Any predictions on Phx area home values next 12 months? (Phoenix: real estate, apartment)

[DougStark]

I like to check the National Assoc. of Realtors median home price stats every quarter. Phoenix hasn't done as well in appreciation as some other growing cities (namely Denver, which has shot up like a rocket.)

How do you think the next 12 months will be for home appreciation here? It's anyone's guess, I suppose.
I never would have thought Denver would become so incredibly expensive as it is now.

[ScottsdaleMark]

I am thinking flat to slow growth. That seems to be the trajectory currently. There is a LOT of construction going on around town, some in-fill residential and building on the outskirts, but particularly a lot of commercial projects. Just in the last few months we've seen lots razed and some kind of building begun, for example, at McDowell both just west and east of Central Ave. I saw a new residential subdivision in process of being built recently on Cactus I think around 67th or 75th Ave. And then there is the never-ending building around the Tempe town reservoir, and the concurrent number of posts we've seen on this very forum about employees of State Farm etc. considering a move to Phoenix. We're not in a construction craze yet like 10-15 years ago, thankfully, but they are definitely active around town.

[smoochaz]

The Cromford Report provides the predictions and forecasts that you may be looking for...

[KurtAZ]

Denver is going crazy because of the legalized MJ craze up there. Rental prices have shot through the roof as well.

I would say that we may see some moderate growth but it really is going to depend on your zip code.

[JGMotorsport64]

Moderate infill, limited fringe growth until the 202 Expressway is constructed to alleviate traffic in Central Phoenix.

It is expected that Phoenix will return to pre-recession employment levels in early 2017 so I'd say slightly faster growth than current but nothing like pre-recession will happen here again for a long time.

When/if the light rail construction begins I think we'll see some old building razing for large apartment/condo complexes like Tempe has done or even Phoenix has been doing along Washington.

[DougStark]

Good inputs. Thanks. I still think Phoenix is a bargain compared to nearby southern CA, but then again, this isn't southern CA, for better or worse. The more crazy and unlivable so. CA becomes, the more property values in AZ will rise I believe.

I wish Phoenix (or more properly Arizona) could shake this false image as a redneck, bigoted state; it's not that. The main negative I see here is the summer heat, which is a non-negotiable item.

[new2colo]

Flat to slow growth. Demand to move to AZ is a fraction of what it was during the boom. The real estate engine is still sputtering and will continue to do so until this state gets serious about its future. Our educational system is poor and will remain so until there is serious reform, our job growth in high paying industries is deplorable, and this city is not one of the main destinations for Millennials. Without much to attract people here, growth will continue to be lethargic, and home prices will remain flat because people are not beating down any doors to come here.

States like Colorado, Utah, and California are all leaving Arizona in the dust in terms of home appreciation. Arizona continues to sit on its ass and count on 70 degree winters and perfectly manicured golf courses to bring people back in.

[Wally Sconce]

Flat..Canada is not buying anymore.

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by DougStark

Good inputs. Thanks. I still think Phoenix is a bargain compared to nearby southern CA, but then again, this isn't southern CA, for better or worse. The more crazy and unlivable so. CA becomes, the more property values in AZ will rise I believe.

I wish Phoenix (or more properly Arizona) could shake this false image as a redneck, bigoted state; it's not that. The main negative I see here is the summer heat, which is a non-negotiable item.

That debate has taken place all over this board. Until the State itself changes in leadership the AZ status quo of boom bust economic climate, real estate industrial complex, private prison complex and reliance on the dependable (retirees) will always prevail. The redneck image will be shaken soon, I'm no fan of Ducey but he has done a commendable PR job unlike Brewer did. To my knowledge I know out of state people who think AZ is a warzone thanks to the hyperbolic rhetoric we were seeing about 6 years ago. Likewise my hope is that Arpaio will get ousted and that will present AZ with some new forward thinking public officials.

But to say more concisely the 08 recession fueled by our own RE Industry ravaged this state, we followed that up with bad rhetoric and have given ourselves a black eye. That is changing. Certain demographics are dying off and certain ones are growing and AZ will change as a result.

[sunluv]

Lots of negativity here, but the truth is that Phoenix, with the exception of one respite a year or two ago that was a healthy break from price increases, has been trending steadily upwards for years. Slow upwards pressure resulted in a longer than usual buying season this spring and summer.

Slow and steady at this point is exactly what you'd want to avoid a bubble. As the economy improves, so will upwards pressure but in the meantime there's plenty of demand for the supply and a healthy, moderate upwards slope.