New Phoenix area housing hotspots 2014 and beyond... (real estate, lease)

[HX_Guy]

Good article on AZCentral about the surge in land buying for future new home builds:
http://www.azcentral.com/business/re...nd-growth.html

There is also a video that basically summarizes everything: azcentral.com video: Business for Breakfast: 02/05

Looks like the West Valley is going to get a lot of attention but also up North and in the Southeast Valley as well.

[EDnurse]

Interesting article. I had a feeling this was going to happen.

I sold my house back in November 2012. The house went on the market on a Thursday morning. I received a great offer on Saturday: 10K over asking price from a very well qualified buyer. The house was on the market for 2 days! The whole process was very smooth.

I think what worked for me was that my house was completely tiled, even the closets. All the inspections passed w/flying colors too. I also had an awesome realtor.

The base price of the new build house we bought is already 11K more than what I paid.

[HX_Guy]

It is pretty crazy how fast things are moving, a little scary honestly. While I want prices to go up and more houses to be built, I don't want it to be another bubble.

It makes me wonder, where are all these buyers coming from? Are they people who lost their house years ago and have been renting? Are they people who are moving to the area from out of town? Are they people who lived in their previous home for a while and feel now is the right time to upgrade?

[john3232]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

It is pretty crazy how fast things are moving, a little scary honestly. While I want prices to go up and more houses to be built, I don't want it to be another bubble.

My feeling is people buying today have good credit and can actually afford the home. I'd like values to continue to rise and if we can get back to 2005 prices by around 2016-17 that would be great.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

It is pretty crazy how fast things are moving, a little scary honestly. While I want prices to go up and more houses to be built, I don't want it to be another bubble.

It makes me wonder, where are all these buyers coming from? Are they people who lost their house years ago and have been renting? Are they people who are moving to the area from out of town? Are they people who lived in their previous home for a while and feel now is the right time to upgrade?

HX. Thanks for sharing the link. I figured building was doing well but not THIS well.

That said, I appreciated this quote "In other ways, this is a new era. Growth is projected to continue at a steady pace for the next few years, with the number of houses built to stay below 50 percent of the number that went up in the peak boom year of 2006. and this one "Fewer than 21,000 lots remain ready to be built on in metro Phoenix’s planned communities, compared with 75,000 in 2003, according to a new analysis from RL Brown Reports". No one wants this to be another bubble. When you hear investors buying up new homes, that's when you want to worry.

People are upgrading, relocating, downgrading (and rebuilding), more snowbirds are coming before prices rise more, families credit are healing after the bust, northerners are still sick of winters, etc. So long as money stays cheap and the economy just clips along at this pace, Phoenix is going to go up in price. Land is up 100% and rising, supplies are up, and labor pricing will be going up with the new labor shortage.

My free advise: People should finish up their own housing uupgrade projects sooner than later. Those prices are going to climb as well.

[Ponderosa]

With many new subdivisions opening up, it will bring the return of Phoenix's favorite weekend recreational event: touring model homes.

[asufan]

I know some people don't agree, but the low interest rates are what is driving the market, and especially the new home market, as people in older homes have refi'd to 3.25% and now don't want to budge, creating an inventory shortage. The inventory shortage on the lower end of the market has let people have equity in their houses again, and now see the possibility of moving up, but they can't find a house. Of course the lower rates lowers the "cost of money" and increases buying power, which leads to prices rising. It's the perfect storm for new home builders. Not saying rates are 100% of the driving force, but the major factor.

[DetroitN8V]

From someone who is in the market for a house now, let me tell you first hand that the market is insane right now. There are few houses to see, builders have waiting lists for lots and houses are going for above asking after a bidding war. I'm in a tough place because I have a lease until summertime but fear prices going up even more if I wait. Even if I were able to pull the trigger now, we're having a hard time finding something that works under $500k. This is an interesting time in PHX real estate to say the least.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by asufan

I know some people don't agree, but the low interest rates are what is driving the market, and especially the new home market, as people in older homes have refi'd to 3.25% and now don't want to budge, creating an inventory shortage. The inventory shortage on the lower end of the market has let people have equity in their houses again, and now see the possibility of moving up, but they can't find a house. Of course the lower rates lowers the "cost of money" and increases buying power, which leads to prices rising. It's the perfect storm for new home builders. Not saying rates are 100% of the driving force, but the major factor.

I agree that rates have a pronounced influence. But I think the major impact is yet come. As the economy improves and rates increase, millions will be sitting on houses that have rates well below what it will cost them to "move up" - maybe double or more. Trading in the old house for a new one will be an expensive proposition because the cost of buying a larger, newer home will be much more than the principal differential. This could well kill the move up market where homebuilders really rake in the profits. On the other hand it will be boon to secondary lenders and the home improvement business.

[HX_Guy]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

With many new subdivisions opening up, it will bring the return of Phoenix's favorite weekend recreational event: touring model homes.

My wife and I looooove doing that!