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Maybe the Kingsessing section of Southwest Philadelphia in the future. It has very close proximity to University City and Grays Ferry. Gentrification could easily spread over to that area.
I'm sorry i dont see Kingsessing improving any soon. I currently live near chester ave. It is reallyyyyy bad
Twenty years clean and one night of weakness took him out. Same thing just happened to my brother's friend after eight years of sobriety ... I'm glad I turn to food, music, a lil mj and a few beers when my mind gets heavy.
BTW, wish we still had writers like Pete Dexter, Chuck Stone and Larry McMullen in this city. Will Bunch and Jeanette Armstrong just do not do it for me. Where are the writers who know the streets and people?
The Inquirer, because it's not much of "paper" anymore and lacks financial assets, can't attract the kind of talent that used to be here.
As someone who is trying to enter the city's real estate game representing the next generation of RE developers, I ask myself this question frequently. This is also why I travel through the city so much, even to the areas that people perceive as "bad".
In my opinion, the following neighborhoods are "next" (I define "next" as neighborhoods that my younger counterparts and I will likely be looking at as we progress as RE developers):
Greater Center City: Chinatown, Callowhill, and parts of Ludlow closest to Broad Street that still have some semblance of urban character.
River Wards: Port Richmond* and Kensington. I'm willing to bet that Somerset will be considered a "safe" El stop within the next 10 years.
West Philly: Belmont, East Parkside, and portions of Mill Creek. 52nd Street and Lancaster Avenue will progress as mixed-use commercial corridors.
North Philly: Francisville*, Brewerytown*, Norris Square, Hartranft, and portions of Swampoodle and Strawberry Mansion.
South Philly: Grays Ferry*
Northwest Philly: Germantown
Northeast Philly: Frankford**
Southwest Philly: small portions of Kingsessing
Individual commercial corridors: Ridge Avenue, 52nd Street, Lancaster Avenue, Susquehanna Avenue, and various sections of North Broad.
Suburban towns/cities: BRISTOL, Norristown, and Wilmington
*=revitalization/signs of revitalization is/are happening/in place, but there are still opportunities to make money.
**=HUGE maybe.
As this decade finishes up, I am expecting swathes of North and West Philly to see the most progress going forward. Both sections have neighborhoods that contain the type of architecture that prospective buyers desire (two and three-story pre-WWII brick rowhomes). Both sections of the city also have major universities, HUGE projects proposed (Schuylkill Yards and the 30th Street Station District for West Philly, and the proposed skyscraper at Broad and Indiana in North Philly), and superior public transportation options. Public transportation is also why I see Germantown becoming a hot neighborhood in the future. In the aggregate, Philly will continue its growth trend due to strong job growth, the continued revitalization of neighborhoods close to Center City, a decrease in crime (although it is slightly higher year-to-date, mirroring national trends), and a more positive national and international image. Once we can fix the wage tax issue and the school district (which is steadily improving), then our population growth will mirror that of our other East Coast peers. This is also when we will see the end of a greater domestic outward migration that has been quietly plaguing the city.
Past 2035 (I'll be 40...yikes!), I can see the signs of revitalization occurring in Nicetown, Hunting Park, more of Strawberry Mansion, Fairhill, Kensington, and Harrowgate if the city continues to add jobs and population. I am also banking on Templetown/Cecil B. Moore becoming more of a full-time neighborhood in the likeness of University City.
PhilliesPhan2013 - Now, which neighborhoods/areas are going to go south? The people being displaced from all the areas you mention have to go somewhere.
As someone who is trying to enter the city's real estate game representing the next generation of RE developers, I ask myself this question frequently. This is also why I travel through the city so much, even to the areas that people perceive as "bad".
In my opinion, the following neighborhoods are "next" (I define "next" as neighborhoods that my younger counterparts and I will likely be looking at as we progress as RE developers):
Greater Center City: Chinatown, Callowhill, and parts of Ludlow closest to Broad Street that still have some semblance of urban character.
River Wards: Port Richmond* and Kensington. I'm willing to bet that Somerset will be considered a "safe" El stop within the next 10 years.
West Philly: Belmont, East Parkside, and portions of Mill Creek. 52nd Street and Lancaster Avenue will progress as mixed-use commercial corridors.
North Philly: Francisville*, Brewerytown*, Norris Square, Hartranft, and portions of Swampoodle and Strawberry Mansion.
South Philly: Grays Ferry*
Northwest Philly: Germantown
Northeast Philly: Frankford**
Southwest Philly: small portions of Kingsessing
Individual commercial corridors: Ridge Avenue, 52nd Street, Lancaster Avenue, Susquehanna Avenue, and various sections of North Broad.
Suburban towns/cities: BRISTOL, Norristown, and Wilmington
*=revitalization/signs of revitalization is/are happening/in place, but there are still opportunities to make money.
**=HUGE maybe.
As this decade finishes up, I am expecting swathes of North and West Philly to see the most progress going forward. Both sections have neighborhoods that contain the type of architecture that prospective buyers desire (two and three-story pre-WWII brick rowhomes). Both sections of the city also have major universities, HUGE projects proposed (Schuylkill Yards and the 30th Street Station District for West Philly, and the proposed skyscraper at Broad and Indiana in North Philly), and superior public transportation options. Public transportation is also why I see Germantown becoming a hot neighborhood in the future. In the aggregate, Philly will continue its growth trend due to strong job growth, the continued revitalization of neighborhoods close to Center City, a decrease in crime (although it is slightly higher year-to-date, mirroring national trends), and a more positive national and international image. Once we can fix the wage tax issue and the school district (which is steadily improving), then our population growth will mirror that of our other East Coast peers. This is also when we will see the end of a greater domestic outward migration that has been quietly plaguing the city.
Past 2035 (I'll be 40...yikes!), I can see the signs of revitalization occurring in Nicetown, Hunting Park, more of Strawberry Mansion, Fairhill, Kensington, and Harrowgate if the city continues to add jobs and population. I am also banking on Templetown/Cecil B. Moore becoming more of a full-time neighborhood in the likeness of University City.
I love the enthusiasm, but you are talking about Philadelphia as if we are already in 2030 and you are looking out another 10-20 years. The city has a ton of problems to deal with, and until many of those issues are addressed, the rebirth of neighborhoods will be very limited, I can think of maybe 2-3 neighborhoods that will see significant improvement over the next decade (in addition to those already improving), but the large swaths of North, West, and South Philly you are pointing out will largely remain unchanged even in 2030. I am not trying to be negative, I am just realistic. There is too much poverty, crappy leadership, crappy schools, lack of public transit, lack of neighborhood amenities, and anemic growth to sustain the revitilization of that many neighborhoods. Lets work on getting the poverty rate below 25% first.
Also Bristol is 100% not going to make a turn around, expecically if Philadelphia continues to improve. Norristown and Coatsville I could see improving due to the walkability and high amount of wealth in the surrounding townships.
And Templetown will never become a University City. You have Penn and Drexel which are monsters, and the medical centers, U Sciences, and now the innovation centers. Temple can only do so much for North Philly.
As this decade finishes up, I am expecting swathes of North and West Philly to see the most progress going forward. Both sections have neighborhoods that contain the type of architecture that prospective buyers desire (two and three-story pre-WWII brick rowhomes). Both sections of the city also have major universities, HUGE projects proposed (Schuylkill Yards and the 30th Street Station District for West Philly, and the proposed skyscraper at Broad and Indiana in North Philly), and superior public transportation options. Public transportation is also why I see Germantown becoming a hot neighborhood in the future. In the aggregate, Philly will continue its growth trend due to strong job growth, the continued revitalization of neighborhoods close to Center City, a decrease in crime (although it is slightly higher year-to-date, mirroring national trends), and a more positive national and international image. Once we can fix the wage tax issue and the school district (which is steadily improving), then our population growth will mirror that of our other East Coast peers. This is also when we will see the end of a greater domestic outward migration that has been quietly plaguing the city.
Past 2035 (I'll be 40...yikes!), I can see the signs of revitalization occurring in Nicetown, Hunting Park, more of Strawberry Mansion, Fairhill, Kensington, and Harrowgate if the city continues to add jobs and population. I am also banking on Templetown/Cecil B. Moore becoming more of a full-time neighborhood in the likeness of University City.
You have a lot of refreshing enthusiasm but you leave out some of the things I envision may happen in your lifetime: the real, unstoppable effect of massive automation which will destroy thousands of jobs, making adjustments to the changing climate, the social and political climate that has pretty much eliminated bipartisanship which, in turn, may become so severe that states will actually be able to leave the union. And, no, if that happens there will not be another civil war over it.
And Templetown will never become a University City. You have Penn and Drexel which are monsters, and the medical centers, U Sciences, and now the innovation centers. Temple can only do so much for North Philly.
Temple also does not have the kind wealthy alum base, that can be tapped for cash, the way Penn does.
I love the enthusiasm, but you are talking about Philadelphia as if we are already in 2030 and you are looking out another 10-20 years. The city has a ton of problems to deal with, and until many of those issues are addressed, the rebirth of neighborhoods will be very limited, I can think of maybe 2-3 neighborhoods that will see significant improvement over the next decade (in addition to those already improving), but the large swaths of North, West, and South Philly you are pointing out will largely remain unchanged even in 2030. I am not trying to be negative, I am just realistic. There is too much poverty, crappy leadership, crappy schools, lack of public transit, lack of neighborhood amenities, and anemic growth to sustain the revitilization of that many neighborhoods. Lets work on getting the poverty rate below 25% first.
Also Bristol is 100% not going to make a turn around, expecically if Philadelphia continues to improve. Norristown and Coatsville I could see improving due to the walkability and high amount of wealth in the surrounding townships.
And Templetown will never become a University City. You have Penn and Drexel which are monsters, and the medical centers, U Sciences, and now the innovation centers. Temple can only do so much for North Philly.
Maybe I should elaborate a little further on my predictions, as I don't always type my thoughts out correctly at 3 AM.
Next (2017-2027): Callowhill, Belmont, Port Richmond, Norris Square, Grays Ferry Further out (2028-2037): Hartranft, East Parkside, Germantown, and small parts of Kensington, Mill Creek, Strawberry Mansion, and Kingsessing (along Woodland Avenue up to about 50th Street, mainly due to demand from UScienes students). Long-term (beyond 2038): Nicetown
The neighborhoods within the "next" category represent neighborhoods that will likely begin filling in due to adjacent neighborhoods undergoing revitalization. Something that is learned in real estate development is "always keep your eye out for the next neighborhood, which is what I predict will happen to some extent with the "next" neighborhoods.
The "further out" neighborhoods will develop as the "next" neighborhoods come around, as well as being placed under the assumption that certain proposed projects will occur as planned. The North Station District will help Hartranft and other surrounding North Philly neighborhoods, while the combination of Schuylkill Yards, uCity Square, and the 30th Street Station District Plan will push development further into West Philly. I wouldn't be surprised if a major project gets proposed around the vicinity of Wayne Junction Station, propping Germantown up. Germantown is weird, however, since part of it is rather stately.
In the long-term, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nicetown come back due to a revitalized Germantown, as well as the development coming to Broad and Erie. Nicetown has excellent Regional Rail and Broad Street Line access (with SEPTA also noting the restoration of the 23 as a possible long-term capital expenditure). Frankford could also fall into this category; however, I will not make any statements due to the confusing nature of the Northeast. Depending on who you talk to, it is either a magnet for a diverse set of immigrants, a stable section of the city, or a section in decline (mostly referring to the Lower NE).
Of course, many factors lie in the way of revitalization of larger swathes of the city. Schools (which are improving), jobs, and attacking poverty (especially deep poverty) will be concerns going forward. The fluctuations that financial markets will experience between now and the future are also unpredictable and will certainly impact any vision for a future Philly. In the intermediate term, let's focus on getting Harrisburg to amend the Conformity Clause of the PA Constitution, thus allowing the city to shift more of a tax burden on commercial properties in exchange for a reduced wage tax. I would also like to see the wage tax rates flipped so that those who do not live in the city pay the higher rate, but I digress.
Finally, I don't think that Templetown will be a replica of University City anytime soon; instead, all I am hoping for is a less transient population. I am hoping that more faculty associated with Temple will decide to live in Templetown. Maybe Temple could start a successful school to the likeness of Penn Alexander? Also, I would like to see denser, more continuous development up and down North Broad between Girard and Susquehanna. Finally, I believe that Temple will eventually have its own incubation space. We are classified as a high-activity research university, as well as continuously climbing the national rankings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kyb01
You have a lot of refreshing enthusiasm but you leave out some of the things I envision may happen in your lifetime: the real, unstoppable effect of massive automation which will destroy thousands of jobs, making adjustments to the changing climate, the social and political climate that has pretty much eliminated bipartisanship which, in turn, may become so severe that states will actually be able to leave the union. And, no, if that happens there will not be another civil war over it.
Those factors definitely have the potential to affect financial markets, as well as the availability of capital going forward. A changing climate, however, may encourage the government to move people to from exurbs to cities in the future. Our current suburban and exurban development models are TOTALLY unsustainable for the future. I'll also add that I believe our city government will become better within the next few election cycles. A lot of young people--especially those who give a damn about our great city--have become politically energized as of late. I have been attending politically-based gatherings targeted towards young people here in the city, and MANY of us are ready and willing to help make this city a better place.
PhilliesPhan2013 - Now, which neighborhoods/areas are going to go south? The people being displaced from all the areas you mention have to go somewhere.
I believe that parts of Delco and Lower Bucks will decline going forward. Within the city, I think that some will head to the Southwest and Northeast. NJ and DE, as well as other small and medium-sized PA cities may very well receive some of our displaced residents. We may see what Chicago has witnessed after bulldozing their highrise projects: those with Section 8 vouchers ended up choosing to utilize their vouchers in the counties that surround Chicago.
I feel sorry for the residents who have lived and worked in the city for a long time, even though there are relief programs out there. As for those who cause quality-of-life issues for the rest of the city: I could care less where they end up, as long as they leave.
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