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Right now the profit from the tax reform is ok. However, the child tax credit ends at age 17 and the personal exemptions went to the end of undergraduate study... so after your kids are 17 you lose on them.
Feel that it's okay to be increasing debt/GDP during an expanding economy.
There's not some magic number where we fall off a cliff. Today we are at a little over 100%, as reported by the Federal Reserve. If it gets high enough the interest cost will smother us. You may not care if you expect to be dead before that happens, of course.
it seems strange to me that taxes cant go down but spending can keep going up. the most insane to me is the military spending $700 billion to defend a country that should cost less than most other countries on earth. im not going to be on board with taking the hit on paying taxes when the government makes no effort whatsoever to cut spending.
i really dont care if the accumulated debt of the US government is repaid. best thing to do is jump ship when the federal government turns around and expects us to pay for their bs.
The calculators I have seen are estimating a $4500 tax cut for my family.
Also, my employer announced today that everyone is getting an additional $1000 bonus due to the tax plan. So, a huge corporation actually is letting some of it trickle down. Imagine that.
Federal debt increase also worries me.
On top of this,. Donny wants to build infrastructure but who is gonna pay for this? China already a high percentage of US Bonds.
So for new debt, I wouldn't be interested in buying us Treasury long bonds,, unless risk premium increased. Increased US Treasury bonds means higher interest to Consumers who use extensive credit, ie lower income.
I will buy debt to get up with inflation while lower income will sell debt to stay with inflation. And I won't buy debt until I see a peaking of inflation.
We could see a big collapse.
I've heard several money people on CNBC say OUR DEBT is the reason the 30-year Treasury rate isn't much higher than the 10-year. As you've noted, our debt is seeing diminished value as an investment worldwide, although we are still the best house in a bad neighborhood.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainNJ
i really dont care if the accumulated debt of the US government is repaid. best thing to do is jump ship when the federal government turns around and expects us to pay for their bs.
You've said this a couple of times, now, on varous threads. Parroting Donald Trump who said before he was nominated that he didn't think US debt needed to be paid back - it could be "restructured" - you know, like in the four bankruptcies he's had to the point no US lender will do business with him anymore.
In other words, US. will steal its money from those who are stupid enough to lend to us.
So, I'd be interested in your view of the consequences to our economy and its citizens, and the financial markets here and abroad when the US defaults on its debt.
You've said this a couple of times, now, on varous threads. Parroting Donald Trump who said before the election even before he was nominated that he didn't think US debt needed to be paid back - it could be "restructured" - you know, like in the four bankruptcies he's had to the point no US lender will do business with him anymore. In other words, US. will steal its money from those who are stupid enough to lend to us.
So, I'd be interested in your view of the consequences to the financial markets here and abroad when the US defaults on its debt.
ive had this view well before trump took the stage. i dont listen to anything he says or any other politician except ron paul who will always be my president if i were to ever want a president which i dont.
the answer to your question could be super long and detailed and address the various stakeholders and how it will impact them. one big problem i see is that a major holder of treasuries is the social security fund because the US government stole people's money and wanted to spend it. so they "invested" it in treasuries thus giving the federal government the power to spend social security money however they wish.
but i only feel like giving the short answer now. i would expect a sharp hit to financial markets. then i would expect a bounce back and long term improvement of financial positions of the people and government.
Intergovernmental Holdings
Social Security (Social Security Trust Fund and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund) - $2.801 trillion
Office of Personnel Management Retirement - $888 billion
Military Retirement Fund - $670 billion
Medicare (Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund) - $294 billion
All other retirement funds - $304 billion
Cash on hand to fund federal government operations - $580 billion.
Debt Held by the Public. The public holds the rest of the national debt ($14.7 trillion). Foreign governments and investors hold nearly half of it. One-fourth is held by other governmental entities. These include the Federal Reserve, as well as state and local governments. Fifteen percent is held by mutual funds, private pension funds and holders of savings bonds and Treasury notes. The remaining 10 percent is owned by businesses, like banks and insurance companies. It's also held by an assortment of trusts, companies, and investors.
Here's the breakdown of holders of the public debt as of December 2016:
Foreign - $6.004 trillion
Federal Reserve - $2.465 trillion
Mutual funds - $1.671 trillion
State and local government, including their pension funds - $905 billion
Private pension funds - $553 billion
Banks - $663 billion
Insurance companies - $347 billion
U.S. savings bonds - $166 billion
Other (individuals, government-sponsored enterprises, brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts and estates, corporate and non-corporate businesses, and other investors) - $1.662 trillion.
one big problem i see is that a major holder of treasuries is the social security fund because the US government stole people's money and wanted to spend it. so they "invested" it in treasuries thus giving the federal government the power to spend social security money however they wish.
I absolutely agree with you on SS. The US govt never saw a pool of money it didn't like. And that theft began way back in the 60's.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainNJ
i would expect a sharp hit to financial markets. then i would expect a bounce back and long term improvement of financial positions of the people and government.
So, meanwhile rampant inflation, wheelbarrows of money to buy a loaf of bread - worst case scenario?
So, meanwhile rampant inflation, wheelbarrows of money to buy a loaf of bread - worst case scenario?
wouldnt wiping out all that money cause deflation? i dont know. its kind of exciting but i am not sure it is worth going too far into this exercise. i feel like we will have no choice but to be in this place but not for a few years.
maybe consider puerto rico and where it would be if it didnt have to pay back any of its creditors. then you have to think about what happens to the creditors if they didnt get paid back. however, this is of course on a much larger scale but also very spread out. im sure a selective default would help and you could also negotiate haircuts or whatever.
i guess you could also take out some of it with a sneaky inflation tax on the american people by just printing the money and paying off the debt. not my preference but maybe good for a portion.
Here's the breakdown of holders of the public debt as of December 2016:
Foreign - $6.004 trillion
Poor them. They're gonna be left holding the bag.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainNJ
you have to think about what happens to the creditors if they didnt get paid back. however, this is of course on a much larger scale but also very spread out. im sure a selective default would help and you could also negotiate haircuts or whatever.
Ha - and we've come full circle. Haircut/restructuring, indeed.
Who knew Donald Trump was a visionary.
Much as I hate that guy, he's right (who understands debt better than Trump) - unless Congress gets its act together. Which, of course, they won't - and which, of course, the Congress and its rich friends recognize and will continue to loot the Treasury (or, rather, max out its credit) until they can't.
I absolutely agree with you on SS. The US govt never saw a pool of money it didn't like. And that theft began way back in the 60's.
By which party?
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