This housing market is unsustainable. Why? And when will things cool down again? (Phoenix: loans, homes)

[john3232]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

Okay...so question for all the landlords on here. How many of your tenants are behind on rent and as soon as the moratorium is lifted intend to evict them?

This is what I have heard through the grapevine is going to be the turning point of the housing market. Say 25% evictions, the mortgage on the actual home hadn't been paid or is severely deficient...leading to a drop in rent and/or distressed former rental properties hitting the market in June/July. Recent trends are finding some renters catching up on their past due but there are still some 7M Americans behind on their rent.

First, I don't think the moratorium is going to be lifted anytime soon. Second all of the renters I removed (except one) since the pandemic started had been placed by a PM company I was using before moving to AZ. (Which helps explain why they were so crappy.)

Last year I terminated the lease of a couple who had unauthorized occupants living in the house. However, a notice to end their month to month lease been sent just before the state moratorium was announced.

I had renters who signed a lease agreement in 2019 that expired in Nov. 2020. I noticed last summer there was now an unauthorized couple and their three children living in the home. I elected not to renew the lease agreement. My RE attorney said that was fine.

(When a renter signs a lease agreement it is for 1-yr. Then it rolls over to month to month. I usually know within 10 months if I want to keep the renters or terminate the lease agreement.)

In 2020 I realized renters in one of my properties had been doing unauthorized work inside the home. The final straw was when the wife called to say there was an issue with the AC and recommended a specific company. After a bit of digging I learned their son had recently been hired by the company in question and would be doing the work. When I balked the husband backed down and said the AC was fine. He knew they were getting a great deal on the rent. Not long after I mentioned to the renters I was thinking about selling. (They were on month to month.) That I was going to take the money and run early 2021. Maybe a month or so later they decided to leave.

At present I only have one renter left from the days when PM was handing my homes. I'd like to remove her given she has an unauthorized guest (boyfriend I assume) living there, the back yard is a mess and she's paying a good $400 under market rate. However, now is not a good time. I'll wait until early 2022 and see about removing her.

My renters understand repairs will be addressed right away and I want the rent paid on time. They are also aware I will move towards eviction if rent isn't received. (I run everything by an RE attorney to be sure I follow the letter of the law.

Thus far I've had few problems receiving rents on the 1st of the month.

[Sno0909]

Originally Posted by asufan

I understand your frustration. I wasn't going to take the money but when I saw the names of people with 8 and 9 figure net worths and political connections taking money, I was going to get mine too. My family comes first for me and that's that

Same. I refused it for a few days out of principle. Then I saw who else got them and realized that the money has already been allocated - so why the hell not?

[Runnn]

The RE & DOW Jones corrections this time around will be triggered by GEO political events, I predict. Watch for China, Iran, N. Korea, Russia, etc to get involved in something nobody predicted.

All the so called experts keep saying "this time is different," (never heard that before, huh) and they couldn't be more correct. However, it won't be for the reasons they think...

[Tall Traveler]

We had 3 rentals in Phoenix metro and none got behind on their rent. One of the renters asked for a rental forbearance after her teen aged son contracted covid for a couple of months but then caught back up and is current.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Runnn

The RE & DOW Jones corrections this time around will be triggered by GEO political events, I predict. Watch for China, Iran, N. Korea, Russia, etc to get involved in something nobody predicted.

All the so-called experts keep saying "this time is different," (never heard that before, huh) and they couldn't be more correct. However, it won't be for the reasons they think...

I'm impressed. It sounds like you are the expert we have all been looking for. I don't want to listen to a so-called expert, I want to take advice from someone like you who is one. I assume you are shorting real estate investment trusts or (REITs)? Good luck!

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

re: the mortgage forbearance. Last Fall, it was around 3.7 M people behind in payments with 2.7M severely behind. That's NOT good. In Feb, they extended in by 3 months. Still, the people behind in mortgage payments have dropped for the past 22 weeks in a row. Now we are down to around 2.5M behind. I'm assuming that people don't want to lose their equity or get kicked out. After all, they would have to rent. With how cheap money is right now, the difference between buying and renting was squeezed. With inflation worries, now isn't the time to let your home go back to the bank.

I could easily imagine that the Biden administration extends it for another 3 months and even more people will catch up. But we will have to tap our new forum RE and Dow expert to see what he thinks. When North Korea shoots a nuke towards Minneapolis by mistake (they thought it was a taser), that's when Mpls real state will tank. You heard it hear 1st! lol

[KurtAZ]

Good to hear on the most of the rentals/landlord situations. We have a family friend that works for a PM company and she has had a different experience. I am sure the rent moratorium comes up in lower income rentals (especially if they don't have the 2-6mo recommended income savings in reserve) and many renters (or mortgages in forbearance for that matter) don't realize that the bulk is going to be due at some point.

I would think that the mortgage situation would be better since most folks are seeing a large appreciation on their properties so rather than lose their homes they would opt to sell. Trying to find a reasonably priced rental right now is crazy or they would have to re-buy but that forbearance is actually lates on the credit report so would most likely put them out of reach for financing without a large down.

Anyway...Thanks for the input. There is a lot of fear mongering out there about an impending crash due to the moratorium, sounds like that may be bit overhyped.

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

Good to hear on the most of the rentals/landlord situations. We have a family friend that works for a PM company and she has had a different experience. I am sure the rent moratorium comes up in lower income rentals (especially if they don't have the 2-6mo recommended income savings in reserve) and many renters (or mortgages in forbearance for that matter) don't realize that the bulk is going to be due at some point.

I would think that the mortgage situation would be better since most folks are seeing a large appreciation on their properties so rather than lose their homes they would opt to sell. Trying to find a reasonably priced rental right now is crazy or they would have to re-buy but that forbearance is actually lates on the credit report so would most likely put them out of reach for financing without a large down.

Anyway...Thanks for the input. There is a lot of fear mongering out there about an impending crash due to the moratorium, sounds like that may be bit overhyped.

6 months savings lol, from what I've found on Google, only 1/3 of Americans who earn over $50k per year have 6 months worth of income saved, and I'm sure that percentage drops precipitously with incomes below $50k per year. Low income people usually can't keep up with COL enough to even have savings

[DAXhound]

I own a popular REIT, Global Net Lease (GNL). It pays an 8.4% dividend. After getting nearly cut in half during March/April 20, it is within 10% of its pre pandemic price. More importantly, is that they reported last week that 99% of their Q1 rents had been paid.

[LMC White Collar]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

I would think that the mortgage situation would be better since most folks are seeing a large appreciation on their properties so rather than lose their homes they would opt to sell. Trying to find a reasonably priced rental right now is crazy or they would have to re-buy but that forbearance is actually lates on the credit report so would most likely put them out of reach for financing without a large down.

Market crashes often lead to swift and significant reductions in home values. Coupled with the fact that the average time for a home purchase loan to be approved and fund/close is approaching 50 days, the chance for a distressed seller to gain as much equity in August or September 2021 as they currently have (April 2021) could in fact be slim.

Thus, a seller who has fallen behind has a good amount of equity today - but when the moratorium is lifted, many still won't be able to catch up and/or get current. Many may try to sell, but if the number of sellers is in fact high, prices will be pushed down by this fact alone.

Well-informed and educated buyers (of which there are many more in 2021 compared to previous cycles of falling home values, thanks to dedicated real estate websites and social media saturation) will push the seller and the seller's agent to lower the price during the 45-50 day timeframe for their home loans to be approved.

I could go on in further detail, but I'd suspect that many here can grasp what I'm leading to: once the moratorium is lifted, there will be a swift and sure "correction" for home values/sale prices.