29 and 40 offers on 2 different houses for sale (hotel, to buy)

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by ReadyFreddy

Maybe it was easy then but today the banks don't often give out Owner Occ. loans if you already are on one. So I expect the records are at least close to correct.



I'm not complaining, but 25% MORE this year would be even more awesome than 25% total this year!

Today's numbers are more accurate than in previous years, but there are still flaws - the county will still accept three "owner occupied" affidavits from the same person on the same day, just as they did during the bubble. Supposedly, they'll send you a letter to confirm the info. And that's a change from previous years. It isn't unusual at all to see "owner occupied" in the tax records when I look at rentals, nor is it unusual to see an out-of-state address for the "owner occupant". They're trying to crack down on that, but it's still very common.

[ReadyFreddy]

I bet. Probably much less so on mortgaged properties, though.

[khuntrevor]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

Today's numbers are more accurate than in previous years, but there are still flaws - the county will still accept three "owner occupied" affidavits from the same person on the same day, just as they did during the bubble. Supposedly, they'll send you a letter to confirm the info. And that's a change from previous years. It isn't unusual at all to see "owner occupied" in the tax records when I look at rentals, nor is it unusual to see an out-of-state address for the "owner occupant". They're trying to crack down on that, but it's still very common.

There is a potential large fine by the day for people who lie about owner occupancy with the city. I got a 1099 from the City on my rental revenue. It is pure tax evasion if you don't have it properly classified. I'm getting a little tired of this guy's Oregon license plate on his volvo, in front of the house he bought two years ago.

[khuntrevor]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

• In 2005 the landlord percentage peaked at 17%.
• It declined to around 9% by early 2008.
• At that time sales began to pick up strongly, and the sales to landlords (all other than buyer/occupant) shot up to 20% by Feb 2009.
• Today it's 28%.

Below is a Monthly Price Appreciation chart, courtesy of the Cromford Report showing the amount of price appreciation by price range. The chart shows an annual appreciation rate for each price range, measured monthly.

The supply is leveling off now, but there are only 992 Active REO's compared to 14,237 at the peak in Jan 2009.

The overall price increase per square foot has gone from $85.22 to $98.81 in 3 months. That's 15.4%, which is an annualized rate of 61%.

Is that rate of increase sustainable?

I seriously doubt it.

Mike Orr of the Cromford Report has predicted a 25% increase by the 4th quarter, and I'm going to hang my hat on that prediction because that appears to be attainable.

We're coming up to our peak month of June, and after that, getting into the slow season, the market should cool down a bit.

Am I the only one, who recalls the self declared experts stating here (and in LV) that you would get less appreciation buying cheap?

And those horrible cheap condos.......who would want a 30% return, when they can get 1% from JPM?

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

No, there weren't more owner-occupants, and the "investor bans" were more talk than action. The speculators at that time were regular folks with no real money, but good credit, and they were buying "twosies" and "threesies" at a time.

There were more owner occupants. The national and local economy was much better then. Phoenix was one of the top ranked cities for fastest growing jobs and was the fastest growing city in the country by overtaking Las Vegas briefly. All of those factors led to more owner occupants. Many people moving here from out of state would buy a home without ever seeing it in person because the competition was that intense. The banks were giving anyone who could breathe a loan and so everyone had the capability of obtaining a home at the time which meant more owner occupants. And this home buying frenzy occupied every class of home and wasn't limited to cheaper homes like today. I remember you couldn't find a decent home in PV for less than 2 million at the time, it was insane and the generic cookie cutter homes in Scottsdale were selling for 800-900K which you can buy for 400K now. The demand was significantly higher then. Now, it's become a mecca for investors who want to get a deal on a cheaper home but the homes priced above 250K are plentiful and the large luxury homes are dropping in price.

[Captain Bill]

Here is the Months Supply of Inventory in various price ranges as of May 12, 2012

100-125.......1.6
125-150.......1.6
150-175.......1.8
175-200.......2.1
200-225.......1.9
225-250.......2.4
250-300.......2.4
300-350.......3.0
350-400.......3.2
400-500.......3.8
500-600.......4.9
600-800.......5.3
800-1m........8.7
1.5-2m........15.2

With 6 months supply being considered a balanced supply, we currently have less than a balanced supply in all price ranges below 800k, and as I showed in a graph yesterday, there have been yoy price increases in almost all those price ranges.

However, the market for 800+ homes is much smaller, so it's normal for them to have a larger inventory, and take more time to sell.

From Oct 06 to June 07, the supply in the 800-1mil price range was from 15 months to 11 months.

Then it increased to 42 months by March 09. It declined to 9.3 months by April 2011. Then it increased to 12.5 months by Feb 2012, and has steadily decline to 8.7 since then.

Source is the Cromford Report.

[themudpuppy]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

We're coming up to our peak month of June, and after that, getting into the slow season, the market should cool down a bit.

Do you think prices will continue to rise during the slow season, or stay about where they are now? I'm arriving in Phoenix in about 2 weeks. Wonder if I should try to buy right away in June and deal with all the competition, or hang back until after the peak. I'm in the $100K & under price range.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by tnp

Do you think prices will continue to rise during the slow season, or stay about where they are now? I'm arriving in Phoenix in about 2 weeks. Wonder if I should try to buy right away in June and deal with all the competition, or hang back until after the peak. I'm in the $100K & under price range.

I wouldn't want to advise you either way because it's an unknown.

There is no new inventory in sight for your price range. So even if it slows down that could just mean less competition, (but not "no competition")

We know that last year sales and prices started picking up in August, which was unusual and the Cromford Report data is forecasting a 25% increase for the year by October.

You have to decide if the prices are at a price where you feel they are a bargain, or do you expect them to be lower this fall.

If you feel they are a bargain then jump in like jdahunt did and be aggressive in your bidding.

If you feel they may decrease and competition go away, then maybe you should wait.

Study the data that is on the "Phoenix market keeps tanking" thread, and a couple others. Hopefully the data will help you to make an educated decision.

[themudpuppy]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

You have to decide if the prices are at a price where you feel they are a bargain, or do you expect them to be lower this fall.

Oh I definitely don't expect prices to go down. I just thought if they stay around the same, waiting might mean less competition for the same prices and a better chance at getting an offer accepted. But I'm afraid if I do wait prices may increase even if there's less competition. I guess I'll go for it when I get there and hope I get lucky and get an offer accepted.

[ReadyFreddy]

Originally Posted by tnp

Do you think prices will continue to rise during the slow season, or stay about where they are now? I'm arriving in Phoenix in about 2 weeks. Wonder if I should try to buy right away in June and deal with all the competition, or hang back until after the peak. I'm in the $100K & under price range.

If you're definitely arriving and staying in a hotel, I'd try to buy the whole time. It might take 4 months of trying, better to start now. I think like Bill said, competition in the low ranges never goes away.