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OP is a “realtor” and therefore understands complex economic theory.
Realtors are nothing but glorified salesman with a license a 14 year old could get. Your post means nothing.
Plus any idiot could make a 5-year prediction at the top of a record economy and be right. Stupid post.
That said, “New” home buyers should continue renting. Those already in a house who have rose appreciation is less of an issue unless you’re dramatically upsizing.
Cool it with the "realtors are idiots" post. There are plenty of idiots in every profession. OP would probably fall into this category, because he doesn't even live here yet thinks he knows everything. RE license is not difficult to get...I will concede to that statement. But just like everything in life, some people know the business and prosper, while others stay behind and get jealous and/or quit.
And to your point of being a "glorified salesman" I will say this - being a salesperson is a tough gig. It may not require a college degree (which I have), but it takes a lot of intangibles that can't be taught. There are plenty of sales(men) that make way more than you (I promise you that).
My point is...be humble. Quit being so quick to criticize another profession. Worry about yourself.
My point is that it's time to start the conversation. I sure wish that I had read a post just like this back in 2006 when I bought a home on the east side for almost 500k.
I rest assure you. MARK MY WORDS! Come back and look at this post 5 years from now. Whoever is buying a home in the Phoenix area right now today. Their home will very likely decline or drop in value in a few years. If you only put 5% or 10% down you will not even be able to pay off the mortgage if you sell it. Even if you put 20% down. The Phoenix housing market has reached yet another peak and it will almost certainly decline in value in the next few years.
By the way did anyone else notice how nicely Alan Greenspan's " SOFT LANDING" went? It's coming again!!!!!
I understand your point. I’ve been coming over here since 1984. One thing is a little different. Taxes. Taxes in other states are sending people in new directions. Politics are are also guilty. I’d agree there could be a drop but my bet is that it won’t be as drastic. I believe the demand is not the bubble it has been in the past.
That was pretty nasty about RE people. You were kind in your answer. I’m hoping to see less anger like that and more conversation like you tried to do SnoO909.
If I am a fool it is only for the purpose of helping others by giving them something to think about before they buy an overpriced home and then later suffer from a price correction. History has proven a few times that corrections do happen and the Phoenix housing market is certainly no exception. Now, has history ever repeated it's self? It very well may right there in the Phoenix housing market.
I was an idiot in 2006 when I paid $450k for a home that later dropped sharply in value. I was actually worried before closing on it but NOOOOOOO! Every single person assured me that my concerns were completely unfounded. PRICES WILL NEVER GO DOWN>>>NEVER! In Phoenix home values increase 10% every single year forever! Right? It is a guaranteed birth right because we are The Valley Of The Sun and that makes us special. Everyone will always want to live here because this is the promised land.. You rhome will be worth $1 million soon. don't worry. Sure. We have the best schools in the entire country. Bla, Bla, Bla …. I mean we have the 101, 202, 303, Scottsdale, Cahandler, Gilbert, Tempe, Val Vista whatever. Well it's the best place to live in the whole world. Right?
Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Intel, Google and every other big company is moving their headquarters here and we will be the center of the known universe because we are the Baum Diggity. That is what they tell you in the sales office where they sell the new homes. they even have a map on the wall to show you how close you will be to the new Intel Headquarters as well as the rest. Well they are full of it!!! Its all hogwash.
There was a correction in 2002 also but I didn't need to sell. There was also one in 1992 and 1986. I don't know why but in Phoenix the real estate values go up and down like a yo-yo. I suspect that it will happen again. I certainly would not advise anyone to buy right now. I bet most people on this thread got their house before 5 years ago when prices were lower. That was the time to buy but not today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sno0909
Cool it with the "realtors are idiots" post. There are plenty of idiots in every profession. OP would probably fall into this category, because he doesn't even live here yet thinks he knows everything. RE license is not difficult to get...I will concede to that statement. But just like everything in life, some people know the business and prosper, while others stay behind and get jealous and/or quit.
And to your point of being a "glorified salesman" I will say this - being a salesperson is a tough gig. It may not require a college degree (which I have), but it takes a lot of intangibles that can't be taught. There are plenty of sales(men) that make way more than you (I promise you that).
My point is...be humble. Quit being so quick to criticize another profession. Worry about yourself.
If I am a fool it is only for the purpose of helping others by giving them something to think about before they buy an overpriced home and then later suffer from a price correction. History has proven a few times that corrections do happen and the Phoenix housing market is certainly no exception. Now, has history ever repeated it's self? It very well may right there in the Phoenix housing market.
I was an idiot in 2006 when I paid $450k for a home that later dropped sharply in value. I was actually worried before closing on it but NOOOOOOO! Every single person assured me that my concerns were completely unfounded. PRICES WILL NEVER GO DOWN>>>NEVER! In Phoenix home values increase 10% every single year forever! Right? It is a guaranteed birth right because we are The Valley Of The Sun and that makes us special. Everyone will always want to live here because this is the promised land.. You rhome will be worth $1 million soon. don't worry. Sure. We have the best schools in the entire country. Bla, Bla, Bla …. I mean we have the 101, 202, 303, Scottsdale, Cahandler, Gilbert, Tempe, Val Vista whatever. Well it's the best place to live in the whole world. Right?
Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Intel, Google and every other big company is moving their headquarters here and we will be the center of the known universe because we are the Baum Diggity. That is what they tell you in the sales office where they sell the new homes. they even have a map on the wall to show you how close you will be to the new Intel Headquarters as well as the rest. Well they are full of it!!! Its all hogwash.
There was a correction in 2002 also but I didn't need to sell. There was also one in 1992 and 1986. I don't know why but in Phoenix the real estate values go up and down like a yo-yo. I suspect that it will happen again. I certainly would not advise anyone to buy right now. I bet most people on this thread got their house before 5 years ago when prices were lower. That was the time to buy but not today.
Yes, ps2cho was being a jerk. I'll modify her/his post to be kinder. Maybe he/she should have posted something like this:
"Unless the OP has done a tremendous amount of data mining and his vocation is in the field of economics/statistics, then his opinion is no different than another guy off the street. If his background was even more specifically related to the Pheonix area housing market, I'd be more inclined to listen. Instead, someone who sells houses in another state makes a 5-year prediction that there is going to be a slow down in the economy. Everyone walking the planet predicts that! After all, we are at the top of a record economy and like clockwork, there WILL be more recessions. Using his logic, you should only buy a house in a recession. Trying to time any market is never a sure thing."
I would add that the Cromford Report The Cromford Report is such a data mining company that specifically focuses on the Phoenix housing market stock. As soon as they predict downward pressure on housing, that's when I will be listening. Unless something happens like a nuclear missile launch from Korea (or Iran) or China having a global meltdown, the economy is too healthy causing the housing to continue to rise. If you sit on the sidelines for a couple more years while housing prices go up 5% a year, then you could have missed out. Realize whatever you decide to do is simply a guess. Unless of course, you have some data to back you up. Not gut feelings as they are worthless.
In fairness, the smartest people got it wrong last time. to show how much people differ, another group of the smartest people have been calling for a recession over the past several years. They got it wrong too. We have all heard the saying, "you are what you eat." I'll expand it to "you are what you Google". I bet the Op has been consuming doomsday opinions that is over his level of training. he bought it hook, line, and sinker.
jd433, my beef with your initial post was where you supposedly warned people last go-around in order to come off as an expert. No, you didn't! You got sucked in and lost it all. You were a gambler and were part of the problem. Gamblers use emotion with their decision to put money on and off the table. It lacks data and logic. That's where I put your prediction. It's just an emotional one without an ounce of data.
If I am a fool it is only for the purpose of helping others by giving them something to think about before they buy an overpriced home and then later suffer from a price correction. History has proven a few times that corrections do happen and the Phoenix housing market is certainly no exception. Now, has history ever repeated it's self? It very well may right there in the Phoenix housing market.
I was an idiot in 2006 when I paid $450k for a home that later dropped sharply in value. I was actually worried before closing on it but NOOOOOOO! Every single person assured me that my concerns were completely unfounded. PRICES WILL NEVER GO DOWN>>>NEVER! In Phoenix home values increase 10% every single year forever! Right? It is a guaranteed birth right because we are The Valley Of The Sun and that makes us special. Everyone will always want to live here because this is the promised land.. You rhome will be worth $1 million soon. don't worry. Sure. We have the best schools in the entire country. Bla, Bla, Bla …. I mean we have the 101, 202, 303, Scottsdale, Cahandler, Gilbert, Tempe, Val Vista whatever. Well it's the best place to live in the whole world. Right?
Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Intel, Google and every other big company is moving their headquarters here and we will be the center of the known universe because we are the Baum Diggity. That is what they tell you in the sales office where they sell the new homes. they even have a map on the wall to show you how close you will be to the new Intel Headquarters as well as the rest. Well they are full of it!!! Its all hogwash.
There was a correction in 2002 also but I didn't need to sell. There was also one in 1992 and 1986. I don't know why but in Phoenix the real estate values go up and down like a yo-yo. I suspect that it will happen again. I certainly would not advise anyone to buy right now. I bet most people on this thread got their house before 5 years ago when prices were lower. That was the time to buy but not today.
No, there was a big run up several years before the crash. Those jumps were huge i comparisons to the previous trends.
I see my Mesa homes ( 260,000 today) jump to 300,000 Jan 2021 and then to 340,000 by 2022 you best believe I will think about getting out.
No, there was a big run up several years before the crash. Those jumps were huge i comparisons to the previous trends.
I see my Mesa homes ( 260,000 today) jump to 300,000 Jan 2021 and then to 340,000 by 2022 you best believe I will think about getting out.
Also, the home I am sitting in is still worth about $100K below the price someone paid for it in 2006. AND I put in $40K more in improvements. I also stole those improvements when the labor was cheap. Next, I just got done comparing 2006 $$'s to 2020 dollars. If you factor that into the equation (adjusted for inflation to normalize the cost of housing), in many hoods, the homes in 2020 are waaaaaay lower than peak 2006 levels.
If I am a fool it is only for the purpose of helping others by giving them something to think about before they buy an overpriced home and then later suffer from a price correction. History has proven a few times that corrections do happen and the Phoenix housing market is certainly no exception. Now, has history ever repeated it's self? It very well may right there in the Phoenix housing market.
I was an idiot in 2006 when I paid $450k for a home that later dropped sharply in value. I was actually worried before closing on it but NOOOOOOO! Every single person assured me that my concerns were completely unfounded. PRICES WILL NEVER GO DOWN>>>NEVER! In Phoenix home values increase 10% every single year forever! Right? It is a guaranteed birth right because we are The Valley Of The Sun and that makes us special. Everyone will always want to live here because this is the promised land.. You rhome will be worth $1 million soon. don't worry. Sure. We have the best schools in the entire country. Bla, Bla, Bla …. I mean we have the 101, 202, 303, Scottsdale, Cahandler, Gilbert, Tempe, Val Vista whatever. Well it's the best place to live in the whole world. Right?
Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Intel, Google and every other big company is moving their headquarters here and we will be the center of the known universe because we are the Baum Diggity. That is what they tell you in the sales office where they sell the new homes. they even have a map on the wall to show you how close you will be to the new Intel Headquarters as well as the rest. Well they are full of it!!! Its all hogwash.
There was a correction in 2002 also but I didn't need to sell. There was also one in 1992 and 1986. I don't know why but in Phoenix the real estate values go up and down like a yo-yo. I suspect that it will happen again. I certainly would not advise anyone to buy right now. I bet most people on this thread got their house before 5 years ago when prices were lower. That was the time to buy but not today.
That answer is easier to understand.
We just bought and I’m hopeful. When I looked at the price history on the resale homes I looked at, you could see there was a rollercoaster in pricing.
What makes housing go up? Demand
What creates demand? Jobs and hope
How is the valley doing in creating jobs? I don’t know, but that’s where to look.
That answer is easier to understand.
We just bought and I’m hopeful. When I looked at the price history on the resale homes I looked at, you could see there was a rollercoaster in pricing.
What makes housing go up? Demand
What creates demand? Jobs and hope
How is the valley doing in creating jobs? I don’t know, but that’s where to look.
If I am a fool it is only for the purpose of helping others by giving them something to think about before they buy an overpriced home and then later suffer from a price correction. History has proven a few times that corrections do happen and the Phoenix housing market is certainly no exception. Now, has history ever repeated it's self? It very well may right there in the Phoenix housing market.
I was an idiot in 2006 when I paid $450k for a home that later dropped sharply in value. I was actually worried before closing on it but NOOOOOOO! Every single person assured me that my concerns were completely unfounded. PRICES WILL NEVER GO DOWN>>>NEVER! In Phoenix home values increase 10% every single year forever! Right? It is a guaranteed birth right because we are The Valley Of The Sun and that makes us special. Everyone will always want to live here because this is the promised land.. You rhome will be worth $1 million soon. don't worry. Sure. We have the best schools in the entire country. Bla, Bla, Bla …. I mean we have the 101, 202, 303, Scottsdale, Cahandler, Gilbert, Tempe, Val Vista whatever. Well it's the best place to live in the whole world. Right?
Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Intel, Google and every other big company is moving their headquarters here and we will be the center of the known universe because we are the Baum Diggity. That is what they tell you in the sales office where they sell the new homes. they even have a map on the wall to show you how close you will be to the new Intel Headquarters as well as the rest. Well they are full of it!!! Its all hogwash.
There was a correction in 2002 also but I didn't need to sell. There was also one in 1992 and 1986. I don't know why but in Phoenix the real estate values go up and down like a yo-yo. I suspect that it will happen again. I certainly would not advise anyone to buy right now. I bet most people on this thread got their house before 5 years ago when prices were lower. That was the time to buy but not today.
We? Dont you live in Houston?
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Hey take it easy
I bet the Op has been consuming doomsday opinions that is over his level of training. he bought it hook, line, and sinker.
