Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe107
Most research shows that market timing does MUCH more harm than good for individual investors
Dalbar study shows average equity-fund investor realized an annualized return of 5.32%, compared to 16.29% for the S&P 500 Index (mid 80s to 2000)
Why such a lower return for the investor? Trying to time/move things around
Dalbar - The Measurement of Success |
I'll agree that market timming in general is not a very good idea, however, if you go back and check all of Bob Brinkers moves you will find that his timming was synergistic to what the plain vanilla buy and hold market returns were.
It really depends at what point and time you do the check.
All I can say is his long term performance is reflected in my success.
Personally I would not put my investment money in the US market in the form of a Managed Mutual Fund even though Brinker recommends some. I see no reason to pay for the questionable management.
It would go into the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund or their Total Stock Market Fund with no commisions and extremely low expenses or the equivalent ETF.
I realize I am not the averge investor so some of what I say does not apply just to Brinker.
When I look at the 16.29% annualized return for the S&P from 1980 to 2000 it makes me wonder what that will look like during the next 15 years.
If I had sat around on my haunches for the last 15 years in a buy and hold mode I would have increased my portfolio by approx. 244% according to Dalbar.
Because I am more pro-active and actively manage my own accts. I have increased my wealth by approx. 750% in that same time period.
Tech stock boom....Gold....Platium...uranium ...and many others.
Thats also with 50% of my money in fixed income investments for the last several years. Ginny Mae Fund and Laddered CD's
I love to salmon fish and I worked very hard (over 50 years) at perfecting my technique on how and when to catch them. I would be on the water before daylite because I knew that thats when the fish bite the best for the most part.
A large part of the fishermen were just launching their boats as I was pulling out with my limit. Others were just arriving.
Thats how it is in the markets...you have to be there when things are happening and that window can be 5 minutes or less sometimes.
I have calculated my hourly wages just for fun at moments when I hit a big score and wondered how a high school graduate could possibly be making "far more" than the President of the United States at that moment.
Ain't this a Great Country.......
Silverfox
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Personal finance
