29 and 40 offers on 2 different houses for sale (Phoenix, Scottsdale: rentals, condo)

[autism360]

I still think there were more owner/occupant purchases then than now,back then you did not have to be a cash buyer like many home buyers over the last year and it was easier for owner occupants to get loans. I would love to see the stats on owner /occupant buyers now vs 6 years ago.
Anyone know where I can find these stats?

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by autism360

I still think there were more owner/occupant purchases then than now,back then you did not have to be a cash buyer like many home buyers over the last year and it was easier for owner occupants to get loans. I would love to see the stats on owner /occupant buyers now vs 6 years ago.
Anyone know where I can find these stats?

You are right. In addition to that, back then the frenzy included all homes not just ones less than 200K. The entire market was booming. Now it is limited to homes less than 200K and most of the buyers seem to be investors who pay cash. It's still positive news but it's nothing like it was in 2006. It was a completely different market back then.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by autism360

I still think there were more owner/occupant purchases then than now,back then you did not have to be a cash buyer like many home buyers over the last year and it was easier for owner occupants to get loans. I would love to see the stats on owner /occupant buyers now vs 6 years ago.
Anyone know where I can find these stats?

• In 2005 the landlord percentage peaked at 17%.
• It declined to around 9% by early 2008.
• At that time sales began to pick up strongly, and the sales to landlords (all other than buyer/occupant) shot up to 20% by Feb 2009.
• Today it's 28%.

Below is a Monthly Price Appreciation chart, courtesy of the Cromford Report showing the amount of price appreciation by price range. The chart shows an annual appreciation rate for each price range, measured monthly.

The supply is leveling off now, but there are only 992 Active REO's compared to 14,237 at the peak in Jan 2009.

The overall price increase per square foot has gone from $85.22 to $98.81 in 3 months. That's 15.4%, which is an annualized rate of 61%.

Is that rate of increase sustainable?

I seriously doubt it.

Mike Orr of the Cromford Report has predicted a 25% increase by the 4th quarter, and I'm going to hang my hat on that prediction because that appears to be attainable.

We're coming up to our peak month of June, and after that, getting into the slow season, the market should cool down a bit.

[ReadyFreddy]

Mike Orr of the Cromford Report has predicted a 25% increase by the 4th quarter,

Is that 25% more from here or 25% total for 2012?

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by ReadyFreddy

Is that 25% more from here or 25% total for 2012?

Total this year.

[ReadyFreddy]

Oh bummer.

[jimj]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

Total this year.

And anybody who'd complain about that figure needs to rethink the complaint. I'd be very happy with hitting a plateau for a bit to let the increase sink in and firm up than a constant big rise that would most likely correct just as fast.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by autism360

I still think there were more owner/occupant purchases then than now,back then you did not have to be a cash buyer like many home buyers over the last year and it was easier for owner occupants to get loans. I would love to see the stats on owner /occupant buyers now vs 6 years ago.
Anyone know where I can find these stats?

You can't *believe* any stats you do find for that time period. The only way to measure is by what the purchaser tells the county on the affidavit of value, and if they were getting an "owner occupant" loan on an investment property, the paperwork would filed as owner-occupant, even if the home was rented or left vacant.

Things were so bad during the bubble that it threw off our population counts & growth estimates because Every building permit was assumed to equal 1 family, and that wasn't the case. When you dig deeper & count drivers license issuances or even utility bills you see that much of our explosive growth was based on nothing but mania. I read some very scary research before the crash about the disparities, but it certainly wasn't published in the mainstream at the time, and the links are buried in the bulk of google now, so I would have to dig for them.

In any case, The economics of the time tell the story, the only way rents don't increase when purchase prices double is if there is too much rental supply - and rents in Phoenix went down during the bubble.

[autism360]

In any case, The economics of the time tell the story, the only way rents don't increase when purchase prices double is if there is too much rental supply - and rents in Phoenix went down during the bubble

back then you could buy a home with a stated income loan(liar loan) and no $$$$ down,so why rent? Things are different now and I doubt lending standards will be that loose again but you never know........

[ReadyFreddy]

and if they were getting an "owner occupant" loan on an investment property, the paperwork would filed as owner-occupant, even if the home was rented or left vacant.

Maybe it was easy then but today the banks don't often give out Owner Occ. loans if you already are on one. So I expect the records are at least close to correct.

And anybody who'd complain about that figure needs to rethink the complaint.

I'm not complaining, but 25% MORE this year would be even more awesome than 25% total this year!