Caution! Home buyers! Possible price correction coming to Phoenix! (living, safety)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Re: a correction (which would have NOTHING to do with the OP's post). If we get a bad 2nd wave with COVID (we are in the 1st wave still) it could knock the legs out of part of the PHX RE market. The 2nd wave could start in October(ish). And it is normally worse. Also, people aren't thinking about the 3rd wave. For whatever reason, it is often the worst and longest wave.

If we have a 3rd wave and is bad and lasts a long time, we will all be in a world of hurt Personally, I think the stock market didn't anticipate properly. RE included.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Re: a correction (which would have NOTHING to do with the OP's post). If we get a bad 2nd wave with COVID (we are in the 1st wave still) it could knock the legs out of part of the PHX RE market. The 2nd wave could start in October(ish). And it is normally worse. Also, people aren't thinking about the 3rd wave. For whatever reason, it is often the worst and longest wave.

If we have a 3rd wave and is bad and lasts a long time, we will all be in a world of hurt Personally, I think the stock market didn't anticipate properly. RE included.

Many doctors are saying that the first stage of a vaccine will start being given to elderly and first responders in as soon as September or October. If that's the case and one or two of the vaccines are working by then, I'm not going to worry about a third wave. At least not right now.

[Oklazona Bound]

Originally Posted by asufan

Many doctors are saying that the first stage of a vaccine will start being given to elderly and first responders in as soon as September or October. If that's the case and one or two of the vaccines are working by then, I'm not going to worry about a third wave. At least not right now.

There is no guarantee that a vaccine will be ready as soon as September. That is way ahead of all the timelines I have read. And anyone giving specific months of when a vaccine will be available is just doing wishful thinking.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound

There is no guarantee that a vaccine will be ready as soon as September. That is way ahead of all the timelines I have read. And anyone giving specific months of when a vaccine will be available is just doing wishful thinking.

Nowhere did I say there is a guarantee, try reading the words on the screen. I merely said I'm not going to be concerned about a "third" wave at the moment. We're currently in the first wave and companies are busy making vaccines with the earliest possible dates in September or October.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by asufan

Nowhere did I say there is a guarantee, try reading the words on the screen. I merely said I'm not going to be concerned about a "third" wave at the moment. We're currently in the first wave and companies are busy making vaccines with the earliest possible dates in September or October.

For all of our sakes, I REALLY hope we get something by around the 1st of the year that works. Not many experts are thinking that a "sterilizing" vaccine will ever happen. i.e., like polio or 100% cure. Rather, at best, a measle like a vaccine. So down the road when you get COVID, the impact will be minimized. Here is a great article that discussed what I just mentioned. It's worth the read https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/...g-their-power/ Statnews is a trusted source.

As I have mentioned before in earlier posts, I cater to technical customers. Coincidentally, I was talking to a new customer on Wednesday who is a scientist that use to work with the development of vaccines. I asked what his former colleagues think will happen with the vaccine. His personal opinion was there was no chance of a sterilizing vaccine. And the article I linked seemed to agree. He said that most people who are closer to this assumption that the absolutely earliest worthy vaccine will be February. These are nothing more than educated guesses. But it got me thinking a little differently. My customer was also the person who introduced my brain to the 3 waves which I've never thought about before. And according to him, there will be three waves. The question will be if the 3rd wave will be minimized because of a decent vaccine. This is way over my paygrade, but I thought I would share.

So like the Harvard researchers that were in the linked article, he also suspects it's going to take two rounds of development. If round one gets close to make an impact by even Feb, he thinks we will be lucky. Fingers crossed.

Next, I was talking to a customer that is the VP of credit at a large international bank. The kind of guy who says, SWA would have to approve loans to say SWA or other big companies. We were talking about what airlines are modeling for revenue and he said they assume terrible travel for at least 12 months. His POV was the stock market euphoria is banked on 2 things. 1. A fairly fast working vaccine and 2. fed policies that continue to fund the crippled economy. Fr one prediction, he said that United will go down for the count. He thought Delta and SWA will survive. But wholly crap...
If big names tank, that will be some blow to the economy. Obviously the stock market assumes that we will climb in any amount of debt that it takes too. Probably so....

My point in all of this is that we agree, the economy and housing to some degree will be hinged on this vaccine. A whole lot of people are blindly assuming it's easy. I was in that camp until I did a little more reading on the topic. I'm glad I'm more liquid. Cash flow has been known to kill a lot of businesses. Which he mentioned they are concerned a lot of bankruptcies are coming this fall. It's going to get interesting and we all have a front-row seat.

[wit-nit]

Dr. Fauci said in an interview that he hoped there would be some vaccines by the 1st of the year and that they would be experimental and the people getting the vaccine would actually be guinnea pigs testing the formulas to see what actually works, and that it would probably be a year or more before a successful vaccine would be available for everyone.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by wit-nit

Dr. Fauci said in an interview that he hoped there would be some vaccines by the 1st of the year and that they would be experimental and the people getting the vaccine would actually be guinnea pigs testing the formulas to see what actually works, and that it would probably be a year or more before a successful vaccine would be available for everyone.

If you happen to locate that interview, I would like to see it. It sounds like every technical mind is in an agreement. The politicians are giving us warm and fuzzies that September or January 1st is “hopeful”.

[azbound621]

For a virus that has a mortality rate less than 1 percent people should remember that. Yes it is horrible that anyone should lose their life over a disease that spread from China. But herd immunity and a vaccine should eliminate this soon. As far as vaccines go, will every one get it or will they shun it like they do the flu vaccine?

[FlurryCat]

Originally Posted by azbound621

For a virus that has a mortality rate less than 1 percent people should remember that.

Mortality rate doesn't matter unless we get the spread under control. One percent of Americans, one percent of Arizonans, one percent of Phoenicians, or even just one percent of the people on my block is too many. And it's not just mortality. Many survivors, even those with mild symptoms, are suffering serious damage to their lungs and other organs. I suspect that in 30 years or so we'll be seeing a lot more people around town with oxygen tubes.

Originally Posted by azbound621

Yes it is horrible that anyone should lose their life over a disease that spread from China.

I, for one, would gladly die as long as I could catch something that originated right here in the Good Ol' U S of A.

Originally Posted by azbound621

But herd immunity and a vaccine should eliminate this soon.

We're a long way from herd immunity and the only way to get there is to sacrifice a lot of people. Neither herd immunity or a vaccine will eliminate this. More likely they will lessen the spread and the impact and the disease will settle in as a nasty flu-type thing that makes the rounds annually.

Originally Posted by azbound621

As far as vaccines go, will every one get it or will they shun it like they do the flu vaccine?

There are many right here on C-D that have stated they will not get a vaccine. At least one person here even bought into the "just an excuse to inject us all with tracking chips" thing.


To get back to the topic at hand - I have many investments and my house isn't one of them. Don't care if I over-paid at peak and the market craters and the place is only worth pennies when I die from the Cleveland Flu. It's my home.


If you need to move for work or family or whatever and you are going from a down market area to a hot one, or vice versa, that's a situation that will always exist and you just need to deal with it.



If you're a real estate investor you take your risks and ride the cycles the same as with any other investment (or you get big enough for the Fed to bail you out when the market tanks).

[Sno0909]

I won't get the vaccine. Sorry, I don't put things in my body that haven't had years of testing. I don't even get a flu shot. I know plenty of people in my camp on this issue. And it has nothing to do with Christianity or political ideology. A lot of natural (hippy type) people who typically vote to the left of center also won't get it. You know the type; people who use essential oils to treat strep throat.