Help me Understand PHX Real Estate Market (Phoenix, Chandler: 2015, foreclosure)

[mpsprowl]

I am moving from the midwest and have been searching on Realtor.com in the Chandler / Gilbert area.

I see quite a few houses that sold for ~$90 per sq/ft in the 2010 to 2013 time frame and now are at ~$140 a sq/ft. I don't understand the pricing instability.

A second question: I see quite high vacancy rates (up to 50%) in some neighborhoods. Could there be undeclared problems in the area or could the neighborhood be in transition?

What are your thoughts?

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by mpsprowl

I am moving from the midwest and have been searching on Realtor.com in the Chandler / Gilbert area.

I see quite a few houses that sold for ~$90 per sq/ft in the 2010 to 2013 time frame and now are at ~$140 a sq/ft. I don't understand the pricing instability.

I wasn't sure if you were kidding or not. But considering 30% of Americans don't know which year 9/11 happened or what the Holocaust was (for more gems see 14 Surprising Things Americans Don’t Know, According To Poll Numbers | Thought Catalog ), I figured you may be serious. Therefore google "Phoenix foreclosure crisis 2009". PHX area was the foreclosure epicenter. during the run up (1999-2006), demand and pricing was artificially high in 2006 and it came crashing down when the economy plummeted in the great recession. "Investors" were buying homes, and liar loans (google it) were running rampant. When prices dropped a lot, many used the liberal laws to walk and pushed the housing prices even lower. Prices actually overshot well below what it cost to rebuild. Once the "bottom" was hit in mid 2011, pricing shot back quickly to an equilibrium in 2014. In 2015 and 2016, it will be rising 3-4% per year. The laws have been tightened so we should be in good shape without it repeating itself. There are still a lot of people running around talking about a new bubble. But then again people want to believe in doom-and-gloom predictions.

Originally Posted by mpsprowl

A second question: I see quite high vacancy rates (up to 50%) in some neighborhoods. Could there be undeclared problems in the area or could the neighborhood be in transition?

What are your thoughts?

There isn't housing vacancy rates of up to 50% in Chandler or Gilbert. No way no how. You are staring at bad data.

[SageCats]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

There isn't housing vacancy rates of up to 50% in Chandler or Gilbert. No way no how. You are staring at bad data.

I don't think there's even a vacancy rate that high in Detroit, which probably has the highest vacancy rate in the country.

[mpsprowl]

Thanks for the input. I didn't realize the real estate bottom of the foreclosure crisis was mid-2011. We didn't experience it here and stocks bottomed over two-years prior. I watched the foreclosure crisis from afar.

The most recent Google result on Phoenix vacancies I was able to find was from The Arizona Republic and was over a year old. The vacancy metric was from this site for the immediate neighborhood of a specific address. "Vacancy status - Rented or sold, not occupied (%): 50%"

[beckerd2]

You need to check the actual mls (its the same thing that realtors use)... it has more reliable and up to date information. Here is the link...


Phoenix MLS Search.com :: Phoenix, Arizona MLS Listings Search


Realtor.com and Trulia.com are good to see what the crime statistics are and what people may have paid, but they don't seem to stay current on what is available.




The previous poster is correct. Housing markets were crashed in the years your talking about.

[mpsprowl]

You all are great. Thanks.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

...PHX area was the foreclosure epicenter. during the run up (1999-2006), demand and pricing was artificially high in 2006 and it came crashing down when the economy plummeted in the great recession. "Investors" were buying homes, and liar loans (google it) were running rampant. When prices dropped a lot, many used the liberal laws to walk and pushed the housing prices even lower. Prices actually overshot well below what it cost to rebuild. Once the "bottom" was hit in mid 2011, pricing shot back quickly to an equilibrium in 2014. In 2015 and 2016, it will be rising 3-4% per year. The laws have been tightened so we should be in good shape without it repeating itself. There are still a lot of people running around talking about a new bubble. But then again people want to believe in doom-and-gloom predictions.

Well, said.

I`ll never forget Feb/March of 2006 when I still had a chance to **get out. I saw prices begin to slow after the summer of 05 but I was a very inexperienced investor. Someone who had no idea the kind of nightmare crash that would soon hit. By 2008 those who couldn`t afford to keep paying their mortgage were long gone. However, it was home owners who could afford the mortgage yet decided to walk away that really cratered the market.



**bought in Feb. of 05

[DougStark]

I don't think Phoenix is anywhere near "bubble-territory" now, but I would be very leary of buying in metro Denver right now. Their prices have shot up so fast in the last 4 yrs, I believe it will create negative "unintended consequences", like people from elsewhere turning down jobs there, speculation/home flips, etc. (median home price in Denver metro is now 353K, vs. Phoenix at 221K- (source, Nat. Assn. of Realtors, 2015 4th Qtr. Median home prices, single family)