Plight of Phoenix

[Thomasaz]

I’m surprised by how many people are so optimistic about Arizona’s future water supply. I wouldn’t paint it as doom and gloom, but I think it’s certainly uncertain. We don’t know how things will go. Droughts have been a problem for us in recent years. Temperatures in this region of the US have been increasing faster than the rest of the US. Colorado River flow has decreased. Yes, we have Salt River. Yes, we will see less water usage from housing development over agriculture. That still doesn’t change the fact that there are some problematic aspects about our future water supply, which might not even be within our control.

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by Thomasaz

I’m surprised by how many people are so optimistic about Arizona’s future water supply. I wouldn’t paint it as doom and gloom, but I think it’s certainly uncertain. We don’t know how things will go. Droughts have been a problem for us in recent years. Temperatures in this region of the US have been increasing faster than the rest of the US. Colorado River flow has decreased. Yes, we have Salt River. Yes, we will see less water usage from housing development over agriculture. That still doesn’t change the fact that there are some problematic aspects about our future water supply, which might not even be within our control.

True but let me frame it this way. The region could experience no rain ever again, and we still have 11 years of water banked and 4 additional years stored to continue at our current rate. That’s a 15 year contingency plan.

There are eastern cities (where the doom and gloomers live) with less than 30 day plans in like conditions.

Are there uncertainties? Absolutely, but the facts paint a different picture than many believe. Many see this: desert city, growing population, problems with the Colorado River= Armageddon and that’s just not the case.

[DougStark]

Originally Posted by BIG CATS

Its not a good situation any way you look at it. There are too many people here, and yes, a prolonged drought will be devastating. The people of CA ignored the warnings for far too long, and look how they ended up. To think AZ will be immune to this is ludicrous. CA is shedding over 120K people a year, and most of them end up here. We are averaging close to 100 people A DAY moving here. We cant sustain this growth.

The counter-argument to your opinion is that Arizona (Phoenix area) can't thrive WITHOUT this growth. I don't claim to know where the truth lies.

Water "flows to money", so if worst comes to worse, they will plan and build de-salination plants, even though it's expensive water treatment.

[Thomasaz]

Originally Posted by JGMotorsport64

True but let me frame it this way. The region could experience no rain ever again, and we still have 11 years of water banked and 4 additional years stored to continue at our current rate. That’s a 15 year contingency plan.

There are eastern cities (where the doom and gloomers live) with less than 30 day plans in like conditions.

Are there uncertainties? Absolutely, but the facts paint a different picture than many believe. Many see this: desert city, growing population, problems with the Colorado River= Armageddon and that’s just not the case.

I know what you mean and that's why I said I don't necessarily agree with doom and gloom projections. It's just that we should remain aware of the issues that are inherent with living in a desert, where temperatures are increasing, largely due to increasing development of buildings and infrastructure.

I think the situation is a bit weird. Having agriculture lead to high water use, but the effect of growing crop and plants with little development maintained cooler temperatures in the valley. As development has happened, water use is coming down but we're seeing an increase in temperatures, especially during the night.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by Thomasaz

I know what you mean and that's why I said I don't necessarily agree with doom and gloom projections. It's just that we should remain aware of the issues that are inherent with living in a desert, where temperatures are increasing, largely due to increasing development of buildings and infrastructure.

I think the situation is a bit weird. Having agriculture lead to high water use, but the effect of growing crop and plants with little development maintained cooler temperatures in the valley. As development has happened, water use is coming down but we're seeing an increase in temperatures, especially during the night.

Agreed 100%. Long ago when the Phoenix area was smaller & agriculture was dominant, there was a noticeable cooling effect, especially at night & early morning. If you look at the NWS historical temperature data, it was actually quite common for low temps to be in the 30s (or even the 20s) during a good part of the winter season at Sky Harbor & downtown. In the summer, low temps often fell into the 60s & 70s. Now, it's considered abnormal for winter lows to drop below 40 degrees, and most summer lows are in the 80s & 90s. This is the result of the urban heat island effect.

As far as the drought is concerned, yes it exists and it certainly isn't getting any better with these abnormally dry winters (lack of snow in the high country and lack of rain here). Even so, we have plenty of water for the foreseeable future. My main concern on a personal level is the increase in water bills because it's been warmer & drier than normal. Something I'm much more concerned about than water is the tinder dry forest conditions that are likely going to result in a bad fire season later this spring & summer.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Agreed 100%. Long ago when the Phoenix area was smaller & agriculture was dominant, there was a noticeable cooling effect, especially at night & early morning. If you look at the NWS historical temperature data, it was actually quite common for low temps to be in the 30s (or even the 20s) during a good part of the winter season at Sky Harbor & downtown. In the summer, low temps often fell into the 60s & 70s. Now, it's considered abnormal for winter lows to drop below 40 degrees, and most summer lows are in the 80s & 90s. This is the result of the urban heat island effect.

As far as the drought is concerned, yes it exists and it certainly isn't getting any better with these abnormally dry winters (lack of snow in the high country and lack of rain here). Even so, we have plenty of water for the foreseeable future. My main concern on a personal level is the increase in water bills because it's been warmer & drier than normal. Something I'm much more concerned about than water is the tinder dry forest conditions that are likely going to result in a bad fire season later this spring & summer.

I was just at my place on the rim and it is really dry up there. The soil is dust with big desiccation cracks. It reminds me of the year when my oaks did not even get leaves. I wish they would put in fire closures now, but it seems that they always wait until thousands of acres are up in smoke to do that.

[locolife]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I was just at my place on the rim and it is really dry up there. The soil is dust with big desiccation cracks. It reminds me of the year when my oaks did not even get leaves. I wish they would put in fire closures now, but it seems that they always wait until thousands of acres are up in smoke to do that.

That sucks to hear, fingers crossed for an early and wetter than normal Monsoon.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by locolife

That sucks to hear, fingers crossed for an early and wetter than normal Monsoon.

An early monsoon usually means an increased risk for fires because it often starts with "dry lightning". Lightning caused fires can be just as devastating as anything human caused. Remember that the Granite Mountain Hot Shots died while trying to fight a fire started by lightning. We don't necessarily need early and wetter monsoon seasons ... we need wetter winters (or at least those that are more normal). Winter storms tend to be more widespread and bring the high country the needed snowpack which lasts well into the spring. Monsoon storms are usually more scattered, and don't always provide the essential steady soaking rains like the winter storms do.

[Zathras]

Originally Posted by LadyKatie3

Dumb question: Isn’t there plenty of water on earth? Just a question of cost/energy to clean, desalinate, transport? Oceans are full of it. We can turn matter into energy— won’t we be able to make water come out of the tap?

There is about the same volume of water on the planet today as there was a billion years ago. It's just a matter of the cost and energy to treat it and transport it.