What do you think Philly will be like in another 10 years? (Philadelphia: middle-class, renters)

[frankgn87]

Originally Posted by jtom605

I just hope the Lower Northeast doesn't turn into a complete ghetto, like many people are projecting and have been projecting for years. Fortunately, I live in Rhawnhurst, which is still fairly nice when compared to places like Oxford Cirlce and Lawncrest. I also don't think the Far Northeast is completely immune. Buselton already has quite a few shady apartment complexes and several areas of the Far Northeast (like Morrell Park) contain a lot of rowhomes that are not located near quick transportation to Center City.

It does not take long.. I remember when OC and LC was a very nice, clean, safe areas no more then 20 years ago. Now look at it.. It happened so darn quick. It blew my mind..

[Pine to Vine]

Originally Posted by jtom605

I just hope the Lower Northeast doesn't turn into a complete ghetto, like many people are projecting and have been projecting for years. Fortunately, I live in Rhawnhurst, which is still fairly nice when compared to places like Oxford Cirlce and Lawncrest. I also don't think the Far Northeast is completely immune. Buselton already has quite a few shady apartment complexes and several areas of the Far Northeast (like Morrell Park) contain a lot of rowhomes that are not located near quick transportation to Center City.

Cities are dynamic, so a short term decline of the lower NE would not be out of the question. In 10 years, I suspect the gentrification of GradHo will continue to expand into Point Breeze and it would seem inevitable that the gentrification of UCity will continue to expand deeper onto West Philly. Lower income folks need to go somewhere, so the Lower NE could easily be such a place. In decades after that, however, gentrification could easily expand northward from Fishtown through Kensington further north.

[Duderino]

I think everyone's predictions are very reasonable and realistic. Clearly gentrification/revitalization will continue on its path pushing further outward from the current frontiers of those in/adjacent to Center City, University City, the area of Temple in North Philadelphia, and neighborhoods like Germantown and East Mt. Airy in Northwest Philadelphia. I also see renewed interest in lesser-highlighted areas on the city fringe that have a solid older housing stock but are still in Philly, like Fox Chase, Overbrook, and Oak Lane as some people opt against very dense urban living but still want proximity to the city.

Another trend that is worth noting that I do not think has been mentioned yet is anticipated growth trends along Philly's public transportation corridors. With the renewed focus on public transportation and transit-oriented development, I would expect more and more development/businesses to locate on Philadelphia's areas of transportation. This would include capitalizing on the many underutilized parcels up and down Broad Street, Market and Frankford Streets for the subway lines and Girard, Baltimore and Lancaster for trolley lines.

Also, the Delaware River waterfront should become more and more of a desirable area; becoming re-integrated into the urban fabric of Philly, making it a really cool destination for the city. Hopefully the re-build of I-95 comes into better focus in the next decade as a plan that can catalyze this specific trend.

[alphamale]

Everyone knows that neighborhoods improve when ghetto people are forced out.

As certain areas become gentrified, others become uninhabitable to working class people.

NE Philly is now becoming the ghetto, due to an influx of renters and section 8.

[jtom605]

Originally Posted by jm02

Cities are dynamic, so a short term decline of the lower NE would not be out of the question. In 10 years, I suspect the gentrification of GradHo will continue to expand into Point Breeze and it would seem inevitable that the gentrification of UCity will continue to expand deeper onto West Philly. Lower income folks need to go somewhere, so the Lower NE could easily be such a place. In decades after that, however, gentrification could easily expand northward from Fishtown through Kensington further north.

I'm not sure that the Lower NE will decline and gentrify in 10 years. Maybe 50 years, possibly even longer. First of all, West Kensington is still a dump, so it may take more than ten years for that area to gentrify. If the gentrification process continues to move north along the el, the next place would be Frankford, which is in the Lower NE. However, I'm not sure people would want to move to Oxford Circle/Lawncrest or any other place in the NE because the area does not have quick transportation to Center City.

[drive carephilly]

I see Philly adding about 60,000 people over the next 10 years. I don't expect dramatic changes like in the past decade - just slow, predictable and incremental changes.

I agree with the further decline of the Lower Northeast but I also think that it's just as likely for Lower Bucks and for Delaware County along the R2.

I do think that some people have the cause and effect backwards for declining neighborhoods. Poor people only start to move into those neighborhoods when they become affordable. In the case of the lower northeast you had a large blue collar population who didn't keep their houses modern and up-to-date, who fought the idea of a Roosevelt Blvd subway, and whose kids had little to no interest in staying in those neighborhoods and opting instead for the suburbs or for some place closer to Center City. The only thing that's going to make that area attractive to new investors is better/quicker transit to Center City.

[OptimusPrime69]

I dont think any majorly dramatic changes are in store to be honest....
I think certain neighborhoods will continue to improve, etc. Yet nothing drastic.

I think abck to 2002 and wonder how has philly changed since then?? ehhh a couple new things like the comcast center happened, cira center, etc.
OK stuff i guess

[Pine to Vine]

Originally Posted by jtom605

I'm not sure that the Lower NE will decline and gentrify in 10 years. Maybe 50 years, possibly even longer. First of all, West Kensington is still a dump, so it may take more than ten years for that area to gentrify. If the gentrification process continues to move north along the el, the next place would be Frankford, which is in the Lower NE. However, I'm not sure people would want to move to Oxford Circle/Lawncrest or any other place in the NE because the area does not have quick transportation to Center City.

Please re-read my post. I was suggesting the Lower NE might possibly decline even further over the next 10 years due to relo of folks forced out by gentrification elsewhere. My suggestion of a possible scenario of recovery for that area was several decades out.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by OptimusPrime69

I dont think any majorly dramatic changes are in store to be honest....
I think certain neighborhoods will continue to improve, etc. Yet nothing drastic.

That's the thing, though. Philly tends to not be a "dramatic change" type of city over the course of a couple years, but incremental changes add up significantly over time. It is very plausible that over the course of 10+ years many neighborhoods today may not be recognizable. That's harder to notice in the day-to-day.

[jtom605]

Originally Posted by jm02

Please re-read my post. I was suggesting the Lower NE might possibly decline even further over the next 10 years due to relo of folks forced out by gentrification elsewhere. My suggestion of a possible scenario of recovery for that area was several decades out.

Gotcha.