60% of Home Buyers are Investors in Phoenix market (Gilbert, Surprise: homes, appraisal)

[coorsleftfield]

The other thing I've run into several times now is that you have to be prepared to pay over appraised value if you want the house. I've gone after 2 houses that were in demand, and both times the seller was asking more than the appraisal came in, and they refused to drop their price. Both ended up getting a seller willing to pay over appraised value to get the house. If you're trying to buy with a loan this means you need your down payment + more cash to make up the appraisal/sale price difference. This is the kind of thing that will really push prices up. Everytime one of these closes, now there is a comp at a higher price for the next house/appraisal.

[jdahunt]

In Phoenix when do the snowbirds normally start leaving, it has got be near that time right?

[SpeedyAZ]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

In Phoenix when do the snowbirds normally start leaving, it has got be near that time right?

Not sure what it has to do with this thread but most snowbirds start vacating Phoenix at the end of March, a few stay until mid April though.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

In Phoenix when do the snowbirds normally start leaving, it has got be near that time right?

In the other thread you asked if things (assume you were talking about real estate sales) would slow down then.

I replied that the Phoenix real estate market peaks in June.

Below is a chart showing the sales per month for the past 3 years. Perhaps that will answer your question. If you're thinking that real estate sales will drop off when the snowbirds leave, I doubt that will happen.

[khuntrevor]

Is that closings or signed contracts?

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by khuntrevor

Is that closings or signed contracts?

Closed.

[whodiman]

A guy I used to play ball against just bought a house in Buckeye today. His brother bought one last year. Now if he was a good friend I probably would have suggested he buy elsewhere but that's another discussion. He just spent a week there and liked it so he made his purchase. It probably won't qualify as an investor purchase as he intends to live in it a few weeks every year and not rent it out or does it? Anyways when guys like this are buying out there on impulse and paying cash you know the market is heating up. Yes Buckeye is cheaper but he did fork over 80k for it. 1200 ft 1 storey home. 3 bedrooms 2 baths. Built in 2003. I'm sure it was only a year ago you could buy something like this out there for much less than 80k.

[jdahunt]

Well that would make sense.....they rush to buy before they leave then end up closing 30-60 days later.

The story would be what happens after the offer rush in March and April right?

So historically for the last 3 years the offers from the snow birds should start tapering off right?

Your own chart shows a significant downward movement soon after they leave town....then more upward movement when they come back later in the year....so they must have some effect right?

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

Well that would make sense.....they rush to buy before they leave then end up closing 30-60 days later.

The story would be what happens after the offer rush in March and April right?

So historically for the last 3 years the offers from the snow birds should start tapering off right?

Your own chart shows a significant downward movement soon after they leave town....then more upward movement when they come back later in the year....so they must have some effect right?

You have to interpret the chart in your own way. If you think there is a dip because of snowbirds, then use that. If you think it's because of spring break, then use that.

Will that mean there will be more homes available on the market, or less competition than there is today? I don't think so. But you'll see soon enough.

[ReadyFreddy]

I don't think it has much to do with migration habits of snowbirds. I think home sales are probably more up in the spring because of weather, holidays and school schedules.