Why does rural PA matter? (Pittsburgh, Erie: closing, income, live)

[KoNgFooCj]

When it comes to politics in this state, why do the rural parts of the state seem so powerful. Especially during presidential campaigns. It seems like in the last presidential race, rural PA is talked about even more than Philly or Pittsburgh. Ditto in this race. We always hear about how Trump is holding a rally in Middleofnowhere, PA , but there's seemingly not an appropriate interest by democratic candidates in places like this. That's weird considering PA would be a pretty easy win for the democrats if they actually campaigned here.

It seems like in Illinois for example, it's just granted as routine that the state is going to vote democrat. You might say this is because only 10% of Illinois is rural compared with 20% of Pennsylvania. But why does PA have twice the rural population anyway? PA has more cities. More than just Philly and Pittsburgh too. And If you combine the metro areas of Philly and Pittsburgh, they both amount to close to 9 million people, pretty much the size of Chicagoland. I guess I'm wondering why Chicago is more than enough to guarantee a win for the democrats but Philly and Pittsburgh together can't even guarantee them a win at all as we saw in 2016.

And then there's gerrymandering too. I feel like Pennsylvania's gerrymandered for the Republicans while Illinois' gerrymandered for the democrats. It also looks like its going to be difficult for democrats to get an even number of seats in the general assembly, let alone get a majority. Do you think this will change in the near future? Any yeah, I would just like opinions on why Pennsylvania is the way it is.

[jtab4994]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

And then there's gerrymandering too. I feel like Pennsylvania's gerrymandered for the Republicans while Illinois' gerrymandered for the democrats.

OK, let's get you up to speed on recent political events in PA.

The state Supreme Court recently ruled that the Republicans' gerrymandering of congressional districts was so egregious, and their attempts to fix the problem had failed so badly, that the Supreme Court stepped in and re-drew the boundaries themselves for the 2018 elections.

Naturally Republicans cried foul, saying that the new boundaries favor Democrats, but it's a done deal. After the 2020 census the boundaries will be re-drawn by the Assembly again, and whoever wins the majority gets to do it, with the Supreme Court looking over their shoulder of course.

Rural voters have historically been Republican, at least in my lifetime (born 1960) although that wasn't always the case.

Here in the Poconos we had always felt gerrymandered out of a State Senate seat until around 2010 when we got our own seat. There's always something to complain about.

[SteelCityRising]

I never understand why rural PA was historically ignored, actually.

Sec. Clinton's campaign ignored rural PA while then-candidate Donald J. Trump held rally after rally in rural PA. His raucous rallies in Wilkes-Barre likely helped swing Luzerne County from a reliably Democratic County to a county that strongly backed him in 2016. Luzerne County has a relatively high population, too (well over 300,000). Sec. Clinton's campaign probably assumed PA was a "given" for her, given that she still has family in suburban Scranton; however, her campaign ignoring rural PA came back to bite her in the derriere because PA was a crucial state to lose for the Democrats.

President Trump is still insanely popular in rural PA, too. My family and friends back in Luzerne County almost uniformly LOVE him. ALL plan to rush out next year to vote to re-elect him. I still see Trump billboards, bumper stickers, yard signs, etc. everywhere when I travel between Allegheny County (home) and Luzerne County (hometown).

Then there are the admittedly lackluster Democratic candidates. Their presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, is a snoozefest who will NOT excite enough of we urban Millennials to flock to the polls to defeat President Trump. I believe President Trump is going to win PA again in 2020 due to likely prolific turnout in rural PA in his favor while Democrats largely sit out next Fall's election. I can't even guarantee that I'll come out to vote for Joe Biden because Biden's supporters have yet to give me a reason to support him other than "at least he's not Trump".

[Pilot1]

Originally Posted by jtab4994

OK, let's get you up to speed on recent political events in PA.

The state Supreme Court recently ruled that the Republicans' gerrymandering of congressional districts was so egregious, and their attempts to fix the problem had failed so badly, that the Supreme Court stepped in and re-drew the boundaries themselves for the 2018 elections.

Naturally Republicans cried foul, saying that the new boundaries favor Democrats, but it's a done deal. After the 2020 census the boundaries will be re-drawn by the Assembly again, and whoever wins the majority gets to do it, with the Supreme Court looking over their shoulder of course.

Rural voters have historically been Republican, at least in my lifetime (born 1960) although that wasn't always the case.

Here in the Poconos we had always felt gerrymandered out of a State Senate seat until around 2010 when we got our own seat. There's always something to complain about.

You forgot to mention the PA Supreme Court is owned by PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS so re-drew the map to greatly favor their own kind. Yeah, that's fair.

[pman]

I'm not sure hershey qualifies as the middle of nowhere

[PAhippo]

Not sure all rural PA loves him. Saw a Trump sign on a manure spreader once.

[thecoalman]

Originally Posted by pman

I'm not sure hershey qualifies as the middle of nowhere

Neither would Scranton, Wilkes-Barre or Montoursville(right next to Williamsport). They are all smaller urban areas. You can actually pick out the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area on satellite map zoomed out significantly if you know what you are looking for, I mean way out as in looking at the eastern US. It looks like fingernail surrounded by green.



Obama easily won Luzerne County for his two elections which includes Wilkes-Barre. Just ten years ago the Democrats held a 2:1 advantage with registrations. That is rapidly changing. In 2016 Trump stopped in Luzerne County twice and the second stop was the day before the election. Trump won Luzerne County with the same margins Obama had and that margin can account for most of his statewide margin of victory. In Lackawanna County which encompasses Scranton he did not win the County but made significant inroads. The population of Luzerne and Lackawanna counties is over 500K so it's not insignificant.



These smaller urban areas are the keys to a win in PA and I'm not sure what an Elizabeth Warren is going to say to entice them. Biden is perhaps the best chance to win votes here but only because he's the most moderate of the field.



One last thing to add. Trumps had a rally in Mountoursville during the Spring, he had a crowd estimated between 10 to 15K. The Mountoursville population combined with nearby Williamsport is about 33K, perhaps 100K if you wanted to include smaller towns and the urban areas within a few miles drive. A few days later Biden held a rally in Philly and only managed to get 2 to 6K.... it's been suggested that 6K is way over estimated.

[luv4horses]

Trump campaigns target white Americans especially extremists with anger issues who are easily swayed by individualized social media delivery. Would this describe rural rather than urban-suburban PA? Probably

This is despite the fact that a lot of rural PA has generous and productive residents, but many may not be voters because they don’t care for “ politics “.

[thecoalman]

Originally Posted by luv4horses

Trump campaigns target white Americans especially extremists with anger issues who are easily swayed by individualized social media delivery. Would this describe rural rather than urban-suburban PA? Probably

Thanks for this. Keep up the good work.

[Marie Joseph]

Originally Posted by luv4horses

Trump campaigns target white Americans especially extremists with anger issues who are easily swayed by individualized social media delivery. Would this describe rural rather than urban-suburban PA? Probably

This is despite the fact that a lot of rural PA has generous and productive residents, but many may not be voters because they don’t care for “ politics “.

I am not for Trump and consider myself a left-leaning independent. I was formerly a delegate for the Democrats and left in 2016. I moved to PA around the same time and while I live/work in Erie my company has locations in a couple of very rural counties where we are literally the only employer or one of just one of a couple employers. I interact with rural Pennsylvanians on a fairly regular basis and it isn't accurate or fair to characterize them as white extremists with anger issues who are easily swayed.

It's true that quite a few of Trump's votes in Pennsylvania came from crossover Democrats, most of them working class/blue collar Democrats. There is a reason for this and it isn't because rural Pennsylvanians are a bunch of racists rednecks. The Democratic party overall has become too focused on the elite class and when Trump came along talking about bringing back jobs, that appealed to rural Pennsylvanians since that is something they could immediately relate to. Rural Democrats also don't get the frequent talk of gun control--many of them own guns for hunting or recreational target shooting and find it strange that there is so much controversy about guns.

The Democrats would do themselves a huge favor to lose the elitist mentality if they ever hope to gain back the confidence of the working class Democrats. I'm no longer working class income-wise but come from a working class background and still find some of the Democrats irritating.

Rural Democrats tend to want to hear about practical plans such as healthcare, economy, jobs. The talk about closing down coal mines and heavily regulating factories freaked them out. Rural PA and Rust Belt PA definitely don't want to hear about MORE industry leaving. The Democrats did not talk that much about these things in 2016 and this really hurt them in the Rust Belt and rural areas. I sincerely hope that they have learned from this because I absolutely do not want to deal with another term of Trump because we already know the Senate will not impeach him.

I have met racists on both sides of the aisle and it is not confined to the right or the left.