Upbeat Data for Phoenix RE Market... again (Scottsdale, Sun City: short sale, 2015)

[ScottsdaleMark]

I don't think they'd be counting that land area among land that could be developed, since it is not available for purchase anyway. In the Phoenix area, you have the Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community which is east of Scottsdale and north of Mesa, and the Gila River community which is south of Phoenix.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I was told that major swatches of land in the PHX area is owned by Indian tribes. More specifically the large pockets of open land near ASU and parts of Scottsdale, were tribal lands. Is this what explains the bulk of the 40% of open land inside of the city of Phoenix?

Could be. The east valley is quickly bumping into either the national forest or tribal lands. The west valley though has huge areas available all the way from the 101 to the Colorado River. There are several new developments going in next to the 303 freeway at about Northern. Some of the best properties are in the flight and noise corridors of Luke though. But overall, it's nothing but wide open spaces in the west and that is where the bulk of new growth is now and will continue to be in the Phoenix metro.

[Chelito23]

Ponderosa,

Do you think the growth on the west end will make it to Buckeye and Beyond heading SW towards Gila Bend? Or keep following the 10 due west? Or more NW over time?

[ajonesaz]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I was told that major swatches of land in the PHX area is owned by Indian tribes. More specifically the large pockets of open land near ASU and parts of Scottsdale, were tribal lands. Is this what explains the bulk of the 40% of open land inside of the city of Phoenix?

South Mountain is part of the city of Phoenix - Largest city park in the country. My assumption is this is part of the calculation.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Chelito23

Ponderosa,

Do you think the growth on the west end will make it to Buckeye and Beyond heading SW towards Gila Bend? Or keep following the 10 due west? Or more NW over time?

I don't know that I am much of an expert, but if I to guess based on historical patterns, it will first go up and down the 303 and then along I10. Freeways seem to attract home builders like picnics do ants. The Gila Bend corridor has a lot of BLM land that they would have to swap, too. Honestly, there are so many acres in Goodyear, Buckeye, Peoria and Surprise that are in ag, have infrastructure, and proximity to transportation, I think it will be a long, long time before it goes out MC85.

[cjseliga]

Originally Posted by Chelito23

Do you think the growth on the west end will make it to Buckeye and Beyond heading SW towards Gila Bend? Or keep following the 10 due west? Or more NW over time?

I think the only potential growth will probably be where they decide to put the I-11 corridor.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I'm confused. You said you are UP 120% since 2013. Well, that was "a few years ago". With that said, double check your percentage. What is your zip code?

Nothing confusing about it. I check the data on Maricopa County Assessor's website and key in my address (which is located in zip code 85018 by the way). You can get all kinds of info on your home this way, including the valuation, property description, taxes, etc. In 2013, the full cash value of my house was less than $200,000, but in 2016 the full cash value is close to $400,000. This figures to be just over a 120% increase in three years' time.

Originally Posted by JTW2013

But isn't infill more expensive to build than developing a new subdivision? I don't know about here but in Chicago, infill is expensive.

I remember having a discussion here about a year ago about how there is no financial incentive for people in this market to upgrade their homes because everyone just keeps buying new homes and going further and further out. I remember commenting about whether that would change as the edge of town got further out and people had longer commutes.

In Chicago, where we came from, the desirable close in suburbs with reasonable commutes and good schools are growing in value and people in those older homes are upgrading them. This is because new can only be found with a horrendous commute or with an infill home that is very expensive.

It largely depends on the area, and what kinds of development takes place. Generally speaking, yes, building inward and upward is more costly ... however, the current market demand is more favorable for infill and less so for outward development compared to the last half of the 20th Century.

[GeneR]

Originally Posted by Chelito23

Ponderosa,

Do you think the growth on the west end will make it to Buckeye and Beyond heading SW towards Gila Bend? Or keep following the 10 due west? Or more NW over time?

Our Sun City based realtors remember not that many years ago they would talk to buyer clients about Sun City Grand. Many times those clients would say "we don't want to buy way out there!". Will development move NW of Phoenix? It's apparently happening now.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Nothing confusing about it. I check the data on Maricopa County Assessor's website and key in my address (which is located in zip code 85018 by the way). You can get all kinds of info on your home this way, including the valuation, property description, taxes, etc. In 2013, the full cash value of my house was less than $200,000, but in 2016 the full cash value is close to $400,000. This figures to be just over a 120% increase in three years' time.

I think MN is confused because he was assuming you were talking about Market Value, not the Assessed Value (most people only care about market value, as the assessed value is only used for tax purposes and is factored on a specific date, in this case it was figured in 2012 for your 2013 assessment you noted). Market values certainly have not more than doubled anywhere in the valley since 2013, but they are up. If you go back to 2011-early 2012 you get to the bottom of the market and that is the point from which large increases in market values can be found.

[observer53]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I was told that major swatches of land in the PHX area is owned by Indian tribes. More specifically the large pockets of open land near ASU and parts of Scottsdale, were tribal lands. Is this what explains the bulk of the 40% of open land inside of the city of Phoenix?

There's no tribal land "inside the city of Phoenix" that I'm aware of. It's all east of Scottsdale, south of Ahwatukee/Chandler, and south of Phoenix farther west. That's all still Phoenix area, but not inside the city.