Phoenix real estate softening? (Chandler: for sale, apartment, foreclosures)

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by Obadno

We are now net lil exporter increased oil prices only helps the Us now

Wrong and even more wrong in Phoenix, where higher gas prices depress demand just as always.

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by Meme Mann

Oh and one more point. Slightly discounted RE is not a big investment opp. You missed the last RE crash which started in 2008 and kept falling until summer of 2011. It ain't coming back.

So what - there will still be money to be made. The suggestion that only some would like to take advantage of that is illogical and flat out false.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by Meme Mann

Hardly, gas is still under 3 bucks. 6 or 7 years ago it was 3.50 to 4. Gas price is average in Phoenix compared to the rest of the country. BTW if you actually follow oil news oil dropped 4 bucks abbl the other day. OPEC is cranking up production to make up for the Iranian boycott. It's 71 right now which is well below the 15 year average, in 2011 in was well over 100 bucks. Plus the unemployment rate is half of what it was 7 years ago.

I agree and agree. Personally think we will avoid recession until 2022/23. I invest accordingly. Oil should stall / drop into 2019. Even a recession whenever it comes, and it could be years, should only minimally drop RE prices in Phoenix. It's almost useless to time the RE market as big, worthwhile drops only seem to happen every 20 years or more. Not worth waiting for. But right now the leading indicator M2 money growth is stalling and if it keeps dropping it will trigger a recession. So let's keep watching. If energy prices stabilize, the FED has no reason to keep drying up the money supply and that will prolong the current expansion. There are no excesses in the economy requiring further tightening.

[49erfan916]

I think a lot of real estate throughout the united states is softening. Just before I sold my house, my realtor said that there seems to be a shift of demand. (in my old real estate market)

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by 49erfan916

I think a lot of real estate throughout the united states is softening. Just before I sold my house, my realtor said that there seems to be a shift of demand. (in my old real estate market)

There is a lot of whistling past the graveyard going on in this thread and more broadly. It is reminiscent of 2006 or so. People buying today are probably buying at/near a local maximum on the price curve.

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

There is a lot of whistling past the graveyard going on in this thread and more broadly. It is reminiscent of 2006 or so. People buying today are probably buying at/near a local maximum on the price curve.

I really don't think so. Median RE prices are STILL 10% below where they were at the last market peak, which was now almost 12 years ago. That's not even taking inflation into account. That and people generally have more money to spend. Wage growth has been strong in Phoenix and has outpaced the nation for the past several years. Phoenix has also not seen the significant influx of California money that has pushed up prices in other western markets like Seattle, Portland, Denver, and more recently Las Vegas. It's coming, though. Look at Portland, Denver, and Las Vegas as examples of what can happen and likely WILL happen here in the next couple years. YOY Case Shiller index is actually increasing in Phoenix over the past 6 months. That means the market is gaining momentum. We haven't seen anything yet, and big announcements like Nationwide likely building a regional HQ here (2,500 jobs), and Deloitte announcing another 2,500 high paying jobs recently is only adding to that momentum. California residents and businesses are fleeing the high prices there and see the opportunity for lower costs in Phoenix. We all know what happens once they start REALLY investing over here. Be happy if you've bought in anytime in the past 8 or 9 years.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

There is a lot of whistling past the graveyard going on in this thread and more broadly. It is reminiscent of 2006 or so. People buying today are probably buying at/near a local maximum on the price curve.

This is not even close to 2005 and 2006. It’s understandable that people are worried because just like the 30’s the “Great Recession” has permanent changed the thoughts of those that lived through it, millennials for example , save more and take on less credit card debt than anyone since the 1950’s, the irrational fear that the econemy will crash because it’s going well is more or less a type of paranoia born of the recession

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Obadno

This is not even close to 2005 and 2006. It’s understandable that people are worried because just like the 30’s the “Great Recession” has permanent changed the thoughts of those that lived through it, millennials for example , save more and take on less credit card debt than anyone since the 1950’s, the irrational fear that the econemy will crash because it’s going well is more or less a type of paranoia born of the recession

On average, the millennials (like the Americans before them) are financial dimwits. See https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...events-n862376


*67% would have some difficultly time paying back a $1000 surprise bill.
*52 percent have less that $5000 in savings).

It looks like two thirds of the millennials need a lot more paranoia (as do the rest of the American population). Because they too spend spend spend.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

On average, the millennials (like the Americans before them) are financial dimwits. See https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...events-n862376


*67% would have some difficultly time paying back a $1000 surprise bill.
*52 percent have less that $5000 in savings).

It looks like two thirds of the millennials need a lot more paranoia (as do the rest of the American population). Because they too spend spend spend.

This doesn’t contradict what I said

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

On average, the millennials (like the Americans before them) are financial dimwits. See https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...events-n862376


*67% would have some difficultly time paying back a $1000 surprise bill.
*52 percent have less that $5000 in savings).

It looks like two thirds of the millennials need a lot more paranoia (as do the rest of the American population). Because they too spend spend spend.

To me it looks like they make no money and have a lot of student loan debt. I’m not surprised.

The story falsely equates the amount of debt with the most popular form. It says that 46% have credit card debt then goes into totals. I have credit card debt, maybe $500 or so at times. But I also have other debts. So if you add those up and imply it’s the credit cards it’s misleading.

Regardless, it’s my view that younger generations are getting shafted by tuition and wage stagnation. And tying it to this thread, as the story showed, few of them are even buying houses, so I don’t think it’s a factor for the possibility of existing homeowners defaulting.