

Senator Paul left the state right after he finished college and I don't think most people even know he ever lived here since he's such a part of Texas now. He would have never gotten anywhere politically if he stayed in PA.

[PacoMartin]

In 2012 President Obama made a short foray for two days into PA in June or July. But I don't think he spent much time in the state after that. With Mitt Romney having written off the state, it's a waste of his time.

Everything is televised and all television is a potential commercial. While a Democratic candidate may draw a large crowd in San Francisco, the video coverage is likely that hurt him in VA or NC where the vote is close.

The large Republican congressional delegation in PA would love to see their candidate campaign here, but I wonder if it will be considered a good expenditure of funds.

President Obama won the following percentage of votes in 2012
51.97% Pennsylvania
50.67% Ohio
50.01% Florida

It is difficult at first glance to see why Pennsylvania has been considered not worth campaigning in, but Ohio is usually one of the most heavily contested state in the campaign. Many of the usual demographic indicators are similar. Ohio even has a larger black percentage.

16.6% Black population alone in Florida
12.5% Black population alone in Ohio
11.4% Black population alone in Pennsylvania

91.16% Florida urban population
78.66% Pennsylvania urban population
77.92% Ohio urban population

23.2% Florida Latino population
6.1% Pennsylvania Latino population
3.3% Ohio Latino population

If the Republicans run a Latino, the larger Latino population (compared to Ohio) may make both states campaignable.

[I_Like_Spam]

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

23.2% Florida Latino population
6.1% Pennsylvania Latino population
3.3% Ohio Latino population

If the Republicans run a Latino, the larger Latino population (compared to Ohio) may make both states campaignable.

I just don't think that nominating Ted Cruz-arguably the most prominent Latino in the GOP nowadays- will make the Republicans any more or less viable in 2016 in Pennsylvania.

I would hope that all voters would vote on the issues, instead of who their antecedents were.

But states do change, West Virginia was very reliably Democrat through the 90's, even voting for big time loser Dukakis is 1988--today it is solidly in the "R" column. Its not beyond the pale for Pennsylvania or any other state to change.

The Republicans have a challenge for the near future, it isn't a lack of nominating a Latino or a black that poses the problem, its the fact that the Affordable Care Act provides very large subsidies to a much larger group of recipients than any other entitlement currently out there and people vote their financial interests. Once this kicks in, the GOP will have to abandon their calls for lower taxes and fiscal prudency for social welfare to appeal to a majority- or at least deemphasize it big time and concentrate on their social agenda- gun freedom, abortion, gay marriage, etc.- to craft a majority in Pennsylvania

[Dawne]

Originally Posted by trackstar13

Surpisingly in the last presidential election Allegheny county and the Pittsburgh metro was not as highly democratic as you would think. Obama won Allegheny county, but the vote was closer than I expected. Also, Erie county is a another democratic party stronghold in the state.

Yep, the four corners.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by I_Like_Spam

How can Christie be a "hope" for the GOP in Pennsylvania if it is almost a complete certainty that he would lose, in your estimation?

Winning "some" of the swing votes isn't much use, if you still lose, and I can't see Christie winning enough blue collar Democrats to make up for the conservatives who don't like him because of his support for President Obama.


Actually, Gov. Christie would be better advised to switch parties if he really wants to be president.

This is a hypothetical situation and I am merely providing my opinion based on the information we have available. I believe that in 2016 a democratic candidate, whoever it may be, will win PA. I also believe that if Christie somehow wins the GOP nomination he has a chance to win PA, not an excellent chance, but a better chance than Romney and some other recent GOP candidates. PA has a good number of blue collar democrats who typically vote for the democratic candidate simply because of their allegiance to unions. This candidates will be a toss-up if Christie is the candidate because he is not a union buster like Scott Walker and is instead more neutral when it comes to public service and private unions. As you already know, unions are a big part of PA and typically play a part in the gubernatorial and presidential elections. As a final point, moderate Republicans also like Christie because, while he has been against gay marriage, he has not had overly strong stances on social issues.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by Dawne

Yep, the four corners.

Four corners?

[numberman]

Erie, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Philly, and Pittsburgh.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by numberman

Erie, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Philly, and Pittsburgh.

I understand the cities the poster was referring to, I have just never heard anyone use the term before. I wonder how many forum members have heard of the "Four Corners" in PA?

[PacoMartin]

My original question is what will it take for Republicans to mount a campaign in Pennsylvania? The Democratic candidate has one in both Pennsylvania and Maryland for the last six elections. But MD is different demographically than PA. MD is 30% African American, and PA is 11.4% African American.

Looking at the percentages it is easy to see why the Republican party would simply write off MD at the starting line as not worth the money to campaign.

% of popular vote for Democratic Candidate
YEAR Maryl., Penns.
2012 61.97%, 51.97%
2008 61.92%, 54.49%
2004 55.91%, 50.92%
2000 56.57%, 50.60%
1996 54.25%, 49.17%
1992 49.80%, 45.15%
1988 48.20%, 48.29% <==== Democratic candidate lost

If the percentages seem small for a winning candidate in 1992 and 1996 remember that Poirot took a lot of votes.

Given the large number of electoral college votes in PA, you would think that PA would be worth some campaign activity.

[jazzy jeff]

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

In 2012 President Obama made a short foray for two days into PA in June or July. But I don't think he spent much time in the state after that. With Mitt Romney having written off the state, it's a waste of his time.

Everything is televised and all television is a potential commercial. While a Democratic candidate may draw a large crowd in San Francisco, the video coverage is likely that hurt him in VA or NC where the vote is close.

The large Republican congressional delegation in PA would love to see their candidate campaign here, but I wonder if it will be considered a good expenditure of funds.

President Obama won the following percentage of votes in 2012
51.97% Pennsylvania
50.67% Ohio
50.01% Florida

It is difficult at first glance to see why Pennsylvania has been considered not worth campaigning in, but Ohio is usually one of the most heavily contested state in the campaign. Many of the usual demographic indicators are similar. Ohio even has a larger black percentage.

16.6% Black population alone in Florida
12.5% Black population alone in Ohio
11.4% Black population alone in Pennsylvania

91.16% Florida urban population
78.66% Pennsylvania urban population
77.92% Ohio urban population

23.2% Florida Latino population
6.1% Pennsylvania Latino population
3.3% Ohio Latino population

If the Republicans run a Latino, the larger Latino population (compared to Ohio) may make both states campaignable.

A Republican Latino would of course have to be one that supports Comprehensive Immigration Reform (assuming it does not pass before then) in order to pick up more Hispanic vote.

However the key for Repubs in Pa, are the suburbs of Phila, especially Montgomery County which is home to a lot of social liberals.