fountain hills real estate insanity (Phoenix, Tucson: 2014, HOA, custom home)

[asufan]

Originally Posted by kitshipp

Meh. At the peak of the bubble my house sold for $235k. It was just appraised for $190k. I think we're a ways off if there will be a bubble burst at all. Now, major hub cities - San Fran, LA, Seattle? That is going to be ugly.

Correct, we're not to 2007 levels at all and the economy is better. People here have been predicting the "bubble bursting" since 2013 on this site, one guy even predicted a bankruptcy for me because I was still in Real Estate. That was 5 years ago and he has vanished since then, but prices are certainly up from 2013. I do think there can be declines in the market, but not at all like 2007.

[Finper]

So cal and San Fran is way past peak last bubble prices. I have 760sq ft condo in the heart of Orange County. The peak bubble price was 310.00. Now my condo can be listed for 325.00. It makes me very nervous. Hope I can cash out and get to AZ before this bubble pops.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by Finper

So cal and San Fran is way past peak last bubble prices. I have 760sq ft condo in the heart of Orange County. The peak bubble price was 310.00. Now my condo can be listed for 325.00. It makes me very nervous. Hope I can cash out and get to AZ before this bubble popping.

Different market than here. You guys are getting artificial appreciation due to all of the Chinese investors. I know because we plan to move back to South Orange County in the future and have been following the market $1.2M in Laguna Niguel gets you a fixer upper with no view.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by jimj

Really? Have you looked at home prices around the Phoenix Metro lately? The house I'm currently in was built during the height of the boom and is now currently worth within $15k of it's original sales price.
New homes around the area are selling for over to well over what boom prices were for a comparable home back then.

You have to look a little deeper in some cases. In your case, I think you live in Waddell? (correct me if I'm wrong). Since 2005-06, a lot has changed out there that is exclusive of market conditions. For instance you now have the loop 303 freeway completed, there's more jobs out there, businesses, restaurants, schools, etc. What I'm saying is that in your case there's other external forces that may have pushed it above what it was at the height. Prior to the freeway being built, Waddell was "too far out there" for many, so the highs in 2005 may not have been the same as the highs in some more stable parts of town. If you compare the prices in an area that has been more stable over the past 10 years (ie not a "growth" area), you tend to see more accurate numbers. I have properties in Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, Scottsdale which have been more stable and they are not quite back to the highs of 2005 (getting close), but still well above the lows.

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by Zathras

This isn't true at all. FH has a higher avg cost per sf than most of the closer-in suburb cities. Scottsdale is the only one higher than FH.

That's not true. Paradise Valley and Arcadia (Phoenix, 85018) are pricier than much of Scottsdale. Silverleaf, Desert Mountain and the country club parts of DC Ranch may be the exceptions.

[Zathras]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

That's not true. Paradise Valley and Arcadia (Phoenix, 85018) are pricier than much of Scottsdale. Silverleaf, Desert Mountain and the country club parts of DC Ranch may be the exceptions.

Yeah, I didn't state that very well. I always think of PV as a part of Scottsdale but it isn't really. As its own town, PV is certainly at or near the top.

Within a given city there are also going to be substantial fluctuations. Even within FH, it fluctuates from the mid 140's to over 200/sf, with most in the upper 100's. Within Scottsdale there are areas under 150 and areas well over 300.

But to say that FH is 'much cheaper than the rest of the valley' is nonsense.

Originally Posted by Andrew Wilson

The main reason is that you have people that moved there from the valley or out of state and they soon realize that it's not that great. Then in order to move into a good area of the valley they list the house for more than they are typically worth.

This is also nonsense in my experience. I've lived there 8 years and no one I know thinks it's 'not that great'.. (except for this one guy that hates AZ in general and whines about everything...)

But it's a desirable area overall. If there were actually all these people 'realizing it's not great and trying to move', they wouldn't be listing for more than they're worth. That's not how supply and demand works.

[DetroitN8V]

I find this interesting. Below are the average list prices per sq ft for SFHs:

Paradise Valley: $458
85018 (Arcadia): $363
Fountain Hills: $277
85003 (Willo): $276
Scottsdale: $273

Granted the sample sizes are way varied. It's interesting though when a recurring comment is how "overpriced Scottsdale is". I guess it has plenty of company!

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by asufan

You have to look a little deeper in some cases. In your case, I think you live in Waddell? (correct me if I'm wrong). Since 2005-06, a lot has changed out there that is exclusive of market conditions. For instance you now have the loop 303 freeway completed, there's more jobs out there, businesses, restaurants, schools, etc. What I'm saying is that in your case there's other external forces that may have pushed it above what it was at the height. Prior to the freeway being built, Waddell was "too far out there" for many, so the highs in 2005 may not have been the same as the highs in some more stable parts of town. If you compare the prices in an area that has been more stable over the past 10 years (ie not a "growth" area), you tend to see more accurate numbers. I have properties in Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, Scottsdale which have been more stable and they are not quite back to the highs of 2005 (getting close), but still well above the lows.

Compared to Scottsdale, Chandler, & Gilbert, do you think houses in FH are overpriced currently?

[DetroitN8V]

What does overpriced even mean? Don’t buyers determine the market value?

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

What does overpriced even mean? Don’t buyers determine the market value?

In this context, probability of future appreciation or less depreciation (assuming the bubble concept were correct). I would have said in 2006, for example, that house prices in Phoenix were overpriced. Because I thought house prices were underpriced in he area in 2011, I purchased 3 houses here.