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These threads are filled of how bad the economy is, and when the economy gets better we will all be saved and be rich, and if your not in a job then obviously things are bad, or if your job is on the line then you want the economy to improve - but lets say around 80 percent of people are still employed in their jobs, and have not lost their homes. If we just focus on the majority of people are getting by, perhaps not making lots of money, but keeping going.
if your in relatively safe salaried secure job and have been employed throughout the recession- lets say the "economy" starts improving and unemployment starts going way down to 3-4 Percent(I appreciate the real figure is higher), House Prices start Rocketing back up to 2006 levels, and there is lots of credit available etc, and the stock market is rocketing.
Does it make a real significant difference? Your house becomes more valuable, but then so does your neighbour's property - so you don't really gain anything unless your downsizing or own a number of properties. Perhaps you could release some of the equity.
The Stockmarket rises, your investments become more valuable - but its only useful if your retiring now, or cash in your investments and pensions at the right time - and likely to be smoothed out by the next recession in the long term.
More Job security yes, but not always, you can lose a job in the best economy due to organisational changes, there is still the same underlying competition, and you will find in a good economy there are more immigrants, people from other countries taking advantage of the good economy and therefore adding more competition to the jobs market.
Payrises, and better wages, yes probably overall employees will earn more - but not large amounts more, maybe 10 - 30 percent more at best - You get certain fields where there is a boom, and there is shortage of qualified experienced people, and these people will get very well paid- but thats only because of shortage of people, and that can happen in a bad economy.
Is it likely minimum wage employees in Walmart will get payrises because the economy is good, is it likely that government employees will get payrises? Is it likely your boss will hand you a payrise because business is good?
I just wonder to the vast majority of working people - earning a wage/salary and still employed if in a bad economy or good economy makes that much difference.
Obviously if your a business owner, own a portfolio of properties, have large stock market investments then yes a good economy will make a difference.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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I wouldn't expect the economy to ever go back to what it was, people are now aware of what can happen, and will not go back to spending like there is no tomorrow. Also, everyone os so far behind on investments, home values and bills now that it will take years of a great economy to catch back up to
where they were in 2008. The next labor crisis will be when the huge numbers of baby boomers retire. They are still working into their 70s to survive, but when they do go there will be a shortage of skilled workers and you will see salaries go way up with employers competing for the best people, but the result will be higher prices for everything.
When the economy improves we'll have to figure out how to pay for all the damage we've done to it. Social Security becomes insolvent in 2036. What do we do about that? I mean, anyone who chose to rely on it in the past ten years is an idiot rube who deserves the fate, but a lot of older workers who are on the edge of retiring are screwed. Even the responsible ones who did save got hit by the stock market. Realistically, we're looking at a lost decade. For people like my mom who will probably retire in 2026, ten years before SS dries up, what do you do? You're old enough that there's not much you can do to save more to make up for the lost decade and you enough you might not have the decency to die before SS runs out of money.
For people my age... well, why are we paying 15% of our income to support the grandiose lifestyle our parents lived? I mean, they're the ones that ran up public debt to 100% of GDP and left us holding the bag. And now they expect us to pay for their generous pension plans on top of that just because they couldn't get their ducks in a row? Why? Not to sound ungrateful, but how is any of this our fault? You made your bed and left us holding the mess. Don't expect us to happily increase our tax burdens to pay for your pension on top of the higher taxes we'll have to payback all the money you spent that you didn't have.
Plenty can happen before then. Needs testing, raising the maximum contribution, changing the minimum age to begin claiming benefits...
Unless you are self employed, Social Security, plus Medicare is 7.65%. You seem to forget that those retirees also paid into the system. Many folks also pay even higher health care premiums while not making claims. That is how insurance style systems work, by spreading out costs/risks.
You will get your Social Security. Given the miserable saving habits of most Americans (and the extinction of private pensions), I would not be too quick to "opt out". Old age comes at you like a freight train. One minute it is a rumble in the distance, suddenly it is bearing down on you. Left to their own devices, most people would be begging for alms.
Last edited by shaker281; 05-06-2012 at 11:11 PM..
Where are you guys getting 2036? I will even use MSNBC/AP as a source. If you are going to try to make a point, at least get your fact straight. It is 2033, but the trend is 3 years for each year, so next year it will be 2030....
Social Security heading for insolvency even faster - politics - msnbc.com (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47139193/ns/politics/t/social-security-heading-insolvency-even-faster/#.T6dWc1L5PKc - broken link)
I am not aware of a trend line showing it moves up "three years for each year". Do you have a link to illustrate that? Was the number 2039 two years ago? And 2042 a year before that?
Actually, barring another catastrophic government meltdown, the private sector looks really good at the moment. Balance sheets have pretty much been cleaned up, companies are sitting on large piles of cash, sales are up, productivity is up, and exports are way up. The only thing that companies are waiting on now are the November elections and/or the fate of Obamacare in the Supreme Court. If the GOP wins or the Supremes void the healthcare legislation, then you'll see a hiring spree.
Personally, if you want to see a real pickup in employment, which in turn yields an increase in salaries, then lower the corporate income tax down to a level commensurate with the rest of the industrialized world. Right now, corporate overseas subsidiaries are sitting on untold billions in profits that they can't really bring back to our shores because corporate taxes in the United States are far higher.
Actually, barring another catastrophic government meltdown, the private sector looks really good at the moment. Balance sheets have pretty much been cleaned up, companies are sitting on large piles of cash, sales are up, productivity is up, and exports are way up. The only thing that companies are waiting on now are the November elections and/or the fate of Obamacare in the Supreme Court. If the GOP wins or the Supremes void the healthcare legislation, then you'll see a hiring spree.
No you won't. Hiring is driven solely by market demand, not by taxes or healthcare legislation.
Hard to drive demand when a lot of the money is in the hands of those who don't use it.
No you won't. Hiring is driven solely by market demand, not by taxes or healthcare legislation.
Hard to drive demand when a lot of the money is in the hands of those who don't use it.
Total nonsense. Anybody who has ever owned a business knows exactly what kind of drag on the economy Obamacare will be.
What's more, anybody who has ever owned or managed a business knows that corporate taxes are a huge burden for a company. Essentially it means that, at the end of the year, shareholders will have to pony up 33% of their net. Mind you, organizations like Exxon and Apple have battalions of tax attorneys to shelter income, but the average business, even those with a few hundred employees, simply do not have that resource. So at the end of every tax year, companies have to look at their profits and write off 1/3 of that amount, money that could go to hiring employees or buying equipment. Mind you, those same smaller businesses are the ones that account for most of the hiring in this country.
Actually, barring another catastrophic government meltdown, the private sector looks really good at the moment. Balance sheets have pretty much been cleaned up, companies are sitting on large piles of cash, sales are up, productivity is up, and exports are way up. The only thing that companies are waiting on now are the November elections and/or the fate of Obamacare in the Supreme Court. If the GOP wins or the Supremes void the healthcare legislation, then you'll see a hiring spree.
Personally, if you want to see a real pickup in employment, which in turn yields an increase in salaries, then lower the corporate income tax down to a level commensurate with the rest of the industrialized world. Right now, corporate overseas subsidiaries are sitting on untold billions in profits that they can't really bring back to our shores because corporate taxes in the United States are far higher.
I agree with this poster. Companies have really buckled in knowing that this is an anti-business administration, they are not hiring like they would if we were in a business friendly administration. If obama is re-elected it will be more of the same and some businesses will not survive a second term (more people losing jobs).
If the GOP wins, companies will start investing again, which also means hiring, which then means more demand which will cause employers to have to increase salaries. Off shore Corporations will start coming back and hiring. The stock market will go higher, dividends will go up. People will start spending. after this takes hold the next thing you will have to worry about is inflation and a rise in interest rates.
I read that Japan is dropping its corporate tax rate which will make our corporate tax rate higher than theirs. What would you expect companies to do? Move to Japan of course.
Its a simplified explanation and which will take years to dig out of all the spending just like if you have alot of debt, will take years to dig out of. If you can't pay your bills the worse thing to do is increase your debt even more.
The Goverment sees Americans as their piggy bank. They know that businesses provide money to the economy. So they kept dipping into the middle class piggy bank instead but now that the middle class is tapped out, they cant go after the poor so they are going after businesses as a piggy bank, the very hand that feeds the economy, the very sector that provides jobs to you so you can feed your family, pay your bills etc...
To do this, knowing its natural for us to dream of being rich and as times got harder for us and starting to develop a resentment for the rich, they are now fueling that resentment knowing that middle America does not understand how economies prosper. Knowing that all the poor want is more and will buy into anything if they belive they will get more.
Obviously not everyone can own a business and if you have a gripe against big business or the rich it is what it is and complaining will get you nowhere. In November, essentially you have a choice, who do you want to depend on?
The Goverment
Your paycheck will be what big goverment decides is an acceptable paycheck and you will not have the ability to increase how much you are paid. Only the goverment can decide when to give you a raise. Ask a welfare recipiant how thats going. Notice that any one collecting welfare will never be rich and there will be a lot more people the gov will have to support. Try negotiating your pay rate with big Goverment.
Businesses
Or would you rather depend on a paycheck from the very companies that the Goverment wants you to loath. If you choose companies you chose a path where you have the ability, through your efforts to increase your standard of living even the possibility to become rich too.
Last edited by eRayP; 05-10-2012 at 09:13 AM..
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