Caution! Home buyers! Possible price correction coming to Phoenix! (Tempe: movers, condos)

[john3232]

Originally Posted by jd433

I hate waiting for the crash to come. It's like a hammer is about to fall but you dont know when.
In the mean time you dont know weather to buy or sell. Perhaps selling is the better financial decision right now. Yes, sell before prices go lower. But then you have to rent. Then you have to wait possibly for a couple years for the bottom before you can buy again. But then what if you are wrong?

When posters mention crash I think of a home sold in 2003 for 160 grand that went for 210 grand in 2004. Buy late 2005 that home was selling for around 260,000.

By Feb. of 2006 the market began to turn and the game of musical chairs or who is the last one holding the mortgage started to slow down.

Then in 2007 the music stopped and next came the price crash.

By 2010 the home which sold for 160,000 in 2003 was now worth 85-90 grand.

Don't see this happening again anytime soon... but having said that. If properties values suddenly skyrocket because anyone with a pulse is being approved for a loan I will unload.

[john3232]

US new home sales tumble in March
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/us-n...arch-2020.html

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by john3232

US new home sales tumble in March
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/us-n...arch-2020.html

At this point, lower activity by both sellers and buyers. No indication yet of a "price correction." A price correction will occur when the sellers are more motivated to sell than the buyers are to buy.

[jdahunt]

As soon as most of us knew what this was going to be I thought of putting our main unit up for sale but after doing some thinking about it I decided it wasn't going to be anything like 2008-2011......that took years to happen and this Covid19 issue is going to be over rather quickly.

We are going to see 6+trillion dollars go into the economy an amount in such a short time has never been done ever in our history.

There were 5 units that went up for sale.....in the past a unit would go pending usually within the first day or so....these units sat for a couple of weeks....all at high prices and one very high so I was thinking maybe things have slowed down.....they all went pending this week including the one priced very high.

So right now at least in our location the market is still red hot......will it continue?

[jdahunt]

Originally Posted by Maroon197

This forum is straight up bizarro world right now. It’s like phx posters are completely detached from reality. 22 million unemployment claims in a month. That’s so unprecedented it’s almost incomprehensible. And people are acting like everything is just going to instantly go back to normal as soon as social distancing measures are lifted. Yeah, ok. Sure thing.

The majority of those laid off will be called back with the SBA giving forgivable loans to small business's......for it to be forgivable the small business owner has to call the people back and you can bet they will be calling most if not all back before the end of June.

On top of that there were already too many job openings that were not being filled....my prediction is that by the end of June things will be getting back to normal.....and either in the 3rd or 4th quarter we are going to see a record 7-9% economic growth the likes not seen since 1984 under Ronaldus Magnus.

[Maroon197]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

The majority of those laid off will be called back with the SBA giving forgivable loans to small business's......for it to be forgivable the small business owner has to call the people back and you can bet they will be calling most if not all back before the end of June.

On top of that there were already too many job openings that were not being filled....my prediction is that by the end of June things will be getting back to normal.....and either in the 3rd or 4th quarter we are going to see a record 7-9% economic growth the likes not seen since 1984 under Ronaldus Magnus.

We already know there have been countless problems with small business actually accessing relief funds. And forgivable loans aren't going to make customers magically appear. If a restaurant is operating at 50% capacity, it won't be viable in the long term. If people aren't going to movies anymore because of virus fears, theaters won't be viable. Are people going to suddenly flock to air travel in the coming months? Nope. How about massive stadium concerts and sporting events? Nope. This isn't some time limited event that is magically going to go away as soon as the governor? (mayor? president?) says to "reopen." There will be ongoing ripple effects for a long time to come that will impact every sector of the economy, including housing.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

The majority of those laid off will be called back with the SBA giving forgivable loans to small business's......for it to be forgivable the small business owner has to call the people back and you can bet they will be calling most if not all back before the end of June.

On top of that there were already too many job openings that were not being filled....my prediction is that by the end of June things will be getting back to normal.....and either in the 3rd or 4th quarter we are going to see a record 7-9% economic growth the likes not seen since 1984 under Ronaldus Magnus.

There's indeed a lot electronic $$$'s being produced right now. This looks like what WW2 did to the US economy in terms of money printing and fiscal injections. Instead of 10,000s of tanks and bombers the target is now domestic business and consumers, but the effects will be similar. It will not be as extreme for sure - after the price controls ended 1947ish (?) CPI jumped by 50% once. Inflation will rise at some point here too.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by Maroon197

We already know there have been countless problems with small business actually accessing relief funds. And forgivable loans aren't going to make customers magically appear. If a restaurant is operating at 50% capacity, it won't be viable in the long term. If people aren't going to movies anymore because of virus fears, theaters won't be viable. Are people going to suddenly flock to air travel in the coming months? Nope. How about massive stadium concerts and sporting events? Nope. This isn't some time limited event that is magically going to go away as soon as the governor? (mayor? president?) says to "reopen." There will be ongoing ripple effects for a long time to come that will impact every sector of the economy, including housing.

I think you might be wrong about this. When I go shopping I'm beginning to see more people ignoring the social distancing rules. I believe this is happening because many people are no longer too concerned with becoming ill.

With regards to popular sporting events, concerts, bars and restaurants I think many will say, "Gee, now's the time to get a discount ticket or let's go to that popular breakfast cafe where we can never get a seat"

Housing: I sold my house in San Francisco last year about this time and thought, "How lucky! Had it been on the market this year I would have gotten a lot less..

But I've not noticed a price drop in SF (Outer Sunset) and this is because the number of homes on the market appears to have decreased.

[smoochaz]

Wow this thread has a life of its own created way before this crazy pandemic - I'm not sure what all has been said - pretty volatile things are changing as fast as write our thought process - however, according to the statistician Gods in our metro area - you know who I'm talking about

- we will NOT have a repeat of the last crash- banks were in trouble back then - it's a diff situation today
- only reason why you see a big drop now is that ibuyers are not buying <$300k mostly
- higher priced homes went off market to wait it out, PV, Scottsdale, etc. feeling it the most
- Last week was "Less Bad" - New Weekly Contracts Stopped Declining
- still very hot market in the <$500k with multiple offers
- SE valley still doing well
- Banks getting more restrictive with the credit score 700+ reqt
- Price is still same - however concessions are rising
- AirBnB/VRBO still out - selling or renting for long term
- Rent price is still remaining as is for now
- Yes Sales volume will suffer in the short term - but will most likely rebound

[Maroon197]

Originally Posted by john3232

I think you might be wrong about this. When I go shopping I'm beginning to see more people ignoring the social distancing rules. I believe this is happening because many people are no longer too concerned with becoming ill.

With regards to popular sporting events, concerts, bars and restaurants I think many will say, "Gee, now's the time to get a discount ticket or let's go to that popular breakfast cafe where we can never get a seat"

Housing: I sold my house in San Francisco last year about this time and thought, "How lucky! Had it been on the market this year I would have gotten a lot less..

But I've not noticed a price drop in SF (Outer Sunset) and this is because the number of homes on the market appears to have decreased.

Right, but the question isn't will some people immediately go back to life as usual. The question is will ENOUGH people instantly go back to life as usual, especially taking into account that we will see new outbreaks hit when restrictions are lifted. Opening up the economy is going to be slow, and vulnerable populations are going to still be advised to take extra precautions and limit exposure (such as staying home unless its necessary to go out). In industries with razor thin margins, like restaurants and airlines, it doesn't take a huge dip to have a dramatic impact. And then you get the ripple effect from there.