Phoenix GDP Growth Slower than Flint & Detroit, 163rd Metro Area

[infocyde]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

From the AZ Biz Journal:

There was a 2.5 percent GDP growth rate nationally in the 292 U.S. metro areas examined by BEA. Real GDP accounts for inflation. Phoenix growth was 1.8%, behind Flint and Detroit. We have population growth here, so on a per-capita basis it's even more abysmal. There we are clear bottom feeders. This should be a big time wake-up call that our AZ policies are so anti-growth and not working. Really ugly.


http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/b...ess+Journal%29

AZ could improve, but for those not satisfied with it's growth Flint and Detroit are just a plane ride away I don't know how the numbers are calculated, but I'd say growth in the Phoenix Metro area is higher than either of those places. Your 20K house in the hood might appreciate faster than your Phoenix McMansion, but is that really the only metric you should be looking at? I sure didn't when I did my five years in the Detroit metro area. Glad to be back in "slow growth" AZ

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

From the AZ Biz Journal:

There was a 2.5 percent GDP growth rate nationally in the 292 U.S. metro areas examined by BEA. Real GDP accounts for inflation. Phoenix growth was 1.8%, behind Flint and Detroit. We have population growth here, so on a per-capita basis it's even more abysmal. There we are clear bottom feeders. This should be a big time wake-up call that our AZ policies are so anti-growth and not working. Really ugly.

Phoenix does need to do better as far as attracting more competitive corporate jobs which are occupied by highly skilled & educated people. Also, having more nationally recognized attractions and year round tourism would help with the GDP growth rate. As it is now, people seem to be content with having the attractions of Vegas & southern CA "close by", but all that does is funnel revenue out of state. There's no legitimate reason why Phoenix should be just a sunny, less expensive place to live with most of the fun touristy attractions being 250+ miles away. We have the opportunity to be a world class city & destination.

At the same time, I'm hesitant to compare Phoenix with Detroit or Flint, MI. Michigan's economy has been in shambles, and only recently has it started to improve. Phoenix has a much higher overall growth rate than Detroit, or any other city in that part of the country. Phoenix also has a much better quality of life than Detroit or many cities in MI, OH, PA, etc. We definitely need to improve in some key areas, but saying that things are "abysmal" or that we're "bottom feeders" is a bit over the top.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Phoenix does need to do better as far as attracting more competitive corporate jobs which are occupied by highly skilled & educated people. Also, having more nationally recognized attractions and year round tourism would help with the GDP growth rate. As it is now, people seem to be content with having the attractions of Vegas & southern CA "close by", but all that does is funnel revenue out of state. There's no legitimate reason why Phoenix should be just a sunny, less expensive place to live with most of the fun touristy attractions being 250+ miles away. We have the opportunity to be a world class city & destination.

At the same time, I'm hesitant to compare Phoenix with Detroit or Flint, MI. Michigan's economy has been in shambles, and only recently has it started to improve. Phoenix has a much higher overall growth rate than Detroit, or any other city in that part of the country. Phoenix also has a much better quality of life than Detroit or many cities in MI, OH, PA, etc. We definitely need to improve in some key areas, but saying that things are "abysmal" or that we're "bottom feeders" is a bit over the top.

Very good and thoughtful post. I think our current basic AZ economic model of attracting retirees with cheap services (one exception: health care can be top notch and expensive) and low taxes, along with cheap employers is broken for one simple reason: there is no more cheap labor coming to AZ. With the demographic changes in Latin America and the US Millennials trend to the big coastal cities and Austin the flow of legal and illegal immigrants from abroad and domestic young people has largely ended and will never resume to the scale of 1980-2007. There simple are not enough young people. The el cheapo economy is over. Building up the community instead of relying on self-sufficiency is the future. I hope we can adjust our priorities on time before we get punched in the face. Talk about face: let's face it as long as there is Sheriff Joe we are not ready for the necessary changes.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by YAZ

And you raise good points as well.


While two of the Big 3 received bailouts from us, we benefitted from HARP. Somewhat. It seems like the flippers benefitted the most though.


The thing is, many neighborhoods were already toast when I entered the labor force while living in the Detroit area....back in 1982. It's nuthin' new to them......


I don't think ours happened on a greater scale, it just happened quicker. But both happened because of fiscal policies. I'll leave politics out of it, as that's a whole 'nuther can 'o' worms......


Rental units here in Phoenix have skyrocketed, and it's actually more affordable to have a mortgage here now than to rent....and I don't see rent coming down EVER. Keep in mind that I haven't rented in quite a while so my opinion may not be in line with reality. It just seems that way.


A lot of kids here don't know the "Old Detroit", with their Tudor style, Victorian, and somewhat swanky bungalows that are so prevalent there. And you can pick them up cheap, if you're handy around the house and can handle the notsobad winters. I think that's the big draw...they're cheap. You're not living on the coast, but man...there's a lot of water around.


It doesn't hurt that some "Roosevelt Row" kinda folks are buying up the properties and injecting some gentrification into the equation either. Also doesn't hurt that the Ilitch family (Red Wings & Tigers owner), built up Campus Martius downtown with Comerica Park and the new Red Wings arena within walking distance. Others have contributed too, namely the Ford family with the Lions playing across the street from the Tigers.


Two world class universities in town (U of D & Wayne State), with many others close by (U of M, EMU, etc.), make it a ripe place for a comeback.


I like that ASU has a downtown campus in Phoenix. I think we should build on that. Sad to say that the Cards & Coyotes moved out of town..kinda reminds me of what the Lions and Pistons did. It didn't work very well. At least for the Lions....

Those are great points. Detroit needed some major clean up from epidemic corruption and dysfunction. I guess it's still not perfect but what we see is that the changes for the better that happened unleashed a torrent of improvement and growth in the city and surroundings. It's as if Sleeping Beauty has awakened.
Here in Phoenix we never sank to the same degree as Detroit did, but now "New Detroit" is pulling away from us. Instead of pointing fingers we now have to learn from them what they are doing better than us here. This is not the time to be complacent here and doing business as usual.

[kent_moore]

It is the trend that matters. Probably Flint and Detroit encountered several deficits from the past.

And I was right, Detroit was severely affected by 2008 financial crisis:


Phoenix was a little bit resilient.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by kent_moore

And I was right, Detroit was severely affected by 2008 financial crisis

And it could very well happen again given the sub prime auto loan market.

[Java Jolt]

I find it hard to believe that one of the fastest-growing modern cities rates lower than depressed rustbelt cities like Detroit and Flint.

This can't be right.