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The Nasdaq doesn't reflect the broader market as much as the S&P. If you invested in the S&P I think the difference would of been a lot less or breaking even.
Also, I think people are giving a general synopsis on the market based on historical trends and not from Peak to Drop. If you keep the Fund for another 10-15 years... im sure most people would agree that that fund would be worth more than the initial 10k in 1999.
-chuck22b
Not everyone has 20 years to wait for the stock market to come back. Just because it came back in the past in 20 years does not mean it will again. We are living in unique times.
I am thinking of converting my dollars to copper and burying it in the backyard.
While some might argue that gold is overbought (I disagree), silver might be the true inflation sensitive precious metal. Gold is more ubiquitous, but supposedly there's very little silver in the earth's crust to mine, according to some geologists.
In the 70's, an ounce of gold was worth the Dow. I expect the same to happen at the end of this bubble. Dow 7000/Gold 7000? Dow 10000/Gold 10000? Who knows?
I find this fascinating. Anyone else have thoughts on it?
I'm no investment guru but it seems like the world economy is different in relation to the US economy now than it was in the 70s. I expect the Dow to go down but I doubt if the Dow will equal an ounce of gold.
I agree with others who have posted that gold could have a bubble of its own. After all the price of gold is determined by demand for it. Right now demand is high and rising because gold is viewed (rightly so) as more stable than the USD. However, there is nothing to say that gold will necessarily remain stable.
Last edited by Niners fan; 03-17-2008 at 04:55 PM..
While some might argue that gold is overbought (I disagree), silver might be the true inflation sensitive precious metal. Gold is more ubiquitous, but supposedly there's very little silver in the earth's crust to mine, according to some geologists.
I don't think gold/silver/oil values are pegged with supply. We already have a surplus of oil... but it still keeps going up. It's more pegged with speculation/belief that the dollar will keep on going down... and that gold/oil/silver/etc is a better store of value.
I'm guessing the common joe at the pawn shop isn't going to take my wife's gold jewelry and give me 1k+ an ounce. Nor have I seen jewelry rise exceptionally in price... check out amazon - looks like there's a discount!
So, basically it's a "perceived" value of gold in trade (not physical). And once something is unlinked from the physical characteristics, fundamentals (ie, price of homes vs. income, price of oil/gold vs. supply) it has the increasing risk of being in a speculative bubble.
At least if I buy properties now (another store of value - fixed asset)... I can rent it out/live in it. If I buy gold, I just watch it and sell it for cash (at some point - not like u can do anything else with it)... which by then (the cash) will also be thinner.
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by politically_correct
To those who think the Stock Market always comes back I have a story for you. I invested $10,000 in a Mutual Fund that basically matched the NADAQ in 1999. Now 9 years later it is worth about $5000.00.
It will come back eventually. It might take 20 years for you to regain your investment but you will- eventually.
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoCUBS1
Me too. I bought 8 rental properties 10 years ago and sat on them while the market inflated and busted. Now I'm back to buying again. And now, with all the foreclosures, our Chicago rental market is fantastic. I also set up a Canadian acct. 10 years ago (just for convenience because we spent summers there). I never thought the Canadian foreign exchange would become such a great investment. Being diversified works out.
I would not be too keen on real estate right now unless it is property that is not in a hyper inflated market. Eventually it will come back but the days of 20% a year appreciation are over with. Those days were not in the world of reality anyway. Any idiot could have seen that you cannot have something going up 20% or more a year when the people buying it have wages that are going up at 3% a year. You can do smoke and mirror loans only for awhile.
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
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I am not worried about a recession or a depression. Neither is likely to happen in the near future. What I am worried most about is the hyper inflation I see coming- largely due to the Fed turning on the printing presses. I am trying to figure out the best way to protect against it so I can keep my 401K safe.
I would not be too keen on real estate right now unless it is property that is not in a hyper inflated market. Eventually it will come back but the days of 20% a year appreciation are over with. Those days were not in the world of reality anyway. Any idiot could have seen that you cannot have something going up 20% or more a year when the people buying it have wages that are going up at 3% a year. You can do smoke and mirror loans only for awhile.
You realize you're talking to a couple of people here who haven't made bad real estate decisions? We see the opportunity, and it doesn't appear that either of us makes snap decisions about buying then selling quickly. Both of us own properties already, and haven't been greedy about the acquisition thereof.
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