Caution! Home buyers! Possible price correction coming to Phoenix! (mover, tax)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by asufan

I'm certainly going to take advantage of some deals if they do present themselves, I'd be crazy not to be "greedy when others are fearful" ~ Warren Buffet. I think the OP just wants to see house prices go down so that he can appear to be "right" on an internet forum. As if he predicted a global pandemic

While I don't normally chase the stock market. It looks to be one of those once-in-a-blue-moon opportunities to take advantage of people's irrational fears. I've nibbled on a few SOLID stocks like Medtronic and Whirlpool. Boeing, SWA and others are on the radar too. IMO, more drops to come. But maybe we should ask the op.

Re: our RE guru/prognosticator. One day, there will be a PHX real estate saying: WWJDD?? Or, What Would JD (the Opp) Do?

[KurtAZ]

Originally Posted by asufan

I'm certainly going to take advantage of some deals if they do present themselves, I'd be crazy not to be "greedy when others are fearful" ~ Warren Buffet. I think the OP just wants to see house prices go down so that he can appear to be "right" on an internet forum. As if he predicted a global pandemic

Well of course, but YOU didn't post on an online forum doom an gloom in an attempt to drive down price expectations.

And yes, it is a ALMOST a good time to buy some stocks

[asufan]

Originally Posted by Hal Roach

Look at how well real estate took off after 9-11. Perhaps, the airlines are saying this is worse, but I don't think it is. I have even seen a bit of rebellion here with people gathering at the local commuter pier and watching the sunset with a cold beverage from 711, as always.

This HAS to be worse for the airlines than 9/11, due to being a longer term hit. It was business as usual not too long after 9/11 (with added security measures). The pandemic has been killing air travel for the past 2+ weeks and possibly will into the Summer. But the airlines will get help much like the auto industry did in the past. 2001 was a lot better than 2008 economy wise.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

Well of course, but YOU didn't post on an online forum doom an gloom in an attempt to drive down price expectations.

And yes, it is a ALMOST a good time to buy some stocks

I added to some positions when the market went down 15% early on, turns out I should have waited a little longer . At least as far as stocks go, I am in and out of them more quickly than mutual funds and had already cashed in SOME of my gains (not a majority). Will probably sprinkle a majority this year between market index ETF's and a few of the individual stocks I've been watching, however if real estate takes a plunge, that's where my focus will be. The local economy certainly seems light years stronger than it did in 2008, when the main industry was house construction, so I wouldn't predict anything like that collapse.

[AndroidAZ]

Originally Posted by asufan

I added to some positions when the market went down 15% early on, turns out I should have waited a little longer . At least as far as stocks go, I am in and out of them more quickly than mutual funds and had already cashed in SOME of my gains (not a majority). Will probably sprinkle a majority this year between market index ETF's and a few of the individual stocks I've been watching, however if real estate takes a plunge, that's where my focus will be. The local economy certainly seems light years stronger than it did in 2008, when the main industry was house construction, so I wouldn't predict anything like that collapse.

I wish you the best in market timing.

I invest as much as possible for the long run, and keep 6-12 month emergency funds on hand and enjoy my life.

I think the more one does frequent trading the more stressful / work it becomes, and the results in the long run are dubious at best in terms of winning against those who just stay in the market and set long horizons.

I think there are tons of studies that show people can't consistently time the market and outperform doing nothing in the long run. If you could consistently time the market and beat the index you should open your own investment fund and make billions.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by AndroidAZ

I wish you the best in market timing.

I invest as much as possible for the long run, and keep 6-12 month emergency funds on hand and enjoy my life.

I think the more one does frequent trading the more stressful / work it becomes, and the results in the long run are dubious at best in terms of winning against those who just stay in the market and set long horizons.

I think there are tons of studies that show people can't consistently time the market and outperform doing nothing in the long run. If you could consistently time the market and beat the index you should open your own investment fund and make billions.

It's not market timing necessarily. My wife maxes out her 401k which is I think $19,000 a year (plus a generous match), so that's all dollar cost averaged into the market over the year. With the other money that we have to work with that sometimes comes in from my business in lump sums, I think it's important to wait for "dips" or "buying opportunities". There's many stocks I like but not necessarily at current levels. And then theres volatile momentum stocks like TSLA that I made a killing on just buying and selling on peaks and valleys several times. I would never just blindly throw a large lump sum into the market if the market is at or near historical highs, for example. Anyway, this is probably more appropriate for the personal finance forum but interesting to see others strategies.

[AndroidAZ]

Originally Posted by asufan

It's not market timing necessarily. My wife maxes out her 401k which is I think $19,000 a year (plus a generous match), so that's all dollar cost averaged into the market over the year. With the other money that we have to work with that sometimes comes in from my business in lump sums, I think it's important to wait for "dips" or "buying opportunities". There's many stocks I like but not necessarily at current levels. And then theres volatile momentum stocks like TSLA that I made a killing on just buying and selling on peaks and valleys several times. I would never just blindly throw a large lump sum into the market if the market is at or near historical highs, for example. Anyway, this is probably more appropriate for the personal finance forum but interesting to see others strategies.

The problem is no one knows when the peaks and valleys are. People have been screaming the market and real estate has peaked since 2012. They've been wrong every year since until they weren't.

I would just blindly throw a large sum into the market if my time horizon was 10 years or more, because over that period of time no one can reliably beat the returns of the market without taking on significantly greater risk.

When you try to hold cash and assess when to throw it in the market, the equation becomes far more complex and the number of variables become greater.

Given the overwhelming complexity and timing, chances are most people will do worse than just throwing it in the market and let time do its thing.

So in my opinion, for the highest return with the lowest risk, don't time the market and just enjoy the ride.

Nothing wrong with trying to get more gains with more risk, but the statistics show most people tend to lose in that game.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by AndroidAZ

The problem is no one knows when the peaks and valleys are. People have been screaming the market and real estate has peaked since 2012. They've been wrong every year since until they weren't.

I would just blindly throw a large sum into the market if my time horizon was 10 years or more, because over that period of time no one can reliably beat the returns of the market without taking on significantly greater risk.

When you try to hold cash and assess when to throw it in the market, the equation becomes far more complex and the number of variables become greater.

Given the overwhelming complexity and timing, chances are most people will do worse than just throwing it in the market and let time do its thing.

So in my opinion, for the highest return with the lowest risk, don't time the market and just enjoy the ride.

Nothing wrong with trying to get more gains with more risk, but the statistics show most people tend to lose in that game.

If you pay attention you can absolutely see where the peaks and valleys are, with some volatile stocks like I mentioned. For the highest return, buy low and sell high and don't dump a bunch into the market when its at historical highs. Saving a little cash on the side for when opportunity presents itself is something I would strongly recommend.

[AndroidAZ]

Originally Posted by asufan

If you pay attention you can absolutely see where the peaks and valleys are, with some volatile stocks like I mentioned. For the highest return, buy low and sell high and don't dump a bunch into the market when its at historical highs. Saving a little cash on the side for when opportunity presents itself is something I would strongly recommend.

Again, the problem has been every historic high is a historic high until it isn't. The market has increased over the entire history of investing that every historic high is just that, a new high.

That's the way money works. It sets new highs over time. I predict the market will set historic highs until the end of our current modern civilization.

Trying to find a time frame when it reaches a peak and then falls before coming back to that peak and going higher is the problem we are trying to solve. And most of us suck at it.

I had guessed the Iran crisis threatening to turn into an all out war, trade war with China, Boeing 737 MAX debacle, California wild fires, etc., would pull us into a recession. Nope...a blip and then markets were roaring again. This Coronavirus seems like it might be the end of the world, but in fact we have no idea when it might turn the corner and markets roar again.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by AndroidAZ

Again, the problem has been every historic high is a historic high until it isn't. The market has increased over the entire history of investing that every historic high is just that, a new high.

That's the way money works. It sets new highs over time. I predict the market will set historic highs until the end of our current modern civilization.

Trying to find a time frame when it reaches a peak and then falls before coming back to that peak and going higher is the problem we are trying to solve. And most of us suck at it.

I had guessed the Iran crisis threatening to turn into an all out war, Boeing 737 MAX debacle, California wild fires, etc., would pull us into a recession. Nope...a blip and then markets were roaring again. This Coronavirus seems like it might be the end of the world, but in fact we have no idea when it might turn the corner and markets roar again.

Look up "peak and trough analysis" and you will see that there are people like me, that analyze the charts and recognize trends. You can say all you want that it's not possible, but I've been doing it on a small scale for over 20 years, others make entire careers doing it. I'm talking individual stocks, not index funds. While I have a lot of mutual funds and ETF's, I like individual stocks too and have earned considerably higher return on these over the years. I have no problem with what you do "investing" vs trading, but I enjoy trading as well. It's sorta like how the Colts/Cowboys game is OK TV, but a hell of a lot more interesting if I have $500 on the Cowboys.