Any guesses on home prices? (Phoenix, Avondale: sales, 2015, rent)

[ScottsdaleMark]

Originally Posted by asufan

Chase is still one of the biggest investors of mortgages on the secondary market here in the Phoenix market. They are probably only looking for "A" paper and being more discerning, which makes sense to me. FHA loans are also not looked at as attractive to lenders anymore as well, with a company such as Quicken considering not doing FHA's anymore.

My thinking is about in line with MN, I see a 3-5% up or down, largely stable. I don't see a bubble and I do not see prices skyrocketing either.

This is also true! I have a mortgage from 2011 that, in that time, has been sold/transferred from GMAC to Ocwen to Chase. I am guessing Chase must've bought it as part of Ocwen trying to get on its feet again after its legal issues. Still, it shall be interesting to see how many different companies hold the mortage over its 30 year life. What's the record for those posting here in terms of how many times your mortgage changed hands and you had to change who you sent your checks to?

[sunluv]

They've been in an upwards trend for years now; the idea that they'd go down now, when the fed just put tiny brakes on, is nuts. That assumption is overly conservative. The moderate upwards trend will continue, and not just this year.

[Gentleman Jason]

Thanks for the input folks. I'm looking to buy but don't want to spend too much and don't want my house to be worth less that I paid for it in a few months.

[MotleyCrew]

Originally Posted by Gentleman Jason

Thanks for the input folks. I'm looking to buy but don't want to spend too much and don't want my house to be worth less that I paid for it in a few months.

We bought a home in 04 here and watched it go up and up in value only to crash and be worth 40% less than we paid for it. It happens and no one person or entity can guarantee your success in real estate. If you should buy now and have it worth less due to a drop in the market, please just sit and ride it out. We watched what happened to our economy when people just walked from their stupid loans. We were one of only 3 people that did hang on to our home in our neighborhood and just rented it out for the time. We just sold it and made money on it. That is how you win.

[petlover8]

Remember this regardless of whatever you buy, or wherever you buy it. Real estate is much like stocks, and most other investments. You don't gain or lose until you sell. Real estate value in that regard is much like the weather. If you don't like it, stick around for a while and it will change. I purchased my present home new from the builder back in 1997 for $101,000.00. I watched it rise to $270,000.00 in 2006-2007. And I saw it fall to $75,000.00 not long after that. Now it presently sits at around $170,000.00. I'm still here. I've gained and lost nothing. I've just watched a bunch of numbers roll by.

[stevek64]

Originally Posted by Gentleman Jason

Thanks for the input folks. I'm looking to buy but don't want to spend too much and don't want my house to be worth less that I paid for it in a few months.

No one can predict such a thing with any certainty, especially such a short time frame. If they say they can, run. Make an educated guess? Maybe. Too many variables.

Personally if I were buying a house for my personal use, unless we are in an obvious bubble like in the mid 2000's, being concerned about what my house was worth "in a few months" or years for that matter after purchasing it wouldn't even be on the list, especially if I was planning on living in it for a long period of time. Enjoying it would be.

[GeneR]

I would suggest the FOMC action intended to raise overnight bank lending rates will NOT impact the real estate market. In the two days since the FED announced they would like to see the overnight lending rate (the Federal Funds rate) increase by a quarter point mortgage rates have decreased.

Looking at data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve between 2004 and 2006 the FED increased the short term rate by 4% while mortgage rates increased by only 1%. Granted as the FED increases the short term rates mortgage rates are more likely to increase than decrease. The National Association of Realtors predicts mortgage rates will increase by 0.5% in 2016.

The point is a quarter point increase in the Federal Funds rate does NOT mean a quarter point increase in mortgage rates.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by Gentleman Jason

Thanks for the input folks. I'm looking to buy but don't want to spend too much and don't want my house to be worth less that I paid for it in a few months.

there are some very *loud* people on the web who claim that pricing & interest rates are in lockstep. Those folks are just plain wrong. Houses weren't cheap when rates were 16%, and values didn't go to the moon when rates were 3%. I think you'll be very happy you bought in the valley now & locked in at current interest rates in a decade. I'm a couple years into a 4% 15-year mortgage & life is good!

[John7777]

I'm not so sure I'd be asking Phoenix people their thoughts on the direction of Phoenix real estate prices. Of course they think they're stable and will rise.

I lived in the Phoenix area for about 11 years. Both Scottsdale and Phoenix. I'm thinking of moving back, so I've been looking at the listings. If you ask me, most properties seem to be priced for perfection or overpriced. The Fed has done a good job of reflating the real estate bubble.

Can it last? I wouldn't bet my hard earned money on it. Of course, AZ is a non-recourse state, so if you finance an overpriced house, all you have to lose is the down payment, right?

The bottom line is that I can't see prices rising from here. We're about to be in another recession.

[Greeniis78]

I personally would wait atleast a year. I dont think prices will rise anymore. The way I think is that the Fed wants us to be far from the reality and truth for their economic gain. As you can see more and more assisted down payment loans are coming out, there are some price cuts, and homes are staying longer on the market. But the housing market is great they say. Trust me im tempted to buy buy Im smart enough to just wait atleast a year and let this market take its course and not buy an over priced home.