Shadow Inventory (Phoenix, Gilbert, Peoria: short sale, real estate market, foreclosure)

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

It is not inevitable that underwater owners will default. I think that a lot of the severely underwater have already defaulted.

While I don't disagree with what you stated above, I do disagree with your implication that those who will default have already done so. Many people were waiting to see if the market would improve so that they wouldn't have to default. But now many are realizing they have no choice not to mention the fact that defaulting on homes is becoming more socially acceptable. For these reasons, you will see many more people jump ship.

It will take time before the market significantly improves. Increased jobs have to be seen, unemployment has to drop significantly, access to credit has to be advanced. It's also going to take time for peoples' credit to rebound from bankruptcy in order to get credit to purchase homes again. I think the market is slowly improving but certainly not to the level where people must rush to buy homes or else. People don't want to hear that. In our culture of instant gratification, people want to see rapid turn-arounds but it's not the case.

[Home Addict]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

It will take time before the market significantly improves. Increased jobs have to be seen, unemployment has to drop significantly, access to credit has to be advanced. It's also going to take time for peoples' credit to rebound from bankruptcy in order to get credit to purchase homes again. I think the market is slowly improving but certainly not to the level where people must rush to buy homes or else. People don't want to hear that. In our culture of instant gratification, people want to see rapid turn-arounds but it's not the case.

It is not necessary to have increased jobs to see significant housing market improvement. For example, in the 2003-2005 period, unemployment hovered around 5%, yet national median home price went from 195k to over 240k.

Access to credit has a bigger impact on the housing market.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

While I don't disagree with what you stated above, I do disagree with your implication that those who will default have already done so. Many people were waiting to see if the market would improve so that they wouldn't have to default. But now many are realizing they have no choice not to mention the fact that defaulting on homes is becoming more socially acceptable. For these reasons, you will see many more people jump ship.

It will take time before the market significantly improves. Increased jobs have to be seen, unemployment has to drop significantly, access to credit has to be advanced. It's also going to take time for peoples' credit to rebound from bankruptcy in order to get credit to purchase homes again. I think the market is slowly improving but certainly not to the level where people must rush to buy homes or else. People don't want to hear that. In our culture of instant gratification, people want to see rapid turn-arounds but it's not the case.

If someone is looking at the low end, they better be out there. NOW! It may be too late, actually It doesn't look like prices are going down in any of the other bands either, so why not make your move when the selection is still good and interest rates are unbeatable? There is risk, of course, but honestly, the risk appears to be to the upside right now.

[Johnhw2]

Originally Posted by Home Addict

It is not necessary to have increased jobs to see significant housing market improvement. For example, in the 2003-2005 period, unemployment hovered around 5%, yet national median home price went from 195k to over 240k.

Access to credit has a bigger impact on the housing market.

Yes as did too lax lending standards and lax home equity lending in some states. All are access to credit so I support your statement. I am just pointing out the unsustainable access prevalent last decaded in most states but not all

[Captain Bill]

A 16.8% increase in pricing in 7 months is not an insignificant number, especially with considerably higher prices being forecast. There is nothing that I see on the horizon to prove that forecast wrong.

I'm seeing people now making offers from other states on houses at 5-10% and more above list price, sight unseen.

I have never said that people should rush out and buy homes, but I have said that people who wait will have a much less selection of homes. And I've been correct. The selection has continued to dwindle until today in the lower price ranges, there is NO selection. It's offer on a home as it comes on the market and HOPE you don't get out bid; although you will on most offers. Ask me how I know.

Just about every home that comes on the market in Gilbert in the $150k and below range has multiple offers with a few hours.

As I've shown on the Cromford Report chart click here to see the post, prices have increased in every price range.

There is no shadow inventory big enough to replenish this supply in the foreseeable future.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

It will take time before the market significantly improves. Increased jobs have to be seen, unemployment has to drop significantly, access to credit has to be advanced. It's also going to take time for peoples' credit to rebound from bankruptcy in order to get credit to purchase homes again. I think the market is slowly improving but certainly not to the level where people must rush to buy homes or else. People don't want to hear that. In our culture of instant gratification, people want to see rapid turn-arounds but it's not the case.

If you wait for unemployment to fall below 5 percent & defaulters credit to improve, the prices will already have increased. Phoenix is and always has been a boom town.

[jdahunt]

I have been watching houses in the Phoenix area for the past 6 months waiting for the right time to buy a vacation home.

Not one house that I have on any of my many watch lists has gone up in value, most in fact keep dropping every couple of weeks.....and some have been sold.....almost every sale has been lower than the asking price.

We will be flying out on April and hope to close on a property then, but I do expect to lose some value before it turns around.

We may be at the same place a lot of people were at in 2009 when they thought for sure it had reached bottom, only to discover is wasn't by far.

I still believe Europe is going to explode and gas is going to tank the economy (no pun intended..lol) further, I don't think anyone has a clue today what housing will be like in another 6 months.

The money I'm going to be spending is throw away cash, if it doesn't work out then no big deal....if it were otherwise I don't think I would be buying.

Captain Bill I find your comments about how quick offers are being put on homes not anywhere near what I am seeing.

How do you then explain all of the homes, hundreds if not thousands that are sitting more than 90 days out with no offers.....in the 100-175 range.....are all of these mls sites wrong?

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

I have been watching houses in the Phoenix area for the past 6 months waiting for the right time to buy a vacation home.

Not one house that I have on any of my many watch lists has gone up in value, most in fact keep dropping every couple of weeks.....and some have been sold.....almost every sale has been lower than the asking price.

We will be flying out on April and hope to close on a property then, but I do expect to lose some value before it turns around.

We may be at the same place a lot of people were at in 2009 when they thought for sure it had reached bottom, only to discover is wasn't by far.

I still believe Europe is going to explode and gas is going to tank the economy (no pun intended..lol) further, I don't think anyone has a clue today what housing will be like in another 6 months.

The money I'm going to be spending is throw away cash, if it doesn't work out then no big deal....if it were otherwise I don't think I would be buying.

What price range have you been looking?

[whodiman]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

I have been watching houses in the Phoenix area for the past 6 months waiting for the right time to buy a vacation home.

Not one house that I have on any of my many watch lists has gone up in value, most in fact keep dropping every couple of weeks.....and some have been sold.....almost every sale has been lower than the asking price.

We will be flying out on April and hope to close on a property then, but I do expect to lose some value before it turns around.

We may be at the same place a lot of people were at in 2009 when they thought for sure it had reached bottom, only to discover is wasn't by far.

I still believe Europe is going to explode and gas is going to tank the economy (no pun intended..lol) further, I don't think anyone has a clue today what housing will be like in another 6 months.

The money I'm going to be spending is throw away cash, if it doesn't work out then no big deal....if it were otherwise I don't think I would be buying.

Captain Bill I find your comments about how quick offers are being put on homes not anywhere near what I am seeing.

How do you then explain all of the homes, hundreds if not thousands that are sitting more than 90 days out with no offers.....in the 100-175 range.....are all of these mls sites wrong?

this is certainly odd. I am not doubting you but which area in Phoenix are you looking? Like Madoff asking , " What price range?". It's not just Captain Bill but if you google any realtor blog and youtube you'll find that this is a very common claim by anyone in the Phoenix housing industry. You even find news channels talking about about this.

[Home Addict]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

Not one house that I have on any of my many watch lists has gone up in value, most in fact keep dropping every couple of weeks.....and some have been sold.....almost every sale has been lower than the asking price.

Your experience is almost opposite to mine. I searched and bought a home in Gilbert, so I'll speak to that town:

Currently there are 378 non-short sales homes in Gilbert, of which 22 of them are listed under 150k. If you want a newer home (built after 2000), there is 1. When I bought my home early last year, listings under 150k were always in the hundreds.

Could you let me know where and what price range are you looking into? That might be a segment that may still reward the late buyers.