Phoenix Real Estate Report by Mike Orr (for sale, real estate market)

[Captain Bill]

Mike Orr, of the Cromford Report, has released his first full Phoenix area real estate report as director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business.

When I saw this 15 page report on the Cromford Report web site this morning I was thinking what a comprehensive report this is, and how would I be able to share this information with the C-D forum.

Because the report is for the school, I decided to Google to see if ASU has published it, and was pleasantly surprised to find it online and available for everyone to download.

• Click here for the brief article -"Prices moving up, foreclosures going down in Phoenix area housing market"
• Click here to download Mike Orr's 15 page report

Here's a snippet from the article:

• Single-family home prices are moving higher.
• Fewer foreclosures are coming into the pipeline.
• The glut of underpriced homes on the market has ended, with a more balanced market now for houses under $300,000.

Mike's report may be a monthly report now and C-D readers will be able to get that report as soon as it comes out each month.

It should show up on this site: More Resources at WP Carey School of Business

Here is a 28 minute podcast interview with Mike Orr where he discusses the market and his reports for ASU. It should be interesting to all who are interested in the Phoenix real estate market. The transcription is also there for those who prefer to read it.

Here's a snippet from that interview:

Michael Orr: On average, we’re down about 58 percent from the peak overall. Any relief from that is very welcome. We had a period during the first half of last year when prices were pretty flat. Then we had another dip down just as the debt crisis which kind of froze government for a while and caused the stock market to have some turmoil, and that really took a lot of wind out of the luxury market which has not really come back.

There is still not a lot of action in there, amongst the expensive homes; but ever since September, the bottom end of the market has been really taking off -- a lot of demand and the supply, as I said, drying up. Prices for homes at that end, below about 300,000 square foot is improving at a significant rate now. It looks like that’s going to continue.

We’re actually seeing a reduction in supply from the beginning of the year. Normally at this time of year, we see an increase in supply because people try to list their homes during the spring. So they have fewer homes for sale now than at the beginning of January is quite unusual.

knowWPCarey: Right.

Michael Orr: It’s not true of the more expensive homes, but below 300,000 square feet we’ve actually got fewer homes available. That means, I think, we’re going to see some upward pricing pressure during the spring which is when most buyers are out. Now whether that carries on through the summer, we’ll have to wait and see.

[sh9730]

Capn,

300,000 sq ft? I think either he misspoke or you need to edit! LOL

[bgray9]

Good info. Thanks!

[ReadyFreddy]

Originally Posted by sh9730

Capn,

300,000 sq ft? I think either he misspoke or you need to edit! LOL

It's transcribed wrong. He's saying that homes for sale below $300,000, the P/SF is increasing and the inventory is low.

[AZgarden]

I think he is saying homes for sale below 3000 sq ft.

[ReadyFreddy]

At 24:35, he's talking about the improvement in the lower (priced) end of the market since Sept. He said, "Prices at that end, below about 300,000, price per square foot is improving at a significant rate now." Then at 25:00, he's talking about supply available at the market segments and says, "It's not true of the more expensive homes but below 300,000 there are fewer homes available."

[sh9730]

I was just making a little joke comment....I got the jist of what Mr. Orr (and CAPN BILL) was pointing out...

[ReadyFreddy]

I had to listen to get it clarified because 300,000 (or 3000) SF didn't make any sense to me. The ASU transcriber did it wrong.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by sh9730

Capn,

300,000 sq ft? I think either he misspoke or you need to edit! LOL

I copied and pasted from the transcript. The person who transcribed the podcast wrote square feet instead of $300,000

[Captain Bill]

Below is a breakdown of markets in various price ranges, with information from the Cromford Report.

It shows which markets are balanced, favor buyers, or favors sellers.

Markets weighted in favor of Sellers:

• • Below $100,000:
    • supply is down 63% from last year with REOs down 86%
    • $/SF sales pricing is up 10.7% from last year and up 2.7% in the last month
  • Between $100,000 and $200,000
    • supply is down 44% from last year with REOs down 72%
    • pending listings 7% below last year, constrained by lack of supply
    • monthly sales rate is 1% above last year
    • $/SF sales pricing is up 4.1% from last year and up 2.3% in the last quarter
  • Between $200,000 and $400,000
    • supply is down 25% from last year with REOs down 60%
    • monthly sales rate is 7% above last year
    • $/SF sales pricing is up 2.3% from last year, but flat over the last quarter

Markets that are in Balance

• • Between $400,000 and $800,000
    • supply is down 14% from last year with REOs down 46%
    • pending listings 3% above last year
    • monthly sales rate is 8% below last year
    • $/SF sales pricing is up 5.3% from last year and 3.4% in the last month
    • sales pricing is surprisingly strong, and at its highest since June 2009

Market favoring Buyers:

• • Above $800,000
    • supply is down 17% from last year with REOs down 42%, but supply is up 18% since August 2011
    • monthly sales rate is 21% below last year
    • $/SF sales pricing is down 8.4% from last year

This is still a rather general overview of the market. Within each of the price ranges and prices in between, the results may still be varied, especially within certain cities, zip codes and communities and home types.