Wage growth in Phoenix is strongest in the nation (unemployment, landlord)

[outsideliving]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

Not sure how real that is...it doesn't have the number of jobs that increased, just an increase average of $2 per hour. Minimum wage increased from $8.05 in 2016 to $10 in 2017...considering the amount of minimum wage workers, and those making between $8.10 and $10, in the state (one report had that number at 790k people) that is definitely going to skew the numbers.

This is from the labor dept, these numbers are as real as we can get. The number of jobs increasing are another topic and phx is doing very well in that regard. It's funny that when the total number of jobs increase by a large amount the naysayers say that these are not high paying jobs. Seems like PHX can't win.

From your statement the 790k is for all of AZ, the wages above are for PHX metro. Tucson Metro would also be on this list as well if it was only the min wage increase.

Also min-wage is multiple deviations away from 26.75, so for there to be a high percentage of min wage workers to meaningfully impact the total wage number there would also have to be a corresponding large amount of much higher than average paid workers.

I bet the total of min wage workers in the phx metro is less than 10%, 10% of workers getting a $2 raise is not going to impact a $26.75 total very meaningfully.

I think that people extrapolate their personal situation and or location to the rest of the phx metro. I know I am guilty of doing this. That's why we don't use anecdotes to analyze data, instead we have data sets and try to interpret them as best we can. There are places in the Metro area that are doing amazing. My industry is constantly hiring and pay is increasing substantially. The areas I frequent (and my career) make it seem like all of the metro is in a Massive boom, but I forget that this is not always the case and need to follow the data to try to understand how our metro is doing.

[AZ_Rookie]

^^^ interjecting logic kills the drama - and therefore defeats much of the forum's purpose (for many).

I like your post

[KurtAZ]

Understood that the report is related to the Phoenix Metro...but lacking numbers broken down for where that increase came from, raising the floor is going to skew a percentage value.

Let's take the 2016 numbers...and this is in no way representative of the reality of wage differences, there are people that make exponentially more that minimum wage.

Sample Size: 1000
Minimum Wage: $8.10
Average Wage: $24.87

Taking your estimation of 10% on minimum wage, putting 80% at the average and 10% at $41.64 (again...more people earn WAY above this hourly, but for academic reasons, this forces the average) an increase to $10 on minimum wage pushes the Average wage .76% up to $25.06.

This is a VERY simple illustration, there are a ton more factors here and I am not saying that the Phoenix Metro, with it's growing Tech Sector, expanding medical services, Semiconductor manufacturing, etc. is not pushing the maximum wage up. I mean, there are a couple of YouTubers in the valley that earn over $100k per month that I am aware of if not more. All I am saying is that .76% would have tied us with San Francisco, depending what their numbers would change if we take into account their $15 minimum wage increase.

Anyway, not trying to be negative or anything, I just wish there were a link to the numbers and methodology behind them. Besides I am curious what our Maximum wage reported was

[outsideliving]

Maximum wage is not really a concept that would be tracked by Dept of labor, however there are multiple meanings to this Metro wage increase either:

1. We have many min wage workers and their 2 dollar increase in salary increased the total number substantially (shown above it doesn't make sense as the average is multiple std deviations above min wage)

2. The total amount of highly paid workers increased compared to the total amount of workers (which is what I think you are saying by maximum wage), (This is good news for the metro)

3. The amount of workers all received a large bump in pay (This is good news for the metro)

4. Combination of 2 and 3.


Even without the details I don't see how this can be spun negatively. There are many metro areas that had substantial min-wage increases and Phx metro is still on top this year.

Worst case (using your number), even being tied with SF is still a great thing for our metro as that is the area that every City wants to emulate (From a jobs perspective). Again I don't see any reason for negativity for these numbers.

[KurtAZ]

As I said..and I agree with what you are saying, I think we are just looking at it from a different perspective...that is a VERY simplistic illustration of the bottom of an average range affecting the overall outcome. I am not saying this isn't a good thing, just wondering how much that affected the overall increase.

This is very good news for the Valley and hopefully figures into Amazon taking a good look at us for HQ2. I talk to too many people from out of state in the course of my business that have VERY skewed opinions of Phoenix and AZ in general. Correcting those misconceptions is tedious to say the least...too many people are too hung up on the bad news that comes out of our state rather than seeing the many positives.

Anyway...on with the day.

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

Understood that the report is related to the Phoenix Metro...but lacking numbers broken down for where that increase came from, raising the floor is going to skew a percentage value.

Let's take the 2016 numbers...and this is in no way representative of the reality of wage differences, there are people that make exponentially more that minimum wage.

Sample Size: 1000
Minimum Wage: $8.10
Average Wage: $24.87

Taking your estimation of 10% on minimum wage, putting 80% at the average and 10% at $41.64 (again...more people earn WAY above this hourly, but for academic reasons, this forces the average) an increase to $10 on minimum wage pushes the Average wage .76% up to $25.06.

This is a VERY simple illustration, there are a ton more factors here and I am not saying that the Phoenix Metro, with it's growing Tech Sector, expanding medical services, Semiconductor manufacturing, etc. is not pushing the maximum wage up. I mean, there are a couple of YouTubers in the valley that earn over $100k per month that I am aware of if not more. All I am saying is that .76% would have tied us with San Francisco, depending what their numbers would change if we take into account their $15 minimum wage increase.

Anyway, not trying to be negative or anything, I just wish there were a link to the numbers and methodology behind them. Besides I am curious what our Maximum wage reported was

Avg wage is not a good metric, the median per capita wage is between $13-$14/hr

[Java Jolt]

What does it matter if the increased minimum wage is boosting the overall wage growth?

Wouldn't that be a good sign, and wouldn't it prove raising the minimum wage helps all workers who make an hourly wage?

[singlegirlinaz]

Originally Posted by outsideliving

Surprised that this hasn't been posted yet, https://azbigmedia.com/wage-growth-p...ongest-nation/

How much of this is due to the new min wage law? Probably not much as very few people get paid min wage.

Interesting comment in the link,

"Before the Great Recession in 2007, advanced industries accounted for less than half of the workforce in Phoenix (46 percent). Now those higher-talent, higher-wage jobs make up more than 60 percent of the Valley’s workforce."

This is exactly what I have seen in the last 10 years. This is a much more sustainable boom vs the housing boom.

Nice to see Phoenix is making positive strides in wage growth. Hopefully it won't mean too much of a hike in prices.

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by Java Jolt

What does it matter if the increased minimum wage is boosting the overall wage growth?

Wouldn't that be a good sign, and wouldn't it prove raising the minimum wage helps all workers who make an hourly wage?

Oh, here we go again. LOL. Except for the ones that get laid off because of the need for businesses to make that thing called a PROFIT.

[wannabeaTexan]

Anyone have an idea of how strong demand is for instructional designers? Corporate...not educational.