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Obviously that is another one of my posts that azriverfan has so diligently saved.
However, what he is attempting to show is that I was offering "advice", and trying to create a "sense of urgency". That is not the case.
I simply posted my opinion at the time. I did not believe prices would continue to fall much further.
Notice that I said: "How much farther are sellers willing to go? I don't believe they are willing to go much farther".
And I was correct in that statement. Many, many, sellers were not willing to go further in their price reductions. They knew that eventually the market would turn around. Those who did not need to sell took their homes off the market and have waited.
During this time of the year we normally see more new listings come on the market, but they are coming on very slowly, and I believe (another of my personal opinions, which I am entitled to ) that it's because they are waiting for the market to improve further.
I have advised several people who were interested in listing their homes in the $400-$500k range last quarter, to wait until spring of this year. We just put one of them on the market last week, and we'll put another on in March.
On the forum, I offer factual information from the MLS, the Cromford Report, and my personal field experience and knowledge; and some personal opinions.
None of my posts are meant to attempt to create an urgency. And as I've said before, because I do not know their personal financial situation, nor their needs I don't offer advice on the forum. I only offer advice to my clients, after assessing their total situation.
And if someone were to take something you post as pushing urgency then that'd be on them and their interpretation of what you wrote.
I've read most of what you've posted and never taken away the idea of "buy now" from any of 'em.
I get the feeling there are not many regular readers here. There certainly is a smallish group of regular contributors. I can't imagine any incentive to try to stir those few people into buying or selling their homes.
...Well, NOTS is the best statistic to see what might be forthcoming in the way of future bank owned properties, but there are figures available that track how many "30 day lates", and "60 day lates" etc are out there for mortgages, and those have been going down also. (I tried to search quickly to provide a link but too many choices in the search results - but I have CNBC on in the background every day and they report on those figures on a pretty regular basis).
But even just using NOTS, the trend of those numbers (with a few monthly exceptions) have been going DOWN. You seem to be saying we are all of the sudden going to see a large spike in these numbers because there are many people not paying mortgage that will then be foreclosed upon. I just dont see the figures reacting in fits and spurts like that.....
But we ll see....
You can check out Lender Processing Servicing that produces Mortage Monitor Reports.
Here are a few stats from their recent report that the Cromford Report remarked on:
January, Arizona had 10.1% of its primary home loans in some form of delinquency or foreclosure. This is 2 percentage points lower than the national average of 12.1% and places Arizona in 30th place for overall delinquency.
Arizona was in 4th position in August 2009 when we had 14.9% of loans delinquent, with only FL, NV and MS above us.
3% of loans were in foreclosure in Arizona in January.
The national average was 4.2%. We were in 25th place, having dropped
from 4th place in August 2009.
For loans that are delinquent but not yet in foreclosure, we were showing 7.1%, down from a peak of 12.4% in February 2010. We are now 30th in the nation, having dropped from 6th place in August 2009.
Arizona remains the state with the greatest percentage improvement in delinquency rates over the last 2 years.
Normal levels of delinquency would be 5% with 4.5% late but not in
foreclosure and 0.5% in foreclosure.
I get the feeling there are not many regular readers here. There certainly is a smallish group of regular contributors. I can't imagine any incentive to try to stir those few people into buying or selling their homes.
I don't believe it's possible for someone to sway anyone into buying a home. People buy homes based on their needs at the time. It doesn't matter if it's an down or up market, the decision is based solely on their personal needs.
Sometimes buying in a down market, especially when leaving an area in a more expensive market in the north, or California, that is being hit hard, as some of my relocating clients were doing, and buying a larger cheaper home in Phoenix, makes good financial sense.
Had some of my clients who bought during the past few years after selling their homes up north, and buying here while there was plenty of selection, delayed their relocation, then they would have probably been in a worse situation. Their property in the other state would have declined more, and selling now would net them less money. Today they may not be able to buy in the price range they could before, and they would not have the selection today that they had then.
I believe it is more possible for someone to sway others away from buying. That is obvious by would-be buyers holding off due to the negative sentiment that's current in the national media.
The other factor, of course, is greed. When prices are going up, people are motivated by greed to buy. This is because they see in the national media how prices are increasing quickly and they decide to rush in to keep from getting left out. It's the national media that can cause that frenzy; not any one poster on a forum.
I would like to think that I have the persuasive powers and ability to motivate people to rush out and buy through me; but I know I don't have those powers. Moderator cut: snip
Last edited by Kimballette; 03-07-2012 at 10:03 AM..
Reason: Discuss the topic and not each other, please.
You can check out Lender Processing Servicing that produces Mortage Monitor Reports.
Here are a few stats from their recent report that the Cromford Report remarked on:
January, Arizona had 10.1% of its primary home loans in some form of delinquency or foreclosure. This is 2 percentage points lower than the national average of 12.1% and places Arizona in 30th place for overall delinquency.
Arizona was in 4th position in August 2009 when we had 14.9% of loans delinquent, with only FL, NV and MS above us.
3% of loans were in foreclosure in Arizona in January.
The national average was 4.2%. We were in 25th place, having dropped
from 4th place in August 2009.
For loans that are delinquent but not yet in foreclosure, we were showing 7.1%, down from a peak of 12.4% in February 2010. We are now 30th in the nation, having dropped from 6th place in August 2009.
Arizona remains the state with the greatest percentage improvement in delinquency rates over the last 2 years.
Normal levels of delinquency would be 5% with 4.5% late but not in
foreclosure and 0.5% in foreclosure.
Those are amazing stats. It shows that while we were hit really hard by the RE crisis, we are also on the forefront on leaving the misery behind and healing our state RE and general economy. This says a lot about the spirit in our state IMO. This is something to boast about our Arizona finally. Here we go!!!
I believe it appropriate and in keeping with the thread that I post another post where I actually made a prediction in 2009.
This post is really to show what I did say about the market at the time, and a prediction that I actually made in 2009. It seems that I was about one year off in my prediction.
The Cromford Report called the bottom in April 2009, a year before my prediction of a bottom by the end of 2010. Then the price fluctuated up during the first time tax credit in 2010, and then back down, and went lower than the 2009 bottom (but not in all price ranges).
Now it appears that the new bottom was in August 2011, about 8 months after my predicted bottom.
In stock market technical analysis they would call that a "W".
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by azriverfan. No offense Captain Bill but you are a Realtor. A realtor obviously doesn't want people to wait to buy homes. There is an obvious conflict of interest here. Wouldn't you be skeptical if you were in our position? I like your response above and I think you made some fair points. Good response
Quote:
Posted response by Captain Bill...
Yes I am a Realtor, and my primary business is investing: I buy and wholesale homes; buy and rehab and sell to retail; and buy to hold.
So where is the conflict of interest?
I am not telling people that this is the time to buy.
I have never said that
I have repeatedly stated that everyone has to make the decision to buy (or sell) based on their personal needs, and in some cases I have told people they should wait
Nothing in my post can be construed as a "Realtor sales pitch"
What I did was point out that the author of the article that someone posted was way off base. The median price in Phoenix was below his 2010 forecast number before the article was published.
The rest is factual statistics that I get from The Cromford Report and pass on to the forum for anyone who is interested.
If anyone is skeptical of my statistics then they should go and confirm them.
I was skeptical of that article so I went to confirm his numbers and found them to be all wrong.
I've pointed out the leading indicators that investors and others watch to signal changes in markets. I believe that anyone who is interested in trying to forecast the future should pay attention to those indicators.
I pointed out that the price top of around April 2006 was signaled in advance by about 12 months when the top of the supply/demand was reached in April 2005.
That makes logical sense. The under supply began to change to an over supply, and when there is an over supply, and people finally realize it, the prices decline. It's the law of supply and demand, so the reverse will happen at the bottom when we have an under supply.
We appear to have reached a bottom in supply now. For some months the supply has been declining. In the under 200k range it has dropped to around 4 months in most parts of the valley. If that holds up and/or continues to decline, then the prices will increase.
Most of the homes in that market are REO's and are being bought by first time home buyers and investors. The banks want to get as much money for their homes as possible, and they look closesly at the comps to price them. The average sale/list percentage is now at 94%, so their homes are selling on average very close to list price.
That shows up in the comps of the BPO's and banks will begin to price them accordingly.
As Markas pointed out, there is still a lot of negative news to come out. However, there is also a lot of work being done to counter the negative, so as to get the housing market and the overall economy back on track.
In an earlier post I stated that using the information that I have, I made the prediction (the first time I've done that) that the price bottom should happen by the end of 2010.
It appears to me that it will happen in the lower price range earlier than that because as new home buyers find a home in their range, they're buying them, and as we've seen, they have reduced the supply.
I'm thinking it will trickle up to the higher end homes.
In retrospect, it appears that my prediction was very close. And much closer than what many others were predicting.
I said then that from the bottom I believed the prices at the lower ranges would push the upper levels higher. Recently I made a statement to that effect again. We'll see soon enough, so stay tuned.
I thought back then that our inventory was getting low, but then it kept getting lower, until now at the lower price ranges it's extremely difficult to buy a home, and there is no more inventory in sight that will fill that lower range demand.
My concern here is that you don't need 40% or more of homes out there to be foreclosures to depress prices. You just need a steady supply in any given price range. It seems that will be the problem for some time. Yes, fewer foreclosures, but enough tricking onto the market that prices can never gain much traction. If prices can't rise, then people remain underwater and can't sell. So they go to short sales and foreclosures. The vicious cycle continues.
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) that it's because they are waiting for the market to improve further. 
Wow!
